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99 in the BB on the bubble, SB shoves ($27)

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  1. #1

    Default 99 in the BB on the bubble, SB shoves ($27)

    Interesting range-dependent hand. SB is NOT shoving ATC here (even though he probably should), he has open folded to me a couple of times on the bubble.

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 27 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds 25 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    Button (t1525)
    SB (t6030)
    Hero (BB) (t2790)
    UTG (t3155)

    Hero's M: 6.97

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 9
    2 folds, SB bets t6005 (All-In), Hero ????
  2. #2
    ok well lets give him a conservative range of like 34%, which is basically: [22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,A2o+,K8o+,Q9o+ ,JTo,T9o,98o]

    his range could also be wider here, as it is entirely possible he had garbage hands like 23o and 24o the last few times he gave you a walk


    against that range with 99 you're due to win 62% of the time,

    EV (call and win) = $76.30
    EV (call and lose) = $0.00
    EV (fold) = $51.56

    so to call here:
    EV = (.62) ($76.30) + (.38) (0)
    EV = $47.31


    $51.56 in equity if you fold and $47.31 equity if you call is a loss $4.25 to call here which makes the EV of calling -$4.25

    i think
    [21:38] <dranger> WTF HAPPENED WHEN I WENT TO BOOT CAMP
    [21:40] <kiwiMark> THERE IS A NEW PRESIDENT OF THE UNITES STATES CALLED BARACK OBAMA AND HE'S NOT VERY WHITE
    [21:40] <kiwiMark> THIS IS NOT A LEVEL.
  3. #3
    I would probably fold given your read and stack sizes


  4. #4
    Fold. You have enough chips to wait for a better spot. Its at best a coin flip I bet, unless the raiser is just trying to push his stack around (possible).

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