river ahh vs solid reg

[eragotte]

alright so i have a bit of history with this villain, he 3bets pretty light for 50nl, ive seen him do it with A10 when i open from MP and some other middle of the pack hands.

i showed a ridiculous bluff against
him earlier where someone 3bet with 4 callers i c/r turn when button bet and sb calls then open shove river n show air so who knows what he thought of that

i check the river to induce a bluff from missed draws he might have, when he shoves im not sure what to think, i think hes capable of bluffing maybbeee but why so big. maybe a7 that got counterfeited and is mad. maybe a9/77/draw with a 9 that hit trips, i dont think he really ever has 1010/AA and Im not sure bout 77...


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($58.40)
SB ($158.10)
BB ($54.55)
Hero (UTG) ($76.10)
MP ($58.95)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, K
Hero bets $2, 1 fold, Button calls $2, 1 fold, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.25) 7, 10, A (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.50, Button calls $4.50, 1 fold

Turn: ($15.25) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $9, Button calls $9

River: ($33.25) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $42.90 (All-In)

Total pot: $33.25

[minSim]

Bet more on the flop and turn and shove river yourself. Now call because all draws missed and he might think his AQ is 100% ahead of your range here. He'll have 98s a decent amount as well.

[griffey24]

If he has 89 good for him. He could even be value towning himself with AJ/AQ.. which he prob should be shoving w hen you check.
Certainly AQ at least.

calll

[eragotte]

I did call for the reasons you guys said, but Im wondering if its less likely that he has a poor hand because of the bluff earlier, hes probably overbetting river thinking ill be like omg hes bluffing me back, snap, but really he has something nutty. but good point that he might value shove aq/aj griffey

[JL]

It is very rare for a reg at these stakes to overbet shove river for value with TPGK, and it is also very rare for him to overbet the river as a bluff.

I think this is a fold, but I am very interested in hearing some more thoughts on this.

[bigspenda73]

thinking ppl at these stakes are jamming AQ/AJ here for value is crazy wishful thinking.

any comments on the turn bet size? seems quite small to me.

[badgers]

wtf, just bet turn bigger and shove river with your image

[eragotte]

ya turn is too small for sure, shuda done like 12, not sure how i fucked that up...

what calls us thats worse badgers? i guess it depends if he thinks im river shoving with air all the time or if i pick my spots... i cant see him calling aj really though....

i agree regs arent bluff shoving rivers this big too often here.. which is why im questioning the call, not a great spot to bluff... i dunno, so tricky

[eragotte]

i like the check to induce the bluff... but id rather pick off like a 25$ bluff, the ship is so strong... what do others think bout the check

[badgers]

You're in a better position to know what he thinks of you than I am, but from the information you've given he should think you're capable of shoving all of your missed draws here and there are a lot you can have.

I also think you're over-estimating the amount of the time he has a missed draw (especially if you bet the turn more since he wont call a bare FD to a larger bet). Most of his FDs are going to have at least a gutshot as well and he's probably raising them a large percentage of the time on the flop.

All of that points to this being AQ/AJ a lot, and I think he's calling a shove with them but checking behind when checked to, so I bet.

[Micro2Macro]

please make a list of the hands he will bluff this river with.

[meeloche]

to this being AQ/AJ a lot, and I think he's calling a shove with them but checking behind when checked to, so I bet.

This is important and why I would bet bet shove here and size it accordingly.

This board is perfect to triple he can put you on a lot of air. How is he gonna hero call if you don't bet?

[eragotte]

i really think he 3bets aj/aq, he has 3bet with A10 off twice... would he call with AQs/AJs maybe? ive heard people say that but dont understand the thought process...

please make a list of the hands he will bluff this river with.

i get the point, there arent that many club combos and he wouldnt call the turn with a gutshot, and 98s is probably to be a good part of the draw range that ships it here so it probably makes it a fold as played?

i dunno, this hands really hard for me to dissect especially because i know what he had and its quite surprising[/quote]

[minSim]

please make a list of the hands he will bluff this river with.

Missed clubs

eragotte, a lot of people call AJ and especially AQ ip and 3bet AT, because AT is dominated by too many better Ax.

[eragotte]

eh if i were to be raising a10 as a semi bluff id wanna raise aq for value, especially verse some aggro donk whose probably opening with like 85s (me)

[surviva316]

eh if i were to be raising a10 as a semi bluff id wanna raise aq for value, especially verse some aggro donk whose probably opening with like 85s (me)

you really can't be expecting almost anyone to be 3b'ing an UTG open with AQ for value. is he supposed to call off his stack if you 4b jam? that is ginormous spew vs an UTG range

[shakesss]

I think ur line looks quite strong in this spot. The turn bet sizing looks a bit weak but i think he will be able to anticipate a check call on the river, coz the pot is small enough.(don't know whether u were planning to make it so) So i would call or fold depending on whether he has the stones to bluff off a stack in a spot where it is likely he gets called or whether he is smart enough to recognize that u might call off in this spot and ship it with a hand with a 9 in it. I wouldn't be surprised seeing a gut shot with a 9 in it, or some flush draw with a 9 in it that peeled the flop, caught a pair so didn't raise and then shipped it on the river in a spot where it is likely that he gets called by a big ace coz it looks bluffy and a big ace is huge part of your range.

All this being said i would probably call it off coz ur getting a pretty good price on it, like 75 to 42.. nearly 2-1 so u don't need to be right so often.

[eragotte]

you really can't be expecting almost anyone to be 3b'ing an UTG open with AQ for value. is he supposed to call off his stack if you 4b jam? that is ginormous spew vs an UTG range

hmmm okay, i need to learn more about 3betting in general... i 3bet aq to an utg open against an average player sometimes if he isnt playing too tight and just fold to the 4bet unless i have a reason to believe he would do it light...

he wound up with 77 btw, dunno what he was doing flop n turn...

[IowaSkinsFan]

If you think he's going to bet river with missed draws id snap this and say you played it well.

If he's bluffing so little here you'd want to fold i would have bet the river in the first place.

[Alexos]

If you think he's going to bet river with missed draws id snap this and say you played it well.

If he's bluffing so little here you'd want to fold i would have bet the river in the first place.

/thread

[Micro2Macro]

please make a list of the hands he will bluff this river with.

Missed clubs

eragotte, a lot of people call AJ and especially AQ ip and 3bet AT, because AT is dominated by too many better Ax.

lfdo missed clubs are hands he could bluff with. Good point about AT being very unlikely to be in his range.

my intention was to have OP come up with all the combos he bluffs (i.e. the specific hands with clubs, listing them off), then the ones he value bets. Then consider his calling range on the river if we bet, decide whether value betting is +EV, and if so compare it to the EV of checking to induce a bluff. (obviously lots of assumptions to go here since even if he has 'xyz' hands in his air range on the river he may not always bluff with 100% of that range).

It's probably a better way of figuring this out than everyone just shouting out what they think they'd do. Especially when it could be +EV to both induce a bluff and value bet.

What ISF said pretty much sums it up, now just make some assumptions and do some maths.

[eragotte]

alright, thanks for the responses guys, ill work through that stuff m2m