$10+1 first hand JJ on the button

[RockyMoose]

First hand of a FullTilt $10+1 STT:

Hero is button with JJ. Folds around. Hero opens for 90 (3x).

SB insta-raises to 333. BB folds.

No reads, this is the first hand. My gut is telling me the SB is playing a meta-game with me. He's saying: "You want to steal my blinds? Not in this tourney, buddy!"

Hero ??

[Alpine021]

Re-raise to 333??? that's over 20% of your starting stack! Sharkscope helps for stuff like this. I load up the whole table before I even start.

But even just on the surface with no info it looks like a pair 77-1010 or AK and he doesn't want to fold hence the over-raise.

Hes probably thinking if u fold then great and if u call he will probably shove the flop as the pot will be so big with relation to stacks for no real reason.

As for whether to call it's tough. He actually could have JJ+ although unlikely. I reckon you're looking at AK to be honest.

If his hand was face up and was AK would u call? I probably wouldn't but some people might.

[acoss3006]

Your crushed by AA-QQ.. your flipping against AK.. your crushing 22-TT.

But why risk it first hand?

[baudib]

Assuming you have no reads since it's the first hand, I'd lay it down, as many players only 3bet QQ+.

[Nakamura]

I would definitely call if I knew he had AK. I used to think calling in these spots was bad as you are essentially flipping, but this completely ignores big stack dynamics. You are 56% to win the hand and that big stack will carry a lot of weight around the table, particularly in the early stages. It will be worth more than what ICM predicts since you can really push other players around.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

164,381,184 games 0.250 secs 657,524,736 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.148% 55.94% 00.20% 91959624 336876.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 43.852% 43.65% 00.20% 71747808 336876.00 { AKs, AKo }


As for his real range something like 99+ or AQo+ seem more or less right. You don't have enough against this range. The problem here though is ranging your opponent is really difficult. Some opponents will only make this move with QQ+, others will do this with 66 or KQs. Obviously, if he's using the latter range, it's a push.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

647,250,912 games 0.781 secs 828,746,366 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.184% 49.22% 00.96% 318570540 6243024.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 49.816% 48.85% 00.96% 316194324 6243024.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

[Extremophile]

If I understand it correct, this is a fold because it is an STT. If this was an MTT it would be a push, wouldn't it? According to the ranges given by Naka, we are flipping but, I think there are more PPs and weak As in his range against a button steal.

[taipan168]

Considering that you raised from the button, I'd say his range is substantially wider than 99+, AQ+ (which I'd be happy to shove over against) and this is likely to be a resteal against your supposed button steal, so I would definitely shove over here. If he has QQ+, fire up a new one if you don't suck out.

[RockyMoose]

Taipan: sick, just sick. Are you ever wrong?

What happened:
I went into the tank. I was pretty sure he was restealing. I decided calling was wrong: tough spot if overcards flop, and it was either shove or fold.

Hero shoves.

Villain BLUFF CALLS with T5o!

[taipan168]

Villain BLUFF CALLS with T5o!

There's no such thing as a bluff call. This is what is known as a HEE HAW DONK I KNOW I'M BEAT BUT I'M SO SHIT AT POKER AND/OR MY EGO IS SO BIG THAT I CAN'T FOLD call.