Worst bubble hand ever

[Raoni_Poker]

Hi all,

This hand is from Absolute Poker (1,20 SnGs). The decision to semi-bluff here was terrible. I thought my opponent could be semi-bluffing with a lower flush draw...so I pushed.
How would you play this hand? Calling is an option? Folding is better? Pushing PF? I checked PF to hit a flop, but I should definitely push here, right?
Anyways, if I was afraid of the risk of shoving PF, I made a move much more risky on the flop...nonsense.

No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 150/300 Blinds (4 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t4385)
Hero (BB) (t3338)
UTG (t2430)
Button (t3347)

Hero's M: 7.42

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A
1 fold, Button calls t300, SB calls t150, Hero checks

Flop: (t900) Q, 2, 7 (3 players)
SB bets t900, Hero raises t3038 (All-In), 1 fold, SB calls t2138

Turn: (t6976) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t6976) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t6976

[taipan168]

Definitely, positively, absolutely push this hand preflop and be done with it.

As played, shoving is the only move, with two overs and the nut flush draw you have 15 outs to improve, you also have a little bit of fold equity here and there's even the possibility that even if you do get called you don't need to improve. Flat calling is terrible, I'd rather fold than flat call - but with the equity (both card and fold) that you have here I think shoving is by far the best option.

If you have Pokerstove, put some likely ranges for opp and take a look at the amount of equity you have against his hand.

[bjsaust]

Not shoving this preflop is akin to a criminal act.

[acoss3006]

This might be a major leak for me so would appreciate some further discussion.

Why is it an insta-shove pre-flop? Wouldnt a raise achieve the same outcome without putting our tourney on the line? Also, we have a hand that plays well post-flop if called. Couldnt we make more extracting post-flop?

Agree its a shove post-flop. Even if we are conservative and assume the As and Ks are partial outs (say 3 in total), that gives us 12 outs and ~ 50% equity, yes?

[taipan168]

Why is it an insta-shove pre-flop? Wouldnt a raise achieve the same outcome without putting our tourney on the line? Also, we have a hand that plays well post-flop if called. Couldnt we make more extracting post-flop?

It's an insta-shove preflop for a few reasons:
- There are 900 chips in the pot preflop which is 27% of our stack. Any time the chips in the pot preflop are 15%+ of our stack, consider shoving.
- Considering the stack sizes, we have really good fold equity so we have a great chance of taking those 900 chips without a fight.
- If we raise (say to 1000) and somebody calls, we only hit the flop 32% of the time, and then we'll have like 30% of our stack in the pot so check/folding would be terrible.

Agree its a shove post-flop. Even if we are conservative and assume the As and Ks are partial outs (say 3 in total), that gives us 12 outs and ~ 50% equity, yes?

That's right, but I'd say the As and Ks are more than half-outs in this case, I'd give them at least 5 outs even if they're not all clean.

[acoss3006]

Thanks fellow Aussie.

I was originally thinking that the chance of winning 900 chips was outweighed by the chance of losing 3000. So the fold equity would need to be quite high to make up for all the times we lose our stack . After thinking more about it and fiddling with a spreadsheet, its alot clearer that shoving is +EV because we win often enough even when called.

For instance, even if the villians only folded 50% of the time (conservative) and called our shove the other 50%, and assuming we only won half the flips when they call (also conservative), its still massively EV, as:

Villians folds = 0.5 * 900 = 450
Villian calls (but we win showdown) = 0.25 * 6000 = 1500
Villian calls (we lose at showdown) = 0.25 * -3000 = -750

Overall EV = 450+1500-750 = 1200

Sweet! Appreciate your comments.

[linaker]

Why is it an insta-shove pre-flop? Wouldnt a raise achieve the same outcome without putting our tourney on the line? Also, we have a hand that plays well post-flop if called. Couldnt we make more extracting post-flop?

Agree its a shove post-flop. Even if we are conservative and assume the As and Ks are partial outs (say 3 in total), that gives us 12 outs and ~ 50% equity, yes?

I will have a go trying to explain this, though I might well be wrong. Firstly if you raise 600 to say 900, then there will be 1500 in the pot. The button needs to call 600, so is getting 2.5 - 1, so it would be correct for him to call unless he is sure he is dominated. If he calls, then the SB is getting 3.5 - 1, so it would almost be correct for him to call if he is sure the BB has an overpair. You would need to raise 1200 to 1500, so that the button has to call 1200 into a pot of 2100 (1.75 - 1) to deny a hand like 98s the correct odds to call. If you raise to 1500, then you have put nearly half your stack in the pot, so you are pot committed. So really, you should shove the flop whatever it is, but if you are going to do that it would have been better to have shoved pre-flop. Even if you raise to just 900, you have almost a third of your stack invested, so you are still pot committed. Also, if you just raise and one of them shoves over your raise, then you are priced in to call, unless you are sure he has either Aces or Kings, but if you are going to call a shove (which you should) then why not shove yourself?

As the button and the SB both limped, its unlikely either has AA or KK unless they are trying some lame trap. They probably do not have a big pair like QQ - 99 either, so a lot of the worst hands for AKs can be ruled out. So if you shove and get called by one of them, you will be at worst 47% to win the hand (against 88) and probably have a lot better chance than that.

If you raise then you will only make a hand on the flop 32% of the time and maybe another 10 - 15% will give you a good draw. So you will have to win every one of these to achieve the same winning chance (47%) that you would have against 88 if you had shoved. Its unrealistic that you would win all of these, so sometimes you are going to have to win, when you flop nothing, but that is difficult. If the flop for the hand above had been Qs2h7d and the SB had bet 900, would you have been able to continue with AdKd?

12 outs gives 45% equity if you are guaranteed to see both the turn and the river.

[acoss3006]

Thanks lin.

I havent got time to go over this and absorb just now but it seems to me from the responses that our stack size/M is the key factor here. ie. if our stack was significantly bigger, raising would be an option..

[taipan168]

Thanks fellow Aussie.

No worries mate!

For instance, even if the villians only folded 50% of the time (conservative) and called our shove the other 50%, and assuming we only won half the flips when they call (also conservative), its still massively EV, as:

Villians folds = 0.5 * 900 = 450
Villian calls (but we win showdown) = 0.25 * 6000 = 1500
Villian calls (we lose at showdown) = 0.25 * -3000 = -750

Overall EV = 450+1500-750 = 1200

You're on the right track, but you're actually far better than 50% against the average $1.20 player's calling range. This is from Pokerstove, if you don't have it, download it (it's free):

equity win tie
Hand 0: 65.000% 62.22% 02.78% { AKs }
Hand 1: 35.000% 32.22% 02.78% { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QJs, A2o+, KTo+, QJo }

Even against a much tighter range you're still better than 50% to win:

equity win tie
Hand 0: 54.259% 48.08% 06.18% { AKs }
Hand 1: 45.741% 39.56% 06.18% { 77+, AJs+, AJo+ }

One other really relevant consideration here is the fact that it's the bubble and losing the hand puts you out in 4th whilst winning it doesn't guarantee you 1st place (put another way, chips you lose here are worth far more than chips you win). Look in the FAQs for a discussion of the Independent Chip Model (ICM) for an explanation of this.

[acoss3006]

Will do on ICM! Have got Pokerstove already.. really need to use it more tho..

[Raoni_Poker]

Yes, pushing here is mandatory.

I'm still getting used to 4-tabling, so...perhaps I'm playing too conservative because I'm not having the time I need to think about each play. Some decisions are not second nature to me yet.

[Kijjo]

raoni - try to keep a handle on which of your tables you're doing well and which you're getting short. I know I've been doing 4 tables now for a bit and that one key fact is easy to keep track of and enables you to make bold plays when the time is right. If you know that you're on the bubble and on the verge of 10BB's on the table to your bottom left (for ex.) then when that window pops up with AK and no one is allin yet, you just shove it. If you have to pause and ask yourself "What's my M? Who's shortest at the table? Is he involved in the pot? What's my best play?" - by that time your other tables are beeping at you and you're going to make a bad move somwhere. There will still be marginal spots you have to stop and think, but keeping a handle on which tables you are on the bubble with and which you're hovering around shortness with make the decisions much easier for me.
If you stack 'em, well forget about it.
Another trick I use to help myself keep track is if you're playing more than 4 (recently I played 8 while finishing a block of 100 for BOP - a little -EV for me still), I would keep my shortie tables on the left and my healthy stack tables on the right, laid out in columns. That way I was able to pay attention more carefully without doing much extra thinking. Depending on your software, this can get sickening to try and move 'em around I guess, but in Stars, the layout feature makes it very simple for me. I get 'em close to where they go and click on the layout I set up beforehand and it pops 'em right in nice and clean. Think I'll hold off on playing >4 for a while tho.

[whowants79]

it all depends on your chip stack how much are u willing 2 commit on a semi bluff on the flop i would have either pushed all in pre flop or all in on the flop and you can take the pot down there however if u play passively and control the pot u would check the turn and if u missed on the river u can get away 4m it without losing 2 much

[DetroitHusling101]

have not read all the replies , so i'm sure it's been pounded on but the only move preflop here is shove.

sorry to be harsh but checking pre is all kinds of TERRIBLE

once u made that mistake though your play on the flop is standard/best.