Don't Donk Min-Raise

[RockyMoose]

On of the regulars here (can't remember who) mentioned that one of the notes he records on people is: "DDMR", which stands for "Don't Donk Min-Raise". I love this expression, and use it now in my notes.

Min-raising is bad. This is why:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 11 Tournament, 60/120 Blinds (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t2335)
SB (t1045)
Hero (BB) (t1970)
UTG (t6980)
MP (t1170)

Hero's M: 10.94

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, 5
1 fold, MP calls t120, Button calls t120, SB calls t60, Hero checks

Flop: (t480) 7, 6, A (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP checks, Button bets t120, SB raises to t240, Hero calls t240, 1 fold, Button calls t120

Turn: (t1200) 9 (3 players)



In any case, a question: Did I play the flop ok?

I don't often find myself in spots like this. I wasn't quite getting express odds to call, since I didn't know if I would be able to also see the river cheap or not, but implied odds with 8 outs to a well-disguised monster made me call, despite my M of 10. I don't think I had any fold equity, so shoving on a draw was not in my nature. I was pretty sure the player behind me would also just call. If I had missed, the river would have priced me to call another donk bet, and my M was getting low.

[Kijjo]

If you call and have to lay it down I think you're left with 1600? I'm fine with that, beside like you said, when you do hit, it's disguised, so you're getting paid large.

[taipan168]

OK, we can work this out. You have 8 clean outs on the turn, so you're about 16% or a bit more than 5 to 1 against to hit. When it gets to you there's 840 in the pot (960 if you assume Button flat calls as well) and it's 240 to you to call, so you're getting about 3.5 to 4 to 1 express odds on the call (you're getting better than 7:1 when you're about 5.25:1 against to hit your straight).

SB has 745 behind, and given the action you have to assume that he will stack off if you hit your straight, so you can add that to the chips you can win to give you correct implied odds against SB, at least on the face of it.

HOWEVER, other issues you need to consider:
- On the flop, you don't close the action, so if Button shoves over you have to fold.
- There's also reverse implied odds for you if one of them has T8 and was chasing a gutshot
- I have not taken into account the ICM effect, so in fact you do need better than 5.25 to 1 to make the call (unlike a cash game)
- There's always the possibility that one of them has a set or two pair and therefore has between 4 and 10 outs to redraw on the river.

For the four reasons above, I would fold on the flop.

[Kijjo]

this post is a perfect example of why taipan is our forum moderator. he takes the time to break it down and scientifically/mathmatically evaluate the situation for you, instead of giving you an off-the-cuff/from your gut answer.
good post tai