ICM Question

[Nysze]

Hey, first post. I've been playing poker for a couple months (about 200 games, I know thats not that many compared to what some of ya'll do), very mild success (2% ROI), atleast it's not negative though =P.

Recently I started using SitNGo wiz to learn this ICM stuff, I get ICM for the most part but this one question confuses me. And is there a way to make SNGwiz convert the hand to text so i don't have to type it?

6plyrs, SB125, Bb225
UTG: 757 open%: 33
UGT+1: 1974
CO: 685
Button: 1525
SB: 2435
Hero: 1199

hero: Qd 8d
UTG, pushes, 4 folds

I said fold but I knew it could be call, but what threw me off was it says call with 85% of hands, that seems way too high, can someone explain why?

[linaker]

Hello. Welcome. There is a way to convert text hand histories for posting here - see Hand Converter under Popular tools right. Unfortunately, those converted hands contain links and you need to have made 10 posts before you can post links.

In the hand you posted, when the action gets to you, the pot is 1107 and you need to put in 532 chips to call the UTG's push. So you are getting about 2 - 1 or to be more accurate need a winning chance of 32% to make calling correct. That's a pretty easy call - you are going to have a 40% chance or better against many hands. Q8s is 44% against A6o, 47.5% against 77 and 56% against JTs. Even against AQo, you have a 30% chance which is almost enough. The only hands you definitely do not want him to have are QQ+.

The above is all true for a cash game, but this is a SnG, so if you call and lose you have 442 chips and are the short stack and your chances of making money in this SnG are drastically reduced. ICM says that you need better odds to make this call than you would in a cash game, because of that risk. If he's pushing his best 33% hands then Q8s has a 41% chance of winning against that range, so that 9% edge must be enough to make the call profitable, despite the risk of losing.

[Nysze]

Thanks, I get it now.

[taipan168]

Hi and welcome to FTR, it's good to have you here.

On the hand conversion, don't worry about converting the hands until you have 10 posts, you can just post them raw from the HH on your hard drive.

On your hand, I think linaker gave a very good explanation, and assuming that the 33% shove range is appropriate for opp (some will shove tighter than this) it does seem like a call.