Wierd spot against fish 50nl

[shakesss]

This hand was a bit tricky to play because of the opponent i was up against. Villain who is the BB in this case was a 56/27/4.1 after 85 hands. We played two pots before this. One of them he c/r me on the flop with 55 on js7s4h. I was the pfr and called his raise and took the hand to sd without nemore action. I called him down with second pair in another spot where he raised oop and i called with j10 otb and called him down on three streets with one over to the ten. It was good at sd, he was bluffing with some raggy connectors. I feel that when this hand came up there might be a lil meta going on but couldn't be sure. When he flats my raise and chx to me what do u think will be the best line to take. his sd stats are 27/33 (wtsd/w$sd).


No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool

Hero (Button) ($51.83)
SB ($43.88)
BB ($47.32)
UTG ($116.36)
MP ($50.99)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Jd, 10d
1 fold, MP bets $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, SB calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($7) 8d, 7d, 2c (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP bets $3.50, Hero raises $10.50, 1 fold, BB calls $10.50, 1 fold

Turn: Qc ($31.50) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ???

[nutsinho]

definitely dont raise flop. now take free card but id prob call a river bet on a brick

[shakesss]

Is this never a raise on the flop or is it specific to the situation?

[nutsinho]

you have an awesome draw in position vs both the pfr and the donk. you dont want to blow anyone out of the pot

[shakesss]

cool. thanks for the insight. i tend to raise these spots more often than not and that might be a big leak. these spots get pretty nasty 100b deep when the turn bricks.

[Marshall28]

It's not a leak to raise here, raising here is clearly +ev. It's just that calling is more +ev.

[griffey24]

definitely dont raise flop. now take free card but id prob call a river bet on a brick

umm wait, am I misunderstanding.

You want to hero call J high on the riv, if it bricks off like a 2 or something?

You think 9T, 56 makes up a big enough part of fish's range? I Just feel like fish do weird crap and end up betting stuff like K8 on river just because... or even Axdd,Kxdd as a bluff.

[Marshall28]

It's reasonable to call a brick river since if the fish picks up showdown value he's always going to check and there are so many draws on this board that miss, if you can read his sizing it's probably profitable to pick it off. You only lose to Kxdd and Qxdd, Axdd will chk river because it has showdown value.

[dsaxton_1]

It's not a leak to raise here, raising here is clearly +ev. It's just that calling is more +ev.

If calling is "more +EV" than raising, then raising is a leak.

I agree with griffey about calling being pretty questionable. A fishy player will bet the river with a lot of hands that don't make sense to bet but nonetheless have us beat.

My initial thought was to raise the flop to try to win the pot outright, but I like calling as well. I highly doubt either play is much of a mistake.

[Marshall28]

Apparently you don't know what a leak is.