77 UTG 4-handed ($12 turbo)

[Nakamura]

Opponent is on the looser side at 35/24/2.2 over 50 hands. What's your move?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 12 Tournament, 150/300 Blinds (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t2960)
BB (t1690)
Hero (UTG) (t3980)
MP (t4870)

Hero's M: 8.84

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7, 7
Hero bets t750, MP raises to t1200, Hero ??

[Extremophile]

I hate those donk minraises. He probably minraised instantly. They sometimes do this with crap, some suited connectors, suited weak aces, small pairs, etc. I believe we are ahead of their range most of the time and I shove. I don't care about the short stack because, if we double up, we will have good chances to take it down.

[taipan168]

I'd open shove this the first time around to avoid putting yourself in this situation.

As played, you have to let it go because you're the second stack against the big stack on the bubble, and even though you're most likely probably ahead of his range I don't think you're far enough ahead to make calling +EV once you take the ICM effect into account, and given his stats I doubt that opp will fold enough of the time to make up the difference.

[Extremophile]

Well, if you don't want to flip we can still call since, we have the right set odds.

[losttrem]

We have to call 450 chips with about 3200 behind. This is no where near sufficient implied odds to set mine.

I agree with taipan open shove and avoid to get in this spot. As played this is a fold. The only time I would ever std raise here is as a trap vs non-regs. If there was a reg or two in the mix I'd open shove my whole range.

[Extremophile]

We have to call 450 chips with about 3200 behind. This is no where near sufficient implied odds to set mine.

There is already 2400 in the pot and we have 3230 left. We need to put 450 to win 3230+2400=5630. So, we are getting 5630/450=12.51 which is way more than the required set odds of 9/1.

[Nakamura]

Taipan and losttrem, I can't find appropriate calling ranges in WIZ to make this a push. Even if you if you give the opponents quite tight calling ranges of 88+, AQ+, ATs+ (for the MP), JJ+, AK+, AKs+ (for the SB) and 33+, A4s+, A7o+, KTs+ (for the BB), it's -EV

I normally just push PF in these spots if I think it's +EV, but I felt at the time the a push was marginal at best. Now that I've checked WIZ, it's hard to see pushing as +EV.

[taipan168]

Taipan and losttrem, I can't find appropriate calling ranges in WIZ to make this a push. Even if you if you give the opponents quite tight calling ranges of 88+, AQ+, ATs+ (for the MP), JJ+, AK+, AKs+ (for the SB) and 33+, A4s+, A7o+, KTs+ (for the BB).

I normally just push PF in these spots if I think it's +EV, but I felt at the time the a push was marginal at best. Now that I've checked WIZ, it's hard to see pushing as +EV.

77 would be the bottom of my pushing range in this spot. If pushing is not +EV then I'd just fold and move on.

[losttrem]

There is already 2400 in the pot and we have 3230 left. We need to put 450 to win 3230+2400=5630. So, we are getting 5630/450=12.51 which is way more than the required set odds of 9/1.

You have to factor in that villain might not stack off when we hit, could hit an overset and have us stack off and if we fold we still have the second biggest stack at the bubble. Calling and set mining would be really spewy here.

[losttrem]

77 would be the bottom of my pushing range in this spot. If pushing is not +EV then I'd just fold and move on.

I agree with this. If a hand is not good enough to shove here it's not good enough to play at all. Raise/folding with your stack sizes is too spewy. You want to conserve your chips for a better spot.

[Extremophile]

There is already 2400 in the pot and we have 3230 left. We need to put 450 to win 3230+2400=5630. So, we are getting 5630/450=12.51 which is way more than the required set odds of 9/1.

You have to factor in that villain might not stack off when we hit, could hit an overset and have us stack off and if we fold we still have the second biggest stack at the bubble. Calling and set mining would be really spewy here.

Thanks for the reply. I guess tai is tired of replying to my wierd arguments. If I am boring you, sorry about that. I am really tired right now and I am not sure If I am wrong but, I'd like to discuss it further.

Here are my concerns,

a) how many times do you think he will c-bet? After we call, the pot will be 2850 already and we will have only 2780 left. It won't be difficult to stack him if he bets like half the pot.

b) If we argue that he slow plays the flop, or the entire board, we will already get value against coin flip hands.

[Nakamura]

Is this spewy if we are prepared to stack off against the SB or BB, but fold to a CO raise?

[Nakamura]

a) how many times do you think he will c-bet? After we call, the pot will be 2850 already and we will have only 2780 left. It won't be difficult to stack him if he bets like half the pot.

b) If we argue that he slow plays the flop, or the entire board, we will already get value against coin flip hands.

If he has a decent hand he'll c-bet like 80 or 90% of the time and we will stack him. However, a loose player probably has plenty of Ax hands in his range here and they may refuse to give you any further action when they miss the board. I think the end result is that you need better than 9:1 pot odds, but less than the standard 15:1.

[losttrem]

Thanks for the reply. I guess tai is tired of replying to my wierd arguments. If I am boring you, sorry about that. I am really tired right now and I am not sure If I am wrong but, I'd like to discuss it further.

Here are my concerns,

a) how many times do you think he will c-bet? After we call, the pot will be 2850 already and we will have only 2780 left. It won't be difficult to stack him if he bets like half the pot.

b) If we argue that he slow plays the flop, or the entire board, we will already get value against coin flip hands.

The main problem here is that we have to call off a big percentage of our stack with the intention of folding the flop 87,5% of the time. Our implied odds have to make up for all the times we miss, all the times we dont get paid and all the times we flop the second best hand (set over set is only one of those options). Considering this is the bubble and you don't play SNGs to win but to cash, this is not a good play, even if the opponent c-bets a lot.

[losttrem]

Is this spewy if we are prepared to stack off against the SB or BB, but fold to a CO raise?

I'd say so. It is a very exploitable play, especially when you already stated that villain is "on the looser side". Why would you present him situations he can take full advantage of?

[Alpine021]

Well given his PFR is 24 which is quite high u still have to give him credit for raising. I mean is it only 24 as he has loosened up quite rightly towards the end stages or has he played loose the whole game?

The raise is fine 4 handed but I'd let it go. I don't like raise folding but we all know ranges widen when blinds are worth stealing so it doesn't look that weak to fold given that we don't do it too often as this is obviously exploitable.

Flat calling is pretty much out of the question as we are in trouble with a lot of flops unless we are prepared to fight for the pot when we could be crushed. I agree some ppl could be doing this with Ax suited or something just as bad but without a 7 we are out of position with 1/4 of our stack in the middle.

[taipan168]

Thanks for the reply. I guess tai is tired of replying to my wierd arguments. If I am boring you, sorry about that. I am really tired right now and I am not sure If I am wrong but, I'd like to discuss it further.

No worries, this is what the forums are for!

a) how many times do you think he will c-bet? After we call, the pot will be 2850 already and we will have only 2780 left. It won't be difficult to stack him if he bets like half the pot.

True, but because it is big stack vs big stack on the bubble - a) if he knows what he's doing, he's going to be cautious here and b) the ICM effect is pretty severe here so I'd say we need somewhat more than the "usual" 15x to have correct implied odds to call here.

[Extremophile]

Thanks tai. I guess I was wrong about the set odds. The odds of flopping a set is given as 10.775% on here: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...flopping%20set. That is 100/10.775=9.28. Can you explain where 15/1 comes from?

Also, if I understand it correct, should we just fold pre because our play is exploitable?

[Extremophile]

OK I got the answer :

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...-pair-t83.html

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es-t31291.html