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First Hour Flips

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  1. #1
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    Default First Hour Flips

    I understand this is a rather noob question but I ran into this situation earlier in the Daily 30K and I'm more or less asking this as a general question for discussion and not specifically to this hand.

    In the early blind levels what are the merits, if any, of taking flips.

    Is it worth it to gamble early to accumulate a stack or should you just wait until you have a clearer edge?


    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 11 Tournament, 30/60 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    MP3 (t5250)
    Hero (CO) (t4255)
    Button (t1720)
    SB (t2760)
    BB (t3715)
    UTG (t2950)
    UTG+1 (t6290)
    MP1 (t1835)
    MP2 (t3600)

    Hero's M: 47.28

    Preflop: Hero is CO with A, Q
    UTG calls t60, 4 folds, Hero bets t235, 1 fold, SB raises to t2760 (All-In)
  2. #2
    I'd just fold. This is AK way too often for a call to be +EV. If we had AKs I'd say go ahead and gamble.
    Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
  3. #3
    It depends on villains range and how loose they are. Just examples:

    Hand 0: 41.129% { AQs }
    Hand 1: 58.871% { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }

    This would be a fold being your pot odds are 47.6%. But if villain was say shoving here with like 10% of hands then:

    Hand 0: 53.340% { AQs }
    Hand 1: 46.660% { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }

    and it would be a clear call. Its just depending on your read of what villain stacks off with.

    To answer your question about doubling early. I always look for every spot I can to take risks early. Its just going to benefit you so much to have a stack early.
  4. #4
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    As a general rule, dont take the flips early in the tourney.
    The advantage of building a big stack early is not as big as the advantage of actually surviving.
  5. #5
    As revolving already pointed out, it takes a pretty spazzy villain for you to actually be a flip here. If I had AKo I'd snap call all day. Check and make sure this isnt one of those guys who just shoves every hand. If he's shoved pre before, Id call with AQs
  6. #6
  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy
    http://www.cardplayer.com/cardplayer-magazines/65576-18-22/articles/15093-to-flip-or-not-to-flip
    nice
  8. #8
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    Interesting article.
    Not all true, but still making an interesting point.
  9. #9
    The problem with this situation is that you don't know if it's actually a flip. As noted, you could be dominated by AK, and there are three pocket pairs that have you in deep trouble compared to only two if you're holding AK.

    In addition, I think it's questionable whether AKs is clearly worth a call whereas AKo presumably is not. That seems like a rather fine distinction since being suited is only worth a couple of percent better odds.
  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by only_bridge
    As a general rule, dont take the flips early in the tourney.
    The advantage of building a big stack early is not as big as the advantage of actually surviving.
    This is pretty much exactly the wrong mentality to take into an MTT. The advantage of surviving the early parts of an MTT is practically worthless if you're not growing your stack.
  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by baudib
    Quote Originally Posted by only_bridge
    As a general rule, dont take the flips early in the tourney.
    The advantage of building a big stack early is not as big as the advantage of actually surviving.
    This is pretty much exactly the wrong mentality to take into an MTT. The advantage of surviving the early parts of an MTT is practically worthless if you're not growing your stack.
    Damn it Doyle Brunson, you have fooled me on this one.

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