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Weird spot AQs

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  1. #1

    Default Weird spot AQs

    UTG is a winning regular mtt player, he has recently bet JTo MP, J7s MP, and one other weak hand. He also cbets nearly everytime. He is capable of folding a big hand.
    UTG+2 has been adjusting by calling light and floating/attempting to steal on turn and river.

    The first problem is preflop whether or not to shove. I definitely would with more reads he opens light UTG or if he was betting anywhere except the first few spots.

    2nd problem is what to do on the flop. I could flat and try to peal a 9 or K. Or Fold to preserve my stack. Or shove because I am representing massive strength and still have equity if he decides to call with an overpair. I'm just not sure how much FE I have here.

    Let me know what you think.

    $100+9 67players. 27 left.

    No Limit Holdem Tournament
    10 Players

    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
    $4,500 GP Freezeout Buy-In: $100+$9
    Hero is MP2 dealt AdQd

    Stacks:
    UTG (13,011)
    UTG+1 (6,405)
    UTG+2 (4,903)
    MP1 (9,165)
    MP2 (3,590)
    MP3 (1,273)
    CO (2,510)
    BTN (7,738)
    SB (1,266)
    BB (8,018)

    Blinds: 80/160

    Pre-Flop: (240, 10 players)
    UTG raises to 480, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls 480, 1 fold, MP2 calls 480, 5 folds

    Flop: (1,680, 3 players)
    UTG bets 840, UTG+2 calls 840, Hero?
  2. #2
    Meh, this is a fold or shove preflop. I don't like calling off over 10% of my stack. As played, its a fold on that flop. UTG is betting into two players on a pretty drawy flop.
  3. #3
    Really nice opportunity to squeeze preflop given your reads. I'd shove or fold pre with my whole range.

    Flop may be a fold because I would expect to only have gutter outs if you shove. And some of those outs might be dirty (theres a flush draw possibility). Not sure though since your getting such a good price
  4. #4
    Fold pre, we're well behind any decent player's UTG range and he's not folding much of it.

    Optimistically we have 14 outs to make a hand, that's pretty unlikely though as our outs are in opponents' hands or dirty or no good (assuming they have TT+, AJ+, Asxs, KJ/KQ).

    Realistically we have somewhere around 6-9 outs, I don't think we have any FE but I'd still shove over as the pot's too big to give up on.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  5. #5
    With that read I would shove over pf. Also given your read I think you have to lay this down. This type of flop seems to hit both of their ranges pretty hard. I mean you could have more outs but it basically looks like you would be praying for a 9.

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