AK spot in stuper

[drmcboy]

150 fo

I have been at table for 6 hands. BU I have stats from another tourney, he ran 8/6 there (80 hands), no other notes. SB is 50/0 over the 6 hands. toss in a raise somewhere?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 162 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 (t3497)
MP2 (t2937)
CO (t4191)
Button (t3440)
SB (t6022)
BB (t4045)
Hero (UTG) (t5950)
UTG+1 (t3890)

Hero's M: 39.67

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, K
Hero bets t250, 4 folds, Button calls t250, SB calls t200, 1 fold

Flop: (t850) K, J, 8 (3 players)
SB bets t300, Hero calls t300, Button calls t300

Turn: (t1750) 5 (3 players)
SB bets t600, Hero calls t600, Button calls t600

River: (t3550) 3 (3 players)
SB bets t1300, Hero..

[baudib]

With no info on SB I would usually raise the flop but after the button calls, I guess we try to get to showdown as cheap as possible but I can be too weak tight in multiway pots.

I guess I'd just call the river and feel stupid when SB shows AJ and button shows KQ.

[fjuanl]

I like flop call because I think a raise gets him to fold too much. [edit: Raising flop might be best actually...hmm]

Since its the likely fishy SB leading I'd raise turn when he bets that small. Then you can shove most rivers. As played I'm really tempted to shove bc I think SB won't be able to fold Kx and your line can seem bluffy

BTN probably raises flop with JJ+/88 and doesn't have KJ in his range.

[baudib]

What kind of range do you put button on? I suppose shoving river is best because button is never overcalling with worse.

[fjuanl]

BTN:
AJ - Good players don't call turn, but some nits are really bad postflop
QTs - Makes sense
KQ - Most likely
T9s - Its possible
KsKd

He's likely never calling with worse when we put in a raise but that doesn't matter with a fish in the pot

[baudib]

I agree Button has KQ, he's either calling or shoving the river so I guess shoving the river is best.

[Extremophile]

It is too risky to slowplay this against two villians. I'd raise the flop to get info and to isolate the fish. Our position is great to squeeze on the flop because, BU must have a really big hand to continue, with already a bet and a raise before him. If BU calls we are probably in trouble.

[chardrian]

Depends if you want to go for stacks or want to control the pot.

Your line is fine/best if you are unwilling to stack off with TPTK here.

Raise turn if you want to go for stacks.

[Extremophile]

Can you explain why we are slowplaying this flop? If we don't raise the flop, drawing hands will get good pot odds. I also think that our hand is quite vulnerable if we don't isolate one of them on the flop; our equity will decrease.

[baudib]

what draws are we worried about exactly

[Extremophile]

SB is running 50%, he might have any of SD hands possible on this flop. Even if they have x8, xJ, or xK, they might impove to two pair. Our equity just decreases 3-way.

vs. 2 villians:

Hand 0: 60.983% 60.35% 00.63% 1688874 17673.67 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 17.009% 16.37% 00.64% 458115 17851.17 { KK, AQs-AJs, KQs, QTs, T9s, AQo-AJo, KQo }
Hand 2: 22.008% 21.51% 00.50% 602021 13862.17 { AJs-ATs, A8s, K8s+, Q8s, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, 84s+, AJo-ATo, K8o+ }


vs. BU:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.599% 80.11% 00.49% 30139 182.50 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 19.401% 18.92% 00.49% 7116 182.50 { KK, AQs-AJs, KQs, QTs, T9s, AQo-AJo, KQo }


vs. SB:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 74.034% 73.68% 00.36% 70023 339.00 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 25.966% 25.61% 00.36% 24339 339.00 { AJs-ATs, A8s, K8s+, Q8s, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, 84s+, AJo-ATo, K8o+ }

Besides we are making it even cheaper for them by calling donkbets of SB.

[drmcboy]

Flop - I did not think SB would lead with a draw here much, or that he would call a lot of raises with worse than TP. Plus I get a cheap look at what the button does. I'm expecting at worst he has 5 outs if we are ahead and he may have something where making two pair won't turn out so well for him.

turn - once BU calls behind what is his range to lead the turn? And call a shove? it seems clear to everyone in the thread BU has KQ but know one thinks he can see that as well?

[baudib]

I'd be amazed if SB has us beat. I think his range is almost always TPNK or 2nd pair.

[drmcboy]

Do you think he'll call a flop raise or turn shove with those?

[baudib]

If he's in the pot with KT or AJ out of the blinds vs. a good player raising UTG, anything is possible.

I know it's a mistake to whittle opponents ranges down to just a couple of hands, but it's hard to see what the button can have other than KQ or MAYBE an open-ender on the flop...

after much thought, we have to shove the river for value:
1. our hand is fairly under-repped, if I were observing I'd probably put you on QQ.
2. shove looks bluffy after our weakish call down of two streets.
3. The board is about as good for TPTK as could be in a multiway pot, if we are certain that button has KQ there are so few combos of two pair/sets that TPTK is pretty much the nuts here.

[drmcboy]

Do you think he'll call a flop raise or turn shove with those?

fwiw I def think BU has KQ, but no one seems to care that it's pretty obvious he does and SB still leads turn.

So to be clear you're shoving river assuming BU folds KQ and SB calls with KT/AJ?

[baudib]

OK Doc I guess you're implying that you're beat. My initial response was to just call the river and there might still be merit in that if the button will overcall with KQ but fold to a shove. FWIW I think a bad player is going to feel potstuck and call with Kx here.

If we take out the total air like QT/AQ and underpairs I think we're realistically still ahead.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.061% 51.52% 04.55% 136 12.00 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 00.000% 00.00% 00.00% 0 0.00 { KQs, KQo }
Hand 2: 43.939% 39.39% 04.55% 104 12.00 { AA, JJ, 88, AKs, AJs, K8s+, AKo, AJo, KTo+ }

[drmcboy]

I'm mostly just wanting a coherent line if people think this is not best. people keep saying raise "here" but when I ask for hands that will call ...

What is the range of? He leads AJ on the river? He can't possibly think AJ is good or a bluff will work, right? I get that he's 50/0 over 6 hands but that doesn't make him a total drooler yet in my book.

I still have 4k or so, I don't think pot stuck applies either. I would be shoving over BU as well so again unless he is level super 0 I don't see how he could call.

I try and limit myself replying in my own threads unless I'm saying something new and I'm not so I'll just give this one up, ty for replies

Results

I called, BU folded, SB showed KJ. I like the way I played it and thought SB's line was really interesting in these spots (when he has two pair +) where unless we have Ks he can't get action and the stacks aren't great to get action on check raises.

[mcatdog]

Button's range is KQ and sets, and maybe once in awhile a horribly played AJ. This guy is 8/6 albeit over a small sample. His range is narrow and likely doesn't include any combos of QT or T9. SB's range is mostly bad kings and other dumb hands, but he also has KJ fairly often.

I'm not raising anywhere because I think you walk right into a monster more often than SB calls a river shove with a hand you beat.

[CorbinDallas]

50/0 in 6 hands.... no one thinks sb has QT?

i see plenty of fish bet exactly like that... and then bluff river.