To add-on or not?

[only_bridge]

Was playing a 3.30$ re-buy satellite to a 55$ tourney.
After the re-buy hr I had 25k, and avg was 8k.
20 players left, 8 tickets up for grab.
Starting chips was 1000, 3$ for 1000 re-buys and 3$ for 1500 add-on.
Now should I take the add-on or not?

[Penneywize]

Maybe the thinking has changed sometime in the past 4 years but I've always thought add-ons are a must, 99% of the time.

EDIT: Disregard what I just said. Re-read your post and saw that you're talkin about a satellite tourn with very few left. I'll let someone who knows more about sats advise you on this...

[GatorJH]

i wouldn't rebuy in that situation.

[KoRnholio]

Yeah in a satellite that close to the money, with your good stack, I don't think a rebuy is worth it either.

[Poker Orifice]

I don't think the rebuy is going to make any difference.

[only_bridge]

When played I did take the re-buy, but in hindsight I dont think it was a good option.
The cost is 3$ and the price is 55$. That means I need to increase my chances with at least 5.5% to have EV+ on re-buy, and I dont think 1.5k more would increase my chances that much.
This raises the question on when it is profitable, and when its not. Any good way to calculate this?

[Penneywize]

When played I did take the re-buy, but in hindsight I dont think it was a good option.
The cost is 3$ and the price is 55$. That means I need to increase my chances with at least 5.5% to have EV+ on re-buy, and I dont think 1.5k more would increase my chances that much.
This raises the question on when it is profitable, and when its not. Any good way to calculate this?

I'm not entirely sure what the formula would look like - but I would assume it would involve a comparison between your current % share of the tournament chips in relation to the average chip-stack share at the payout level, versus what your share would be with an add on in relation to the payout level avg % share.

Then with those results you run a comparison between the cost of the rebuy, the expected payout and your odds of making the money.

I could probably come up with something more solid if I spent some time on this but I'm just tossin up my thoughts as it is.

[tuuk2]

The rule of thumb for add-ons is 10% I believe. If the add-on is less than 10% of your stack, it's meaningless to add-on. In this case, it comes out to 4%.

Edit: Sorry that's 1500/25000 or 6%. Still not enough.

[Logan]

If the average chips at the time was 8k with 20 players that means that probably half of players (10) have that or less, with 26k and 8 places pay even if you sit out probably you make it, so, don't see the point to have 1.5k more.

You don't mention if at the end you make it or not, hope you do.

[only_bridge]

yes, I made it by good margin.