Stars $4,40 180-man, loloverbet on shrek-like flop

[Jack Sawyer]

crap, I haven't posted in the MTT forum forever. I'm trying to get back on the bike with these, so I've been playing a ton of these for the past two days.

I kind of get lost when there's a lot of chips at stake. I just arrived at the table, and villain has been sitting on his bigstack when i arrived.
We're itm but not on the ft yet, about 15 players IIRC left.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 4.4 Tournament, 300/600 Blinds 50 Ante (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Replayer from Poker Hands Replayer



UTG (t22876)
MP1 (t8266)
MP2 (t6098)
Jizzy (CO) (t11688)
Button (t18480)
SB (t11920)
BB (t65932)

Jizzy's M: 9.35

Preflop: Jizzy is CO with ,
3 folds, Jizzy bets t1800, 2 folds, BB calls t1200

Flop: (t4250) , , (2 players)
BB bets t10200, Hero (t0) ?

[revolvingiris]

Meh, I would probably just let it go. I don't think this is a huge hand too often but villain could also be protecting with a J.

[fjuanl]

Have to be 41% to breakeven. Probably best to assume BB is a fish defending a huge range and almost never doing this with straights and rarely 2 pair. Reads would be nice but I don't give 4/180 man players credit for much and probably call. Tough spot though thats for sure

Board: Td 9s Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.586% 40.60% 02.98% 64317 4722.50 { AhTh }
Hand 1: 56.414% 53.43% 02.98% 84638 4722.50 { QQ+, 88, AQs-ATs, A8s, KJs-KTs, K8s, Q9s+, J8s, T8s, 98s, AQo-ATo, A8o, KJo-KTo, K8o, Q9o+, J8o, T8o, 98o }

[drmcboy]

Yeah I'd have to call too but over bets always work on me

[Poker Orifice]

idk... I can't focus. Your avatar is too distracting!!

I let it go and curse "you f'n donk".

[Extremophile]

idk... I can't focus. Your avatar is too distracting!!

[Jack Sawyer]

Tnx for the replies guys. I folded but kept wondering how exploitable folding here would be.