Last 4 $20 rebuy- Call or fold??

[DarkHorse83]

Cant seem to get this hand converted, nevertheless input would be appreciated. Hero has a fairly tight image. SB has just doubled last hand after flopping a set but has not been seen to get out of line at any stage.


***** Hand History For Game 8804774722 *****
10000/20000 -- Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4 (antes 500)

Seat 2: SB (813666)
Seat 4: Hero (BB) (362233)
Seat 7: UTG (276780)
Seat 8: Button (455321)

Dealt to Hero [ Ac, Kh ]
UTG folds
Button folds
SB raises 803166 to 813166
SB is all-In.
Hero ??????

[baudib]

call, do you really think he's expecting/wanting a call?

[baudib]

what's the payout breakdown

[DarkHorse83]

1st- $3100
2nd- $1900
3rd- $1250
4th- $900

rough breakdown from memory. ..

[Penneywize]

It would be nice to know what kind of ranges our villain has been pushing, if you've seen him do this at any recent stage, but by your description of him I would assume not. Of course, I'm not sure how useful this information would be given that his stack has just doubled, and is likely to modify his play as a result.

Typically, I feel like when someone wakes up with an incredible bet in these situations, he will end up showing a powerful hand more often than not; this is compounded by the fact that he's by far and away the chip leader and has little incentive to steal - the chips he has in his stack are currently more 'valuable' than those he does not yet have.

From our perspective, ICM should not factor in too much to our decision-making, given that we are 3rd in chips and the difference between 3rd and 4th is not great.

Adding all this up, it seems as though we have to put our opponent on a rather strong range; TT+ and AQo+ seems reasonable to me. Strangely, given the weak pot odds we are receiving, our decision to call hinges greatly on whether we can put AQ or, less likely, some other worse Ace as a part of his range. If we can, it's a call, otherwise, a difficult fold.

Knowing myself, in your shoes I'd put AQ in his range and make the call.

If any experienced MTTers read this and think I'm way off / full of shit, do let me know, I'd rather be corrected than go on thinking I had it figured out right.

[drmcboy]

Yeah read is kinda lame given it's the FT. Turn the TV off. How much has been been stealing in similar spots? Shoves or raises?

But, I don't really care esp since it's SB BB. I would be stunned if he has a big PP, will be TT-, QJ/QT, Kx or Ax almost always. He knows he is ahead but fears flop doesn't want to play OOP yadda.

call.

he's by far and away the chip leader and has little incentive to steal

I hope this is not your attitude when you're the chip leader and I definitely would NOT assume other people think this way. If he doubles up anyone at the table he won't be chip leader so our definition of "far and away" is quite different. Beyond that what do you consider an incentive to steal? Even if you for some reason think he's guaranteed to get HU with this massive chip lead, more chips are good. Chips lost are worth more than chips earned is a great saying to use as an excuse to make weak tight folds but it doesn't do much else for you. It could also be used to argue for stealing more since it is true of everyone's stack so they should almost never defend.

If you find yourself in this spot, steal the table blind until they give you a reason not to. Esp in low BI events - even better low BI players, since you should be OPR'ing everyone at the FT - many of the players will be under a lot of pressure to fold due to bank roll considerations, real or imagined. Someone is going to get those chips, and you want them bad, even if they aren't quite worth the ones you already have. And don't forget that no one has figured out a way to measure fear equity, so we don't really know how much being a big getting bigger chip leader is worth.

[Penneywize]

thanks for the commentary drmc, I should probably clarify that I meant what I said strictly from an ICM perspective -- that, all else being equal, the player with the chip lead has more to lose, given the payouts, than the 4th-place player does. Though you are absolutely right that his chip lead is not as large as what I said may lead one to believe, and certainly not large enough include the reasoning I was referring to in our decision process.

And, just as I'm thinking that I'm actually way more concerned about how far off my range was on our villain - I reread the OP and see that this was a SB/BB confrontation (he was not pushing UTG as I had thought) so there is no fucking way he is only pulling this with a huge hand. Damn, sorry.

Yeah, def wide range, and you can pretty much ignore my post.

Let me ask you this drmc - do the points I made regarding our villain's expected tightness make more sense if we assume he is acting from first pos as I had assumed? And is the range of TT+, AQo+ still seem far too strong?

[KoRnholio]

[drmcboy]

Let me ask you this drmc - do the points I made regarding our villain's expected tightness make more sense if we assume he is acting from first pos as I had assumed? And is the range of TT+, AQo+ still seem far too strong?

yes because he's dying for action on his big PPs regardless. If he was UTG I would put him on something like AT+, KJ+, 22-TT.

this could be a super level with a big hand, but that would be a really amazing play and I would just tip my cap and try and spike something.

[DarkHorse83]

Yeah sorry on the reads front... he had done nothing like this before. He raised, flatted and even folded hands BvB with regularity that gave me no other impression than he was playing his cards before he doubled. So looked a massive overshove on what had been a very passive table in the main, five handed no one was open pushing even blind v blind, it was more a raise/ reshove/fold dynamic at the table. It looked very out of place but I was unsure if this 'change in gear' was down to doubling up.

PostPosted: Thu, 14 Jan 2010, 10:52pm
Yeah read is kinda lame given it's the FT. Turn the TV off. How much has been been stealing in similar spots? Shoves or raises?

But, I don't really care esp since it's SB BB. I would be stunned if he has a big PP, will be TT-, QJ/QT, Kx or Ax almost always. He knows he is ahead but fears flop doesn't want to play OOP yadda.

call.

QJ/QT, Kx ?? Can we include this in his range? Is there enough in the middle?? I felt pocket pairs featured heavily in his range. Discounted AA and KK.

Maybe 88+, AT/AJ+. The likes of KT/KQ and QJ seemed a stretch to me.

88+ may seem too tight a range but as I say he had not been getting out of line in any way shape or form and I thought he is doing this with something.

[baudib]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.496% 34.58% 06.91% 44411170 8879713.00 { QQ-88, ATs+, ATo+ }
Hand 1: 58.504% 51.59% 06.91% 66252204 8879713.00 { AcKh }

[drmcboy]

You're saying he would 3x or flat 22-77 & BW hands but shove 88? why? (note baudib posted at same time, question is for OP)

Basically given read you have to decide if he randomly decided to shove a strong range or a weak range, and I would always lean to weak just because it's more logical. If he has something like TT it's so terrible to take the re shove away from you. Esp since it sounds like based on table he could expect you to re shove a decent amount.

Shoving weaker hands prevents him from having to raise and fold to a shove or play OOP with funky stack sizes. Shoving strong only works if you have a big hand.

[baudib]

1. ask yourself what you do if you're in his shoes (with a tight player in the BB) and have A9s or KQ.
2. have you ever seen him complete or 3X in the SB with something like KQ?

you have AK with 18 BBs and a big stack is shoving into you BvB in a FT with a fairly flat payout structure, i'm not sure what the debate is all about here.

[DarkHorse83]

You're saying he would 3x or flat 22-77 & BW hands but shove 88? why? (note baudib posted at same time, question is for OP)

Basically given read you have to decide if he randomly decided to shove a strong range or a weak range, and I would always lean to weak just because it's more logical. If he has something like TT it's so terrible to take the re shove away from you. Esp since it sounds like based on table he could expect you to re shove a decent amount.

Shoving weaker hands prevents him from having to raise and fold to a shove or play OOP with funky stack sizes. Shoving strong only works if you have a big hand.

You make a good point, why would he raise 22-77 for example but shove 88+.... I really dont know why which is why i found it so tough. Makes no sense. If he had been shoving on me every second chance it was folded to him this thread would not exist. But all i can say is that i was preparing to re raise whatever raise the sb put in and suddenly i was faced with this. Hit the timebank and thought oh god what is this??

Why is he raising 22-77 and shoving 88+ in my mind.... well surely I have too many chips relative to what is the middle to be open shoving with 22-77 (ish)? In my opinion there isnt enough in the middle to be open shoving full stop but I may be very wrong.

when can i post what I did?

[baudib]

OP, go back and look at what I stoved for the range that you put him on. Notice that you are a big favorite against that range? Generally if you can put villain on a range that includes AQ AND pretty much discount KK+ this is pretty much a snap call.

[drmcboy]

I won't' restate my points again. If you disagree, it's cool.

If your open shove range with ~15BBs when there are antes is nothing you're probably missing shove spots and or open raising and putting yourself in hard spots with bad hands/stack sizes. Pick up kill everyone or find a chart you like online somewhere.

I'd wait until at least monday PM to post results, or just don't. You already know what happened and me and baudib will survive.