$12/180 FT ATo shove

[taipan168]

Ran this in SNG Wiz and it has it as a slightly -EV shove with calling ranges of opps around 8-10%. Any comments?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 12 Tournament, 1500/3000 Blinds 300 Ante (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t9688)
Button (t86950)
SB (t40110)
BB (t44076)
UTG (t14492)
UTG+1 (t17156)
Hero (MP1) (t36392)
MP2 (t21136)

Hero's M: 5.27

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, 10
2 folds, Hero bets t36092 (All-In)

[kstarm]

I tend to be a little more conservative. Reads and image are always nice to help give advice, but my experience has been that people play these 180 final tables fairly loose, and that there is a good chance you will be down 2-3 players in an orbit or two. I know that moving up one or two spots on the pay scale is not a big deal to you, but I think being a little more selective and utilizing position while everyone else starts shoving wide will yield better results in the long run.

[Extremophile]

I really don't like going all in with this hand at MP or EP if I have like 11-12 BB and there are shorter stacks. These guys will have TT+ and AJ+ significant % of the time and we are flipping against 88-99. ATo is good only to steal, not to collect collect chips if we get called.

There are 3 guys with shorter stacks and 2 guys with stacks similar to ours. There is a significant chance that these guys will eliminate each other. The two shorter stacks are on our left and I'd rather shove over these guys with weaker hands. All in all, I fold this hand.

[mcatdog]

Well I don't know where you are getting your calling ranges but I can tell you that any winning reg in the $12/180s will snap-fold 77 or AJo to this shove, except for the guy with 3 BB and you don't care if he calls. I'd give the others calling ranges of 5-6%, and it's still a marginal shove. I might pass on it depending on other stuff, such as how loose the table is playing as another poster mentioned.

[hopeful]

I think i like the shove here. With an M of 5 you have to move, the blinds will be destroyed if tey call and loose. The button is chip leader but your stack is big enought to make a huge difference. I think the calling ranges for wiz are the key here. I think people will need AQ or better to call this bet. A lot of players would fold 77,88,99 and maybe TT so the range might be 5% or less

[revolvingiris]

If these guys are tight I would shove.

Button (t86950)
SB (t40110)
BB (t44076)

Mcat is correct about the snapfold of 77 and AJ but this is entirely player dependent. If I knew you were shoving Ax from this position 77 and AJ would be gold to me.

[mcatdog]

Mcat is correct about the snapfold of 77 and AJ but this is entirely player dependent. If I knew you were shoving Ax from this position 77 and AJ would be gold to me.

OK, but there's a pretty big difference between AT and any A.

[Im_new]

Mcat is correct about the snapfold of 77 and AJ but this is entirely player dependent. If I knew you were shoving Ax from this position 77 and AJ would be gold to me.

OK, but there's a pretty big difference between AT and any A.

+1

If we were had 1bb less, would be still fret about this shove? Where does this shove reach it's limit on either side? Personally, I fold here.

[revolvingiris]

Mcat is correct about the snapfold of 77 and AJ but this is entirely player dependent. If I knew you were shoving Ax from this position 77 and AJ would be gold to me.

OK, but there's a pretty big difference between AT and any A.

Yeah no I wasn't saying that. I was just referring to taipan's image compared to the likely hood of his hand getting folds. I'm guessing taipan wasn't being too out of line but on the off chance that the table viewed him as shoving wide. Then AT might as well be Ax as hes getting snapped with much wider than 77 and AJ.

Overall I agree with everything you said. I was just trying to add a little more.

[mcatdog]

Yeah no I wasn't saying that. I was just referring to taipan's image compared to the likely hood of his hand getting folds. I'm guessing taipan wasn't being too out of line but on the off chance that the table viewed him as shoving wide. Then AT might as well be Ax as hes getting snapped with much wider than 77 and AJ.

If he's getting snapped much wider than 77 and AJ then how is AT equal to Ax? In that case villains' ranges will be filled with hands that are flipping or losing to AT but beating A2. If anything AT is close to Ax if they are calling taipan tight, but even then they aren't quite equal.

Also, if you're excited to call with hands "much" worse than 77 and AJ at a final table (even against clowns) then you are playing way too loose and ignoring ICM.

[Extremophile]

It may not be the best thing to do but, folding is never bad here.

[revolvingiris]

If he's getting snapped much wider than 77 and AJ then how is AT equal to Ax? In that case villains' ranges will be filled with hands that are flipping or losing to AT but beating A2. If anything AT is close to Ax if they are calling taipan tight, but even then they aren't quite equal.

Also, if you're excited to call with hands "much" worse than 77 and AJ at a final table (even against clowns) then you are playing way too loose and ignoring ICM.

AT=Ax because the stacks that have taipan covered will call wider if he has been looser and/or more aggressive. His actual hand doesn't really matter here being he risks elimination if called. Again, I'm not saying fold. I shove here almost all of the time. The only time I wouldn't is if I knew one of the bigger stacks was going to call me light.

There are 9 people left in this tourney. You know as well as I do that you can easily find a call using ICM with both 77 and AJ. I never said I was excited about it. I simply said if your shoving Ax from this spot then I would call with both and worse.

Hand 0: 56.606% { 77 }
Hand 1: 43.394% { 22+, A2s+, KQs, A2o+, KQo }

Hand 0: 55.166% { AJo }
Hand 1: 44.834% { 22+, A2s+, KQs, A2o+, KQo }

Its not very hard to find an ICM call when your a 55%+ fav.

[mcatdog]

AT=Ax because the stacks that have taipan covered will call wider if he has been looser and/or more aggressive. His actual hand doesn't really matter here being he risks elimination if called.

If his hand doesn't matter, then does AA equal 72o?

Any time you go all-in your hand matters.

[revolvingiris]

If his hand doesn't matter, then does AA equal 72o?

A) If taipan only shoves with AA 100% of the time no one will call him. If taipan then adds 72o to his shoving range no one will still call him regardless of his true holdings. B) If his range is ATC here then he will only show up with AA a small % of the time.

A) Tai will get more folds and no value on AA but more value with 72o.
B) Tai will get more value on AA but will lose more on average because his AI will be called when he is behind more often.

So if the above is true, which I believe it is. AA is only as strong as the rest of your range (same with 72o).

When taipan shoves here he is basically blind stealing from MP into 3 stacks that have him covered. His image determines the range that villains will put him on and in turn dictates the success rate of his shove. You can't just say regs will snap fold AJ and 77 just because they are AJ and 77.

[mcatdog]

AA is only as strong as the rest of your range (same with 72o).

WTF? I was with you up until here but this is just head-explode material.

When I said winning regs would fold AJo or 77, it goes without saying, that I'm assuming taipan isn't playing like a complete retard. ATo should be about the bottom of his shoving range, which it probably was given that he thought this hand was close enough to post it. And if ATo is at the bottom of his range then those guys in the blinds have to fold AJ because of ICM.

[revolvingiris]

AA is only as strong as the rest of your range (same with 72o).

WTF? I was with you up until here but this is just head-explode material.

I think I worded it weird. Whats the point of getting AA if your not going to get value from it? If the rest of your range is obv tight your going to lose out on value AA could potentially bring. So your range is directly effecting the strength of your AA. In this case it would be for the worse. However, your 72o would be worth more because you would generate more folds every time you played it like AA.

Simplest form: AA in itself is strong but if your entire range is strong your going to lose a ton of value.

I'm over explaining myself I think but its hard for me to put things into words sometimes.

edit: Mcat I agree with everything else you said