AJ top two facing river decision 50NL

[Sup3rM4N]

villain is 23/19/5.8 over 622 hands, regular on a few of my tables. Pretty active player. The only time we tangled was BvB in another table where I raised PFR he flatted, board came Q66 two soots and he raised my cbet and i folded. Thats pretty much the only history. Im a nittagg n i dont see why he would think other wise.

What about turn? Should I have B/F?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($86.70)
BB ($93.45)
UTG ($69.50)
MP ($50)
Hero (Button) ($63.15)

Preflop: Hero is Button with ,
UTG calls $0.50, MP bets $2, Hero calls $2, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.75) , , (3 players)
UTG checks, MP bets $4, Hero raises to $11, 1 fold, MP calls $7

Turn: ($28.75) (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

River: ($28.75) (2 players)
MP bets $19

[JL]

What is your reasoning behind your flop raise?

[ATOTHEC101]

Yeah not a fan of your flop raise.

[Marshall28]

I don't think the flop raise is very good, but if you're going to check back this turn you should definitely call this river--If you fold this river then it makes no sense and you might as well have just bet/folded the turn.

[Dragon Slayer]

Not to be a broken record. But I would think that raising the flop only gets him to fold his worse hands and call with sets/FDs. I think his range becomes much wider with just a call. As the hand went down I think B/F Turn would be good. I guess folding river if he calls turn and leads. I dont see what we would beat by that point.

[mcatdog]

Were you trying to bluff him off of AQ and AK when you raised the flop so now he always has a flush or a set? I guess you should fold the river then.

[Ravageur]

fold river, and after you raise flop (which i would not have and if you are going to raise, raise enough so at least you're not giving him great odds with any draw), bet the turn - 15ish so you can bet/fold and also get value from AK/AQ with Ks or something.

[Sup3rM4N]

Ahhh some very good points here.

I raised the flop bcuz i was expecting him to cbet there with almost his entire range and wanted to fold out most of his hands including any FD. Also I didn't want UTG+1 to call with a draw after i call the bet. Leakage reasoning for raising?

What would have been a better play? Call, re-evalute on turn? what kind of turn card would we call a 2nd barrel (if we call one at all) with?

[nutsinho]

Ahhh some very good points here.

I raised the flop bcuz i was expecting him to cbet there with almost his entire range and wanted to fold out most of his hands including any FD. Also I didn't want UTG+1 to call with a draw after i call the bet. Leakage reasoning for raising?

What would have been a better play? Call, re-evalute on turn? what kind of turn card would we call a 2nd barrel (if we call one at all) with?

so you WERE bluffing on the flop.. that is interesting

fold preflop call flop.....

[meeloche]

Yeah I'd rather not bluff with bluff catchers. Like you said you beat a ton of his range on the flop. So you should call to keep all those hands in the pot so that they can continue betting.

[XTR1000]

fold preflop

Care to share your thoughts on this? Im calling AJ almost 100% vs described villian in the absence of habitual squeezer. I figure to be ahead of his range and having position I feel like hes gonna be playing very straightforward.

[ATOTHEC101]

Folding aj pre in this spot is not an option in my mind. Villains a reg isoing a presumed weaker player, thus is range isn't all that strong, you have aj, a hand ahead of his isoing range plus you'll be in position against the reg and likely the fish if he limp calls.

[griffey24]

I think raising this flop can be good sometimes, with proper reads dynamic. I'd prefer it a lot more with AQ and obv with AK if we flatted that pre.

I don't think everyone can say they hate the flop raise without more reads on villain. Some people regs will never fold any A here thinking you rep so narrow and prob have a FD. Others will think you're FoS and re-bluff you here.

With proper reads I don't mind it to merge your value raising range here, but otherwise obv call is standard.

As played, meh snapping river off.

[jyms]

I don't think everyone can say they hate the flop raise without more reads on villain.

This was something that I was going to point out. You need to spend a little more time getting reads on regs. You have 622 hands played vs this reg and have a read of 1 hand you played BvB. I suggest playing less tables and start taking some notes. On a site like Stars, if you can't datamine and your not buying HH's, then stop relying on hud stats and start taking notes. He's played enough hands at showdown for you to get some notes.

FWIW, I also fold AJo pre vs regs opening UTG and MP if I don't have a note on how they play TP postflop. AJs I flat, and no way I balloon a pot on the flop without more history with TPGK

[bode]

guys its 5 handed so we are calling a CO raise OTB, which is totally standard here. Blah blah, call flop, and i call river as played because villain can be vbetting worse with the line you took.

[jyms]

I don't think we can care if it's 5 handed. We have huge reverse implied situation here playing a hand that will rarely make more than TP at best. Are we comfortable playing 3 streets when either an A or J hits the flop and somebody isn't going away. What do we expect to get from this hand in a best case scenario?

I'd rather squeeze it if I am going to play it.

[nutsinho]

lol at no one rethinking calling with AJo here when the loosest player in the thread says to fold. calling is easily the worst option with this hand when u lack initiative and implied odds in a multiway pot where you have position but bad relative position.

[Genitruc]

raising flop is good against aggros who will level themselves into thinking your range is polarized and call down w 88 on non-spade boards...

[jyms]

Wow nuts, I missed your first post in this thread. Surprised that didn't /thread as it is. Funnily, I also agreed with the right guy for a change.

[Micro2Macro]

lol at no one rethinking calling with AJo here when the loosest player in the thread says to fold. calling is easily the worst option with this hand when u lack initiative and implied odds in a multiway pot where you have position but bad relative position.

and let's not forget the chances of being squeezed folks.

now how about 3 betting preflop as a bluff?

this would of course assume we have a tight enough image and the right opponent isolating who will fold often enough or just call and c/f a ton of flops, and in the case that we don't have this weak of an opponent to pick on, we revert to folding. what are your thoughts on this?

[bode]

hmm, i just dont see how calling w/ AJo OTB vs a CO iso raiser isn't going to be right. I can see 3betting, but folding preflop here just seems so bad. I guess i'm not seeing something, but CO's stats are mine to the T and i'm iso'ing way wider than AJo here.

[griffey24]

hmm, i just dont see how calling w/ AJo OTB vs a CO iso raiser isn't going to be right. I can see 3betting, but folding preflop here just seems so bad. I guess i'm not seeing something, but CO's stats are mine to the T and i'm iso'ing way wider than AJo here.

Yah I'm in this camp as well. I can see folding AJo here if a 19/16 tagg iso's but not vs an aggro 23/19. I'd agree that 3betting might be better, but I can't see how calling is -EV unless you are pretty bad postflop.

[Genitruc]

we can also bluffshove riv

[griffey24]

we can also bluffshove riv

nooo way.. he's got spades here or a worse hand than us. No benefit for shoving here over just calling... its not like he has anything better that will fold.

[Genitruc]

if we re a nittag and he s got a low flush and he s decent he can def fold it without much thought

[d0zer]

if we re a nittag and he s got a low flush and he s decent he can def fold it without much thought

That seems really overly optimistic to think villain is ever folding a flush of any kind here especially after we check behind the turn.

[Genitruc]

well let s just say that if you re villain in this hand, hero is a nittag, and you get shoved over with a low flush, i d bet a zillion dollars calling is a losing play vs most "nittags" over a decent sample

[meeloche]

For sure but I don't know if ppl at this level will make the right fold here. They'll just go damm this must be a sick cooler and click call.

[Genitruc]

just for fun, if somone posted this hand from villain's perspective in this forum and we had say that we decided not to flip with on the flop, I m pretty sure that the huge majority of replies to the hand would say "fold since this nittag has the nuts"

[meeloche]

but he'd be posting it cause he clicked call....

(i'm mostly joking btw in case its not obvious)

[ATOTHEC101]

Yeah people won't fold a flush here even if they should, so even if a shove is good in theory it's definitely not in practice.

[grindinginnj]

as played I would call river. I would have called flop too.