[$4,40 180-man] Semibluff AI?

[Jack Sawyer]

The whole table has been uncharacteristically aggressive. I have raised pre in lp before, but its the first time I cbet on this particular table. Turn play?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 4.4 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Replayer from Poker Hands Replayer



Button (t6403)
SB (t2551)
BB (t1341)
UTG (t4135)
UTG+1 (t2764)
MP1 (t1695)
MP2 (t2935)
Jizzy Sawya (CO) (t1971)

Jizzy Sawya's M: 26.28

Preflop: Jizzy Sawya is CO with ,
4 folds, Jizzy Sawya bets t150, 1 fold, SB calls t125, 1 fold

Flop: (t350) , , (2 players)
SB checks, Jizzy Sawya bets t200, SB calls t200

Turn: (t750) (2 players)
SB bets t700, Hero (t1621) ?

[Penneywize]

I'm a nit, so I fold preflop without ever thinking about it again, even if I'm somehow forced to spend eternity in a white room with no reading material whatsoever.

As played, the flop bet is fine. The float/turn bet by our opponent is probably total BS, but even an A high beats us here, so I fold.

Also, I'm probably wrong and will be embarrassed by forthcoming comments by real MTT players, but there you have it sir.

For a (very) fun exercise, try putting a range of hands on our villain and seeing what type of odds we need to call (don't worry, obviously I am not suggesting a call here under any circumstances).

If it's close, we can probably attribute a decent chunk of fold equity to our potential push move - which may turn out to be +EV. I doubt it, because of your stack size, but it's worth checking out.

[Penneywize]

Just reread your OP - NM about the stack size bit. You have enough behind to screw the odds on a call. Come up with a range for the villain and draw conclusions. I'll post my own analysis if you'd like.

[Extremophile]

The whole table has been uncharacteristically aggressive.

I always fold this hand when it is 9-handed. Your read above makes it an instant fold preflop since, we will get value for our premium hands against LAGGs.

As played, turn is an instant fold. I see no reason to call or raise on the turn. We can't even beat Ax and Kx bluffs. Besides, we might be drawing dead already. Villian has already made a pot size bet and I don't think we have any fold equity for bluffing the turn; not even close to 50%.

[Poker Orifice]

really ez fold for me (although my decision was difficult due to avatar distraction).
What types of hands would u consider flatting here with if you were in SB? (preflop)

[Poker Orifice]

Also, with table being 'uncharacteristically aggressive'... I'm folding this preflop. The 75 chips just isn't worth it imo.

[Jack Sawyer]

I'll post my own analysis if you'd like.

Please do.

[mcatdog]

Preflop is pretty bad. If you know it's an aggressive table and you still raised Q9o from the CO then you must not be thinking at all about how to adjust to the table. I know you probably don't want to hear about preflop, but it's the most important street, especially in tournaments. Even if you play well postflop it's hard to make money if you're a bad preflop player.

On the turn, he has something like A7 a lot but his line is just retarded and I think he sometimes has some kind of king high float that he's going to fold if you shove. If we give you 30% equity when called, you only need him to fold like 1/4 of the time to a shove, which I think he does.

[Extremophile]

On the turn, he has something like A7 a lot but his line is just retarded and I think he sometimes has some kind of king high float that he's going to fold if you shove. If we give you 30% equity when called, you only need him to fold like 1/4 of the time to a shove, which I think he does.

This simple math explains everything. I am feeling stupid for making comments without doing the math. I am also surprised with 30% equity we get on the turn. I'll leave range assignment part to someone else.

total pot on the turn after we go AI and villian calls: (1621x2)+750=3992

each time we have 30% of the total pot: 0.3x3992= 1197 (we have 30% equity)
each time we put the rest of our chips in= 1621
the EV of the play is 1192-1621=-429 per hand


the dead money in the pot= 750+700=1450
if the villian calls it 3 times we are losing 3x429=1287
if he folds 4th time we are winning the dead money=1450

As a result, if the villian folds 1/4 of the time we make=1450-1287=163 chips.


I hope the calculations are correct.

mcatdog how did you calculate it that fast? or, you just didn't want to show your work?

[Penneywize]

mcatdog how did you calculate it that fast? or, you just didn't want to show your work?

My understanding is that if you do these EV calculation exercises often enough, you are able to apply what you've learned to a vast number of similar, or marginally-different situations. In this case, we're facing a bet on the turn with an open ender and enough stack size left to induce a fold with a repush - not an uncommon predicament.

[mcatdog]

Yeah it's just a pretty common spot and I've done the calc enough times that I can make a good approximation in my head.

Of course the math can only supplement your reads on what villain's range is. If you think you have no fold equity then you should still fold turn. I think the texture of the board, your small flop bet and how goofy villain's line is, all mean that we do have some fold equity here.

[baudib]

I'd expect SB to have trips or better here like almost never.

[Penneywize]

I'd expect SB to have trips or better here like almost never.

Yeah. I pretty much agree with this. It just seems like an incredibly silly line to take with those types of hands if you're the villain.

Jack, I'll get on a fairly rigorous assessment of ranges and such a little later on, hopefully tonight. If someone beats me to it, that's alright too.

[fjuanl]

I don't really think Jack has any fold equity given the board texture since his shove would be essentially a minraise. If villain has any kind of pair, open ender or gutshot they cant fold. And I just don't see people doing this with no pair/draw. I was surprised by the stove results though

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,058,210 games 0.037 secs 55,627,297 games/sec

Board: 6s 7h 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.585% 35.16% 07.42% 723729 152752.50 { Q9o }
Hand 1: 57.415% 49.99% 07.42% 1028976 152752.50 { A9s-A7s, A5s, KTs-K8s, QTs-Q8s, J8s+, T8s-T7s, 97s+, 75s, A9o-A7o, A5o, KTo-K8o, QTo-Q9o, J9o+, 97o+ }


The range doesn't have any boats, straights or trips but does have 8x

[Extremophile]

OK, I'll be the one to comment on fjuanl's analysis. I have just realized that our hand is ahead of none of the hands in villian's range. I am also surprised Q high can get this much of equity on the turn. There are some times when we have straight AND flush draws on the turn but still get 30% equity.