JJ preflop decision against UTG raiser ($27)

[taipan168]

UTG is a winning multitabler (1Do2Den007). I have lots of hands on him and his UTG opening raise is going to be tight. What's your preflop decision?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 27 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 (t1620)
MP2 (t1490)
CO (t1425)
Hero (Button) (t1245)
SB (t1545)
BB (t3160)
UTG (t1445)
UTG+1 (t1570)

Hero's M: 16.60

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J
UTG bets t150, 4 folds, Hero ????

[Extremophile]

With your read, this is a fold. It is tough to play JJ postflop, especially against this guy. Otherwise, I'd shove.

[ThinkDustin]

Call and see a flop at least. You are in position. Raising to 600 isnt a bad move either.

[taipan168]

Call and see a flop at least. You are in position. Raising to 600 isnt a bad move either.

To me the choice is either call or fold, if we raise to 600 and get shoved over we are in a very bad spot. This guy's UTG raise range is something like 88+, AJ+ but he would only shove over with something that beats us.

[Extremophile]

What if he shoves over with AQ+ and AK+ after your raise to 600?

[taipan168]

What if he shoves over with AQ+ and AK+ after your raise to 600?

A winning multitabler wouldn't ever shove over with AQ or AK after a pot-committing 3-bet from another winning player (he's got enough hands on me to know). If I 3-bet he puts me on QQ+ and AQ and AK are toast against that range.

[Xenq]

Call, I reckon. Your stack can pay off almost 9 to 1 just set-farming and there should be enough undercard flops as well to make it profitable.

[kstarm]

Call, I reckon. Your stack can pay off almost 9 to 1 just set-farming and there should be enough undercard flops as well to make it profitable.

I don't think undercards are going to help us here.

I think based on your read, the blind level, and the fact that he did this from UTG that this is a fold.

I could possibly see an argument for meta-game as you have position and he knows your solid, but .....I probably still lay this down.

[GatorJH]

What is his cbet% as that is the bigger question. Your call range here is going to be pretty wide which makes me think he is going to cbet most flops. What is your plan if he cbets and you have an overpair to the board?

Tough spot.

[taipan168]

What is his cbet% as that is the bigger question. Your call range here is going to be pretty wide which makes me think he is going to cbet most flops.

Really? When he knows I am a solid regular and he raised from UTG? I put his range here at 88/99+ and AJ/AQ+

What is your plan if he cbets and you have an overpair to the board?

That's the tough thing about this hand, it can have really bad reverse implied odds on an undercard flop and if/when he bets an undercard flop we will have no idea whether it is a c-bet (with a missed AK/AQ/AJ) or a value bet (of which we beat 88/99-TT, tie with JJ and are pwned by QQ+).

[GatorJH]

I didn't mean wide as in ATC. but your calling range here should be, at least, wider than his opening range, especially if you include any metagame into your range.

As for post flop this may be one of those situations (since you see him quite frequently) where you need to make a non-standardish play here to setup future plays. If he knows that you are going to play straight up poker it makes his decisions very easy.

[TLR]

I would flat call, analyzing what will happen after the flop has a lot to do with
what is the preflop/postflop action of the blinds

[GatorJH]

Yea, I definitely think calling is the best action pre-flop but I also think the interesting part of this hand is going to be how we proceed postflop in various situations.

[drmcboy]

How about just moving in pre?

[mcatdog]

call, call with AK and QQ+ too

[givememyleg]

I wouldn't really have any regrets shoving over a cbet on an undercard flop.

[GatorJH]

How about just moving in pre?

If he knows us like we know him he would fold the bottom part of his range and only call with the top part that crushes us.

[drmcboy]

But that's 88-JJ and AQ+AK that he folds, vs just QQ-AA that he calls with.

So 75% of the time we win 225

25% we:

80 % lose 1250
20 % win 2600

If we play the hand 100 times (for some reason bigger nu,bers are easier for me):

75 (we get folds pre) *225 = +16,875

20 (times we lose AI) * -1250 = -25,000

5 (times we win AI) * 2600 = +13,000

Net is +4,875

Calling may be better, but I don't think we can fold pre. I didn't even put in AJ or KQ or JJ which would give us even more FE.

[Raoni_Poker]

Is either a call or a push. Calling here can lead to ugly spots:

1) If the flop is high you should be careful even when its checked to you. You're not deep, so...you can lose quite a chunck of your stack. If he bets, fold.
2) When the flop is low and he bets. Would you call or shove? He could do that with part of his raising range that missed the flop (AQ+), but if he has QQ+, you're busted anyway (pushing or calling). If we're shoving here, why dont we shove PF?

Depending on his raise range and his calling AI range, shoving can be an option.

[taipan168]

Thanks for the replies, it's been a good discussion.

Anyway, I did end up flat calling and my flop decision was made easy by the fact that the flop came KJx and he led (and obv called my shove) with AKo. KAPOW!

[bandrade]

A dream flop for you. GG.