AA on the worst board

[lNormajean]

He got his stack from set vs top 2 which he fast played oop on a wet board. He didnt have set odds to call pre so I doubt he knows too much about what hes doing. No reads other than that.

How badly did I play flop, turn and whats ur plan on the river?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 5.5 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t1475)
Hero (MP1) (t1475)
MP2 (t1705)
CO (t1225)
Button (t1395)
SB (t3375)
BB (t2850)

Hero's M: 32.78

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, A
1 fold, Hero bets t90, 1 fold, CO calls t90, 1 fold, SB calls t75, 1 fold

Flop: (t300) K, 8, 10 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (t300) K (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

River: (t300) 3 (3 players)
SB bets t150, ???

[taipan168]

I'd make it 120 to go preflop rather than 90.

He didnt have set odds to call pre

Not sure why you think this. He needs to call 75 to win 1500+ and he's 7.5 to 1 against to hit a set on the river.

As played, I definitely bet the flop. Whilst that is not a great flop for you, there are still hands that you beat that will call (flush draws, Kx). If your flop bet gets called I would then slow down on the turn. As played, I don't think I would bet the turn either (but I can see the case for doing so) but you have to call the river bet, it isn't a huge dent in your stack and you're getting 3:1 with an overpair. If the river was another spade I could see a case for folding however.

[GatorJH]

Tai, I think he was talking about set odds on the prior hand, not this one.

As for this hand I agree with Tai on betting the flop. As played I am calling here because I think you will find a Tx hand as often as you find a Kx or flush type hand.

[lNormajean]

yeah, set odds was from the hand how he got his stack it was 5x from utg and he called from sb.

if you were to bet the flop how much would you bet?

the reason i didnt bet was cos with 2 others in the pot im alot more likely of geting called and there are very few turns i like and i already have showdown value with my overpair.

[tugger]

Pockets to a x5 raise... I've found that to be profitable. You need to be averaging around 45bb profit every time you hit your set to break even, and I reckon I average around a dollar in 1/2c rooms from the raised pots when I flop a set. The times you're up against the overpairs makes up for the times he folds AK to your c/raise. Of course, occasionally you lose a big pot with the underset, but that's rare (6 times in 2 hours for one poor sucker at my table last night).

[GatorJH]

With two players I make it 280-300 and would shut down if I meet any resistance. The reason you bet here is that this is a horrible board for your hand so you are more than happy to take it down on the flop and it would make for an easier decision to lay down AA based on what happens when you lead out.

[lNormajean]

hmm kk thanks

[nuklearwintr]

I would just cbet like 175 here on the flop, I think you will find out quickly if you are beat. There's so many bad turns and rivers that let you get away from the hand easily. Additionally, a 175 flop bet will quickly fold out hands that missed and get calls from weaker hands and draws.

As played, call the river.

[Roller]

I bet 120 or 150 PreFlop.
Then c-bet the Flop and fold to aggression at this point.

[fdnypoker]

I don't mind the 90 pre flop raise. Disguises your hand. However I bet this flop almost 100% of the time. Probably 175 is about right. After SB checks the turn (flush draw?) I bet out and represent the K. You raised pre flop and a K is certainly in your range. The check here is just waiting for the 4th spade. As played I call the river.

[baudib]

Pockets to a x5 raise... I've found that to be profitable. You need to be averaging around 45bb profit every time you hit your set to break even, and I reckon I average around a dollar in 1/2c rooms from the raised pots when I flop a set. The times you're up against the overpairs makes up for the times he folds AK to your c/raise. Of course, occasionally you lose a big pot with the underset, but that's rare (6 times in 2 hours for one poor sucker at my table last night).

you need more than 45 BBs to break even.

[farmredhead]

I agree I would bet 175 preflop then if there is agression after flop I would fold. if no agression then I would bet agressive, 3x the pot, to push others out.

[Kijjo]

Another reason you bet out this flop that's no one's actually stated is that even though you think this is a horrible flop for you, think about how many hands your opponents have where they look at this and go "oh crap". Pretty much the only way I'm continuing against you here if you put in a convincing flop bet, is if I have flopped a flush, a pair + a good spade draw (A, Q or J in this case), or a good flush draw + straight draw. From my point of view, I'd be thinking "what's the point of losing a big pot on a goofy board when we're still in the 2nd level of blinds?"

[tugger]

Pockets to a x5 raise... I've found that to be profitable. You need to be averaging around 45bb profit every time you hit your set to break even, and I reckon I average around a dollar in 1/2c rooms from the raised pots when I flop a set. The times you're up against the overpairs makes up for the times he folds AK to your c/raise. Of course, occasionally you lose a big pot with the underset, but that's rare (6 times in 2 hours for one poor sucker at my table last night).

you need more than 45 BBs to break even.

Really? Let's explore...

Chances of flopping set with pp is around one in nine. So eight times we fold on the flop, losing 40 big blinds. One time we flop set, so to break even we need to win back the 40 big blinds we lost folding the flop, and the five we called here.

Only thing I haven't taken into account, and I know this is where I went wrong, is the times our set still loses. Assuming he has overpair that he's not folding, he has a one in five chance of hitting set himself by the river. So when we hit our set, it holds up around 80% of the time. So we need to win more blinds to take this hit when it holds up, 45 will not be enough. Maybe we need to add another 20% to that, yes? 56-57 bb's needed to justify a x5 raise?

[baudib]

you don't stack the other guy every time you hit.

[mcatdog]

Another reason you bet out this flop that's no one's actually stated is that even though you think this is a horrible flop for you, think about how many hands your opponents have where they look at this and go "oh crap". Pretty much the only way I'm continuing against you here if you put in a convincing flop bet, is if I have flopped a flush, a pair + a good spade draw (A, Q or J in this case), or a good flush draw + straight draw. From my point of view, I'd be thinking "what's the point of losing a big pot on a goofy board when we're still in the 2nd level of blinds?"

So are you bluffing when you bet the flop?

[Kijjo]

I guess it'd be a cop-out to say semi-bluff right?
Well considering the concept that if I were value betting I would want calls (in general) and bluffing I would rather take the pot now, I think I'd have to say yes this would be a bluff. In general I would expect reasonable players to only continue with a hand that has lots of outs to beat my overpair (which unfortunately is very unlikely to improve).
Agree or disagree mcatdog?

[taipan168]

The three reasons to bet are to bluff, for value and to protect your hand against draws. To me, the reasons to bet this flop are for value (because worse hands will call) and to protect (to ensure that draws are paying the price to chase). Bluffing isn't one of the reasons to bet here. If we had 72o and decided to (foolishly) bet this board then that would be a true bluff bet.