AQ bubble

[abysil]

Are we really supposed to fold here as SNGWIZ says? I played with ranges a bit, and for this to be a profitable push both BB and utg have to have ranges of 45%+ or something ridiculous. Raiser is 60/14 over 43 hands, BB is 25/23 also 43 hands.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 2.25 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) (t1950)
BB (t3450)
UTG (t6465)
Button (t1635)

Hero's M: 6.50

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, A
UTG bets t700, 1 fold, Hero ???

[TLR]

Has raiser been more aggro since he is the big stack ?
I think I push over

[taipan168]

Haven't run it in SNG Wiz, but I would have thought that UTG's range is more important than SB and BB's.

[abysil]

utg wasn't usually raising, but was frequently calling. When he did raise it was usually minraise, not 3.5x like he did here.

taipan, i was SB, and i thought utg's range matters more too, but in sngwiz if you put utg to 99% opening it is still a recommended fold until you relax BB's range as well.

[argash]

Raiser is 60/14 over 43 hands, BB is 25/23 also 43 hands.

Sorry to interrupt your thread with a n00b question. I'm just trying to figure out what this means.

[abysil]

Raiser is 60/14 over 43 hands, BB is 25/23 also 43 hands.

Sorry to interrupt your thread with a n00b question. I'm just trying to figure out what this means.

the number is vp$ip/pfr%, basically how many hands (as a percentage) he plays against how many hands he brings in for a raise preflop. The higher vp$ip, the looser he is; high pfr implies aggressive. Higher number of hands sampled gives more accurate data. Most people on ftr run tight aggressive, like 20/15 or so depending on the player.

[abysil]

So as it played, I shoved and villain flipped AK, which kicked me out bubble. Ah well.

[Hubson]

You push AQ in situation like that siuted or unsuited. Otherwise blinds eat you up and you will have to push with something worse. If you loose, well that's poker.

[taipan168]

You push AQ in situation like that siuted or unsuited. Otherwise blinds eat you up and you will have to push with something worse. If you loose, well that's poker.

Hi and welcome to the forums, it's good to have you here.

The thing about SNGs is that you cannot make generalisations like this, particularly on the bubble. There are situations where it is correct to fold AK to a shove, and this is kind of similar.

Anyway, I ran it in SNG Wiz with UTG raising 25% and calling with 15% (which he shouldn't - he should call with anything that he's raising because he's priced in to call) and BB calling with 88+, AQo+ and AJs+ and this was slightly less than breakeven. If UTG never folds to a shove it is pretty -EV.

The interesting thing was that I swapped stacks between Button and Hero (ie. making Hero the short stack) and this became a solid push with the ranges above, and only a slightly bad one if UTG never folds to a shove.

[Hubson]

Hi, thanks for welcome :)

I will not agree with you. In my opinion going all in that situation is my move. I also do it with AK and maybe even with AJ. But my strategy is up to my playing conditions. And I got only one. I always play to win and if so in situation like the one you described taking chances is the only way to achieve it.

[taipan168]

Hi, thanks for welcome

Great, hope that you stick around and post some hands!

I will not agree with you. In my opinion going all in that situation is my move. I also do it with AK and maybe even with AJ. But my strategy is up to my playing conditions. And I got only one. I always play to win and if so in situation like the one you described taking chances is the only way to achieve it.

You cannot make a generalisation like "play to win". This is not always the right strategy. You should play to maximise the amount of money that you are going to win in every situation. Sometimes this means playing for third, sometimes it means playing for first.

Take this classic example:
UTG 2000
Button 2500
SB 5000
BB (Hero) 4000

Blinds are 100/200, Hero has A K and SB shoves. SB has been shoving a LOT during the bubble, however this is a clear fold. Do you understand why?

[Hubson]

Hi. I see we have different points of view. Because for me it is not "generalisation". I never play for anything different than 1st place ( only in DONs I play only to survive - and ind DONs I will aplay all your advice and think is perfectly correct ). Second in your last example with AK - Hero is 2nd stack, and again for me it is not clear fold. In most cases it will be 75% fold and 25% call. It all depends on my observation of that player ( e.g. let's say a LOT mean for you that he shove up from 50% last 10 hands - and that's clear call. You will fold ? )

[taipan168]

Hi. I see we have different points of view. Because for me it is not "generalisation". I never play for anything different than 1st place ( only in DONs I play only to survive - and ind DONs I will aplay all your advice and think is perfectly correct ).

You need to apply a similar methodology in regular SNGs as you do in DONs. There is still a big jump in payout between 4th and 3rd and there are definitely times where you need to take this into account. The thing about tournaments (all tournaments) is that unlike cash games, chip value does not equal $ value and this ratio changes over time. This is a really important concept, if you don't understand it then you should definitely read a book like either Harrington on Hold'em or Kill Everyone, both of which explain it pretty well.

Second in your last example with AK - Hero is 2nd stack, and again for me it is not clear fold. In most cases it will be 75% fold and 25% call. It all depends on my observation of that player ( e.g. let's say a LOT mean for you that he shove up from 50% last 10 hands - and that's clear call. You will fold ? )

No it is not a clear call, in fact quite the opposite - it is a clear fold. Due to the ICM (Independent Chip Model - a way of converting chip counts to $ values) effect here, in the second example, it doesn't matter what the guy is shoving, whether it is 1% or 50% or 100%, calling here always loses you money in the long run.

I would fold 99.9% of the time in the AKo hand (and in the 0.1% I would only call against a fellow regular with whom I have thousands of hands for metagame benefits).

[Hubson]

Hi. I think you totally wrong in your last post ( Of course you think that I'm totally wrong but that's ok, everyone got his own style of playing ). I red Harrington and many other books. "Chip value does not equal $ value and this ratio changes over time" - sure but that apply mainly in big multitable tournaments and than there are big jumps in payment. In standard SNGs prize sistribution is 50/30/20 and there is no 4th place. So you never play in DONs same as in SNGs.

[taipan168]

Hi. I think you totally wrong in your last post ( Of course you think that I'm totally wrong but that's ok, everyone got his own style of playing ). I red Harrington and many other books. "Chip value does not equal $ value and this ratio changes over time" - sure but that apply mainly in big multitable tournaments and than there are big jumps in payment. In standard SNGs prize sistribution is 50/30/20 and there is no 4th place. So you never play in DONs same as in SNGs.

I never said that you play DONs the same as SNGs, but you need to apply similar concepts (ie. you need to think about how the value of chips changes over time in both formats). There is a big jump from 4th place (which pays 0%) to 3rd place (which pays 20%). In fact, this jump is bigger than the jump from 3rd to 2nd place, which is why special considerations apply on the bubble. OK, maybe not as severe as in a DON, but important enough to mean that the AKo hand I listed above is a fold.

[Lance]

Everytime i love your explanations Tai.
Nevertheless, I think in Harrington's book is not explained well (in deep) this important mathematical concept, but in the book "Kill everyone" there is half of this book about that. He should definitely read it.

[Kijjo]

Take Tai's example to the absurd, what if UTG has 10 chips? You KNOW that if you just wait another hand or two he's gone, you're GUARANTEED 20% by folding your AK, still call bud? Do you think you're a stronger player than your opponents? If not, then go ahead and shove it. I believe I'm a stronger player than nearly everyone at the level I play at (I've dropped way down in level for my own reasons). I know that sometimes with this AQ or AK situation I'll be flipping a coin for a dominating chiplead (good chance of 50% of the prize pool) or bust. Why would I take that option when if I still have plenty of room to play, many many better opportunities that will present me with a much higher % chance to win?

Anyone who has full tilt software who hasn't done this, it's worth the hour or two it'll take. Go to My promotions in the chashier window, pick fulltilt academy and click on lessons. Click on SNG Lessons. There's only a few of them, but this concept among others are discussed pretty well. They're not difficult to understand. They will waste some of your time with mundane basic stuff you already know, but if they teach you one thing that you didn't know before, it will only help that ROI.

[Kijjo]

PS - to see the stuff at fulltilt academy, you do actually have to have earned some full tilt pts on their site to have access, forgot about that.

[cag8f]

This post displays the classic paradox with this forum: it goes against the best interest of winning players to rectify the incorrect play of other players. That said, one can make the argument that the number of players actually aided by this forum is so small that it won't affect the winning players' profit (although it's impossible to prove/disprove that). Still, I have no problem referring someone to a proper method, but I don't want to bend over backwards if he/she doesn't want to listen.

Hubson, I'm not saying you're a bad player, but proper ICM strategy is a proven moneymaker (my stats certainly jumped when I applied it, and I'm fairly certain most if not all of the top SNG winners apply it regularly). If you don't want to use it, that's your prerogative, and I'm sure players *can* win without knowingly applying it (by playing on "feel" alone). However those players have basically internalized the ICM calculations. By that I mean that the player will arrive at the same conclusion ICM analysis returns, not by crunching percentages and probabilities, but just by experience (e.g. "In my vast experience a player like this normally has this hand and a raise/fold/call will make me money in the long run."). If a player playing on feel alone is not arriving at the same decisions as an ICM analysis would yield, then that player is not making as much money as he can--that's literally what ICM calculations illustrate.

OP, personally, I've gotten in trouble (and ICM has validated it) too many times with AQ on the bubble. In most cases, if I'm not opening the pot, I want nothing to do with it. Also, do you think "playing to win" and "playing to maximize profit" are the same thing? I don't.

Edited for accuracy

[Kijjo]

do you think "playing to win" and "playing to maximize profit" are the same thing? I don't.

Valid point. If a person sits down and says "I'm playing for #1, screw everything else and screw making money," that's their choice. I guess we take it for granted that the people on this site tend to not have that view, but some people care more about the joy of the win than their account balance. I know I have friends at work that think that way.
If that is the case though, they'd be much better served playing a "winner take all" format, so that their style and choices and goals would all coincide in a game where the payout format would allow them to make more money than playing that way in a traditional SNG.