Daily 80K Gross River Decision

[OP]

2nd hand at the table

Only read is that he didn't play the last hand

Comments on leading, sizing, and river action?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 55 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 (t3705)
MP1 (t2225)
MP2 (t5890)
MP3 (t4065)
CO (t2775)
Button (t7295)
SB (t5700)
Hero (BB) (t9095)
UTG (t2000)

Hero's M: 40.42

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4, Q
3 folds, MP2 calls t150, MP3 calls t150, 2 folds, SB calls t75, Hero checks

Flop: (t600) 7, 2, Q (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t325, 2 folds, SB calls t325

Turn: (t1250) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t925, SB raises to t1850, Hero calls t925

River: (t4950) 3 (2 players)
SB bets t3375 (All-In)

[mz102489]

id put him on a high pp..although the reraise on the turn scares me. idk, ugly indeed. id call.

[drmcboy]

I've seen people do such crazy stuff in this tourney I would call although I totally get where you're coming from and I think it's pretty close. It's awesome you cant even beat Q2/ Q3.

[OP]

FWIW he had a chinese baby in his avatar and river was insta, snap, AH-LA-LA-LA-LA shove.

[Extremophile]

a) If he is doing this with A7, we are not getting the right price:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.000% 22.22% 02.78% 12 1.50 { Qh4c }
Hand 1: 75.000% 72.22% 02.78% 39 1.50 { 77, 22, A7s, Q2s+, A7o, Q2o+ }

b) If his range includes A7 and 88 we are getting the right price:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.500% 30.00% 02.50% 18 1.50 { Qh4c }
Hand 1: 67.500% 65.00% 02.50% 39 1.50 { 88-77, 22, A7s, Q2s+, A7o, Q2o+ }

c) If his range doesn't have A7 or 88:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 03.571% 00.00% 03.57% 0 1.50 { Qh4c }
Hand 1: 96.429% 92.86% 03.57% 39 1.50 { 77, 22, Q2s+, Q2o+ }


Considering the % of donks doing a) or b) is less than % 50, this is a fold.

[baudib]

his range is wider than that...you need to account for the non-zero chance of a bluff. you'll see some frakked up hands like 72 or two overcards with clubs.

[Renton]

can you not fold turn?

[OP]

Funny you ask, it did actually cross my mind but b/f here seemed kinda gay at the time getting >4:1 to peel the river

[sinister1]

I like checking this flop just because you will not frequently be called by worse and do not really need to protect your hand on this board texture. If you lead you often end up value-towning yourself because limping ranges tend to include lots of Qx that beats you. I certainly do not think you lose much, if any, value by checking the flop, but can certainly get in trouble if you lead.

If you check the flop you pot control and can still get value by:

a) the btn bluffing
b) the btn checking and catching T, J or draw on turn and calling your turn/river bets
c) the sb leading turn with mp if it was checked around (or if they have tp you only call 2 bets and lose a bunch less).

I would check the flop intending to call a bet from btn, reeval turn. Call turn and call river bets vs sb if that sequence played out).

As for how the hand actually played out it is super gross and I do not really like folding, but his line screams monster. I guess he could be bluffing w/7cXc but dang, I think he has Qx here too often to call without reads.

[baudib]

I usually check the flop as well.

[fjuanl]

I pretty much never bet the flop. Maybe if I knew someone was a big enough station to call down with A7. I just think theres more value in a check bet bet line

[caddie444]

I rarely bet the flop in this spot FWIW

As played, looking at this hand, and villains line leading into the turn, I would put his range at hands we crush and hands that crush us, so this is a WA/WB situation..

We're not really afraid of giving a free card here on the turn if we're ahead, and I think we can gain a lot of information by what he does on the river. (ie- if he checks we can value bet large and make it look like spew, or if he bets we can just call AND MAKE NOTES)

So basically I'm throwing out there a turn check possibilty for deception, pot/control, hating life in these spots, yada yada

The only real obvious downside to it is that we're losing value from donks who we have dominated.

The thing about villains line is that it's pretty damn obvious we have a weak Q and he doesn't seem to care at all.

Renton brings up a good point too. I think we make our decision to fold/shove on the turn. Calling a min raise then folding to a shove is pretty bad IMO

As played I think I time down and fold...

[Extremophile]

his range is wider than that...you need to account for the non-zero chance of a bluff. you'll see some frakked up hands like 72 or two overcards with clubs.

Whose range do you think is wider? It is very unlikely that someone is bluffing is in a multiway limped pot. Since there is no read on the villian, we need to take into account the ranges of both a TAGG and a LAGG. The equity of a TAGG ( case c) ) will be dominating, making the range of a LAGG less important.

[baudib]

I just think your range is way too narrow...for instance, you think he can have 88 but don't include 99? A7 is possible but not K7? There's at least enough of a chance of a total bluff/retardo hand that I can't ever imagine being down 96-4 against the range of an unknown...check the "Dumbest things I've seen today" thread in ToP and notice how the consensus is that dumb tourney moves are lolstandard.

that said, i'm totally fine with a fold on the turn.

[Extremophile]

I started playing tourneys with $5 buyin and the number of donks seemed to have decreased moving from $2 to $5. I thought there would be even less number of donks in $55 tourneys.

You are right I should have added K7 in that range. If someone is doing this with A7, he obviously does it with K7, too. I didn't have 99 in that range because I thought that is enough of a hand to raise pre. I'd probably raise it pre with 99, depending on the stats of the limpers.

[baudib]

you'd be surprised

[fjuanl]

The Daily 80 has satellites and a lot of the microstakes fish take shots and play it

[farmredhead]

I would take the chance to call, because I have the feeling he is bluffing. He would have to have a pocket pair and he didn't seem to bet that way. I believe there are only six hands that can beat what hero has.

[chardrian]

minraises on flops often include air in the range; minraises on turns rarely do - they are usually the nuts. If you are going to make a fold here it should be on the turn. As played you can't fold now.

[DrStrangeShove]

You'd think he would throw out the value bet with a house. My best guess is your trips are out kicked.