Help understanding a reg call

[revolvingiris]

I exposed the hands because I'm not questioning my push. I have been thinking this hand over for the past 2 days and I can't come up with a reasonable answer. Villain who called is a reg and like the title says I don't understand how they can call here.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 12 Tournament, 3000/6000 Blinds 600 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t51406)
BB (t60664)
Hero (UTG) (t68422)
Button (t89508)

Hero's M: 6.00

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, J
Hero bets t67822 (All-In), 2 folds, BB calls t54064 (All-In)

Flop: (t125528) A, J, Q (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t125528) 4 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t125528) 3 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t125528

Results:
BB had 3, 3 (three of a kind, threes).
Hero had A, J (two pair, Aces and Jacks).
Outcome: BB won t125528

Edit: I forgot to mention that this is the FT

[fjuanl]

the reg is a bad reg

[Extremophile]

He doesn't know he will be behind against an overpair, he will be flipping at best, this is a -EV call since he will get knocked out more 50% of the time while the other two guarantee the 3rd place every time, and doubling up will not double his chances for the win. Or, he is Doyle Brunson (remember his call against Patrik Antonius in WPT).

[revolvingiris]

Could it possibly be for meta game purposes? This specific villain is a pretty decent winner.

[dthorne04]

your push is lol standard and his call is lol bad

even if you were pushing any two...just lawl

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.693% 52.84% 00.85% 6650047464 107459442.00 { 33 }
Hand 1: 46.307% 45.45% 00.85% 5720468052 107459442.00 { random }

[Extremophile]

Could it possibly be for meta game purposes?

What is a meta game?

[KoRnholio]

It's probably not as bad as it looks. If he has some read that you won't open ship 11BBs in that spot with TT+, his 33 does well against your mostly overcards range.

Metagame is basically going beyond this single hand. By calling with 33 here, he may well be taking a bit the worst of it in this specific hand. BUT, he may discourage people from pushing as wide of a range into him in later hands. He may get some walks in his BB next time, or changes in his table image which will help him in later pots.

[fjuanl]

Him calling with 33 here doesn't change much about how you'll play against him in the future. Your range here should be pretty strong and if he ever makes any thin calls, he'll always be making a mistake

A more realistic justification would be if he knew this was a -EV call but figured a double up would lead to enough +EV spots in the future that he wouldn't otherwise have had with a short stack. A double up here would give him position on the 89k stack and the ability to run the table over. It actually might not be that bad if he thinks your shoving too wide, but I have no way of knowing for sure

[revolvingiris]

It's probably not as bad as it looks. If he has some read that you won't open ship 11BBs in that spot with TT+, his 33 does well against your mostly overcards range.

I balance my shove ranges pretty well I think. If I am playing from this position it is always a shove no matter what I have.

[chardrian]

I don't fault his call. I also am way behind the curve on ICM so I might be wrong here but.... Pot odds he just needs like 43% (54/125) and given chip stacks taking a risk here doesn't seem that bad to me. He is in 3rd place but is basically even with you and 4th place so he needs a double up, a double up increases his chances of winning/getting to heads-up dramatically, and losing in 4th rather than 3rd isn't that big of a difference. I think it is entirely defensible to call here when you think you are ahead of your opp's range. Even if we tighten hero's range to any pair, any broadway, any A, 33 still has 47% equity.

This is your opp seeing he has a pair, and being fine with taking a flip given how chip stacks line up.

[revolvingiris]

fold- .16
call/lose- .08 (I think this is correct. Used the 8% of the prize pool villain would win if lost this hand)
call/win- .22

.16-.08/.22-.08= 57% villains hand equity needed to be ahead of my range.

Char you bring up a really going point about villain having a much better shot at winning this if they take down this hand. Plus I would also have to think there is some added equity from knocking me out. Both the BB and BTN are regs who I've played with a lot.

I also don't think my range can be too wide here being the BTN has me covered (reg) and there is a short stack in the SB.

[dthorne04]

what's your range here?

[baudib]

I also think this is reasonable, calling 9 BBs to win 21 in a 4-handed situation.

[mcatdog]

Revolvingiris,

Villain should have at least 66 to even think about calling. Obviously his call is terrible, people play badly, etc. The only thing you can learn from this hand is that basically no one understands ICM and even regs commit ICM suicide in head-exploding fashion, therefore you should generally tighten up a lot at final tables unless you know for a fact that the other players understand ICM.

Everyone else who is defending villain's call,

Are you leveling?

[KoRnholio]

Everyone else who is defending villain's call,

Are you leveling?

Nope.

In a SNG where top 3 pay out, this would be a very bad bubble call. But in a large MTT where the payouts are much flatter overall (and 4th gets a reasonable amount compared to 3rd), I don't think it's a bad call. Especially given that it's 4 handed (that M of 6 isn't really many chips).

[fjuanl]

This is a "bad call" if you want to look at this hand in isolation. Its -$EV according to ICM even if he puts revolving on 100% of hands. But what if a double up gives the villain enough of a skill advantage that all the +$EV spots in future hands will make up for the initial "bad call"? Not sure if I agree with it, but some decent players have used this argument

[revolvingiris]

what's your range here?

Probably less then optimal and more on the tight-ish side. I try my hardest not to have specific ranges and more let the villains at the table tell me what I can shove. Based on this specific dynamic, probably something like this: 66+,A9s+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo

[chardrian]

I am not defending it - I just don't think it's horribad.