$12/180: 99 flops an overpair after preflop raise

[taipan168]

No real reads on any of these guys, except that I think the guy who shoved over on the flop had stats of something like 20/13. What's your move?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 12 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 (t5450)
CO (t2945)
Button (t1325)
SB (t280)
BB (t2865)
UTG (t1425)
Hero (UTG+1) (t2175)
MP1 (t2255)

Hero's M: 29.00

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9, 9
1 fold, Hero bets t150, MP1 calls t150, MP2 calls t150, 3 folds, BB calls t100

Flop: (t625) 3, 7, 7 (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t400, 1 fold, MP2 raises to t5300 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero ????

[baudib]

He shouldn't have too many 7s in his range, although he is a big stack, so he could show up with 87/76 here...Still, he has a PP and doesn't think you have one or has something like AdQd most of the time.

If we assume he would have 3-bet with QQ pre and that he wouldn't shove 33 or quads, I have you around 40%-43% against his range so it looks like a call, but close.

[drmcboy]

agree with baudib

[revolvingiris]

Ill play devils advocate and say fold. It would also be really tough but I think I would check this flop. I think villain would rarely/if ever do this with 55.

Hand 0: 38.263% { 9h9s }
Hand 1: 61.737% { AdAs, AhAs, JJ-TT, 9c9d, 88, 7c7h, 5d5s, 5h5s, 33, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7s6s }

edit: removed AKd-AQd from villains range as these are almost never there.

[fjuanl]

Its a call with that range. His pot odds are 1.87/1 so he only needs 35%

[revolvingiris]

(25+50+150+150+150+100+400+1625)=2650/1625=1.63

I keep getting 38% which could still be a call but I fold a lot of even EV spots.

[fjuanl]

Hero has 2025 left on flop and 1625 after cbetting.

Pot would be 625+400+2025 = 3050

3050/1625 = 1.87/1

[baudib]

Iris, once again I find your ranges for villain to be odd...why do you have AA there but not QQ-KK? I find all three to be unlikely. Why wouldn't he have AK or AQ diamonds?

[revolvingiris]

As usual fjuanl is right and I cant count...

People are more likely to slow play AA than KK-QQ by a pretty big margin (same with AK-AQ). It is unlikely that all 3 pairs show up here which is why I only included 2 instances of AA. I took out AK-AQd because no one is playing either of those like this.

[baudib]

wat

[revolvingiris]

wat

AK, AQ, KK, QQ aren't "slow play for value" hands for your average $12 180 player. These would certainly raise pf I would have to say 100% of the time at this level. Psychologically AA is more of a slow play for weak players but even including AA 33% of the time like this seems a bit much for villain.

And actually even with this board texture I would be weighted more to over pairs, and 7x. If villain is shoving with 2 overs+FD we are concluding that villain knows how to semi-bluff which means he is at least aware. Tai didn't give any indication that villain was particularly good.

[baudib]

so they would raise AdJd but not AdKd?

are you leveling yourself?

[revolvingiris]

so they would raise AdJd but not AdKd?

are you leveling yourself?

They didnt raise? Villain flatted pf.

[baudib]

they called a raise from an EP raiser.

[revolvingiris]

right but villains generally don't understand flat calling with a big pairs to disguise at this level. Which is why I took out AK, AQ, KK, QQ pf as those hands are almost 3betting tai pre. I still see a lot of villains slowplay AA in multiway pots which is why I included it in the range 33%.

[baudib]

no one put KK/QQ in his range. Plenty of people limp or flat raises with AK/AQ all the time.

[revolvingiris]

no one put KK/QQ in his range.

why do you have AA there but not QQ-KK?

From what I have seen AK-AQ is not in a lot of peoples flat calling range pf. Not saying it doesn't happen but from my observations it happens rarely enough to where I didn't think it needed to be added.

[baudib]

i'm just trying to figure out your logic, i'm struggling with it. i don't have any pairs above JJ in his range.

[revolvingiris]

Idk how else to say villains will slow play AA some % of the time but rarely with KK-QQ. Its more their psychology and not my logic.

[Poker Orifice]

no one put KK/QQ in his range.

why do you have AA there but not QQ-KK?

From what I have seen AK-AQ is not in a lot of peoples flat calling range pf. Not saying it doesn't happen but from my observations it happens rarely enough to where I didn't think it needed to be added.

In early levels to an EP raise you don't see alot of players flatting w AK AQ?? I see it all the time.
Post-flop looks like AdQd in a big way to me.

[G2G]

if i lead into this pot i dont see my self folding.