ATs flops TPTK, opp C-R AI on dry board ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp's stats were 24/15 over about 100 hands. I had a note on him that he had been very aggressive in the past. What's your move? Is he trying to pick off my c-bet?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 27 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 (t1500)
Hero (MP3) (t1520)
CO (t880)
Button (t2090)
SB (t1480)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1530)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)

Hero's M: 50.67

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 10, A
4 folds, Hero bets t80, 3 folds, BB calls t60

Flop: (t170) 3, 10, 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t120, BB raises to t1420 (All-In), Hero ????

[Alpine021]

Picking off your c-bet all day long. Probably K10 or the same hand as you. He'd want action with an over pair. No way he's got 2 pair on that board.

I just pass these all day long and pick your spots.

Stupid move no matter how u look at it. Not paid off with a good hand or he's crippled if u have a monster.

[rong]

I think this is a call. If he has hit big, why would he shove such a dry board? And I also imagine your cbet stat is very high.

[Nakamura]

I think this play is often made with middle pocket pairs and Tx type hands.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

93,060 games 0.005 secs 18,612,000 games/sec

Board: 3h Td 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.485% 62.19% 03.30% 57872 3068.00 { AhTh }
Hand 1: 34.515% 31.22% 03.30% 29052 3068.00 { 55+, 33, AKs, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, AKo, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }

If you take the more marginal hands out of the range like AA, KK, QT and the middle pockets, it becomes a lot closer.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.381% 43.22% 07.17% 17541 2908.50 { AhTh }
Hand 1: 49.619% 42.45% 07.17% 17232 2908.50 { QQ-TT, 55, 33, ATs, KTs, JTs, ATo, KTo, JTo }

I think I call here since I often expect an aggressive player to make this play with worse T's and hands like 99 etc.

[Nakamura]

If he has hit big, why would he shove such a dry board?

To balance his strategy. His strategy would be very exploitable if he only pushed his marginal hands here. By pushing his best hands as well, he disguises the times he is pushing with a marginal hand. It's not a bad strategy if Hero is often thinking of folding TPTK.

[Extremophile]

If he has hit big, why would he shove such a dry board?

To balance his strategy. His strategy would be very exploitable if he only pushed his marginal hands here. By pushing his best hands as well, he disguises the times he is pushing with a marginal hand. It's not a bad strategy if Hero is often thinking of folding TPTK.

This is not quite drawish flop but Harrington advises to shove on drawish boards when you already hit a set or a big hand. He claims that the opp may put you on a draw and call your bet with crap. Again, just to balance your play.

[TLR]

I will call this, if he is aggressive there are tons of stuff in his range that you beat

[baudib]

Snap call IMO. Almost impossible to put him on a set or JJ+ and there are tons of hands he does this with that we have crushed.

I think this is always Tx,77-99, or ace-small with a wheel draw.

[losttrem]

Tbh I'd fold this pre. AT is a hand with pretty bad reversed implied odds. As played I would probably call, as this is pretty much the best flop we could have hoped for that doesnt give us the nuts or a monster draw. But it would be a crying call and a reminder why I usually dont play ATs early.

[DrStrangeShove]

Tough one, but Im folding here. Although it does seem like a "please fold" AI, theres got to be a better spot to take this guy out.

[baudib]

For those folding please put villain on a range. I cannot come up with a realistic range where we're not getting it in up at least 2-1.

[DrStrangeShove]

K10/Q10 seem to be very likely. 10's+ definitely out. But, just because its early, I can see a 24/15 calling PF with 53s or 510s hoping to catch something decent. After all, what's 60 chips early? And I guess Ax gutshot is likely too, but a shove to take down that pot? I think fold or call could both be decent plays here.

(I've been up all night watching ESPN's 24hr basketball tip off so theres a good chance theres holes in this post--mostly just devil's advocate stuff)