TT on the bubble

[Lance]

SB 36/20/2
BB 14/10/1.5

It seems like an easy push, right ? What about calling this and wait for the action of the shortstack, does it have any sense ?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 16 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 25 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t490)
SB (t6690)
BB (t3555)
Hero (UTG) (t2765)

Hero's M: 3.95

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10, 10
Hero ?

[rong]

Hell no!

I fold instantly due to short stack.

[taipan168]

Hmm, I ran this in Wiz and it said this was only a fold if the short stack calls tight (like 8%) and the big stack in the SB calls very wide (like 30% or more).

If you haven't seen the blinds squeeze before, I would actually call, hope that the short stack goes AI and try to co-operate to knock him/her out.

[mz102489]

def. dont push

[TLR]

Interesting spot

I think that I would push over here, the 700 in the middle are important to your stack, and even if you are called you are most likely around 50% favorite to win vs their ranges

[Extremophile]

If you call, SB shoves with ATC since, you never know he does it with 30% or more.

[baudib]

tough spot where no option is really palatable...I think I lean toward a min-raise, but this thread makes me wanna give up SnGs forever.

[Lance]

well, if we call or min-raise this and short stack will fold, SB should push ATC.

though it seems that call is the best option here

[Extremophile]

If you haven't seen the blinds squeeze before, I would actually call, hope that the short stack goes AI and try to co-operate to knock him/her out.

If you were the SB, would you cooperate with others in order to eliminate the short stack or would you try to keep him alive and short?

[taipan168]

If you haven't seen the blinds squeeze before, I would actually call, hope that the short stack goes AI and try to co-operate to knock him/her out.

If you were the SB, would you cooperate with others in order to eliminate the short stack or would you try to keep him alive and short?

If I was the SB and I had something half decent I would shove it and take the dead chips for sure. That being the case, on reflection I think that shoving is the best option here rather than calling. SB might play 30% of hands but will he call a shove with 30%?

[Extremophile]

If you haven't seen the blinds squeeze before, I would actually call, hope that the short stack goes AI and try to co-operate to knock him/her out.

If you were the SB, would you cooperate with others in order to eliminate the short stack or would you try to keep him alive and short?

If I was the SB and I had something half decent I would shove it and take the dead chips for sure. That being the case, on reflection I think that shoving is the best option here rather than calling. SB might play 30% of hands but will he call a shove with 30%?

It depends on his hand and the range SB puts Hero on.

- If you shove and SB folds he will have 6490 chips and 48.1% of the prize pool
- If he calls and wins he will have 9930 chips and 73.6 % of the prize pool
- If he calls and loses he will have 3750 chips and 27.8 % of the prize pool.

Therefore he needs to be (48.1-27.8)/(73.6-27.8)= 44% favorite to win against hero's range to make this a good call.

If SB estimates hero's shoving range like { TT+, AQs+, AKo }, his calling range must be something like:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.749% 40.49% 03.26% 2100690876 169133856.00 { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AKo }
Hand 1: 56.251% 52.99% 03.26% 2749322532 169133856.00 { TT+, AQs+, AKo }

As a result,

- Calling for 400t is not good for hero if SB knows/calculates he can shove 30-35% wide to make it a -EV call for you.

- Shoving is the best option unless SB or BB have been calling loose.

[baudib]

now that i've had 4 hours of sleep or so i realize that minraising is probably the worst possible thing to do.

[Kijjo]

So you guys are really advocating shoving TT on the bubble when the shortie is going to get blinded allin in 2 hands? While I shove alot on the bubble with blinds this high, I think I call or fold this one due to shortie being so close. I can wait an orbit and start shoving like a madman when he's either out or doubled up. I'm not saying that's correct thinking, but I'm saying that's what my gut would be telling me to do.

[taipan168]

So you guys are really advocating shoving TT on the bubble when the shortie is going to get blinded allin in 2 hands? While I shove alot on the bubble with blinds this high, I think I call or fold this one due to shortie being so close. I can wait an orbit and start shoving like a madman when he's either out or doubled up. I'm not saying that's correct thinking, but I'm saying that's what my gut would be telling me to do.

Calling was my initial reaction, but that leaves us very exposed to the big stack squeezing us by shoving in which case we have to fold. That being the case, I'd rather fold this rather than call or minraise here.

I ran this in Wiz and SB has to call your shove with at least 30% of hands to make it -EV. 30% is pretty wide when SB should know that you realise how short the short stack is (ie. your shoving range is going to be pretty tight indeed).

[rong]

This is one of the situations where I think folding is better at lower buy ins and shoving at higher buy ins. Because you are relying on SB having a good understanding of ICM to fold.

[Kijjo]

trudat dan, agreed