KK, A on flop, opp overbets turn ($27)

[taipan168]

No reads on this guy other than he was 33/0 up to this point. How is this line?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 27 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t1500)
MP1 (t1650)
Hero (MP2) (t4610)
CO (t1310)
Button (t1470)
SB (t1480)
BB (t1480)

Hero's M: 153.67

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, K
2 folds, Hero bets t80, 3 folds, BB calls t60

Flop: (t170) A, 5, 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t170) 8 (2 players)
BB bets t200, Hero calls t200

River: (t570) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t400, BB calls t400

[IAM-member]

I usually play lower but fwiw.
To me villains big turn bet is repping something strong that he'd wanna checkraise flop with or just complete air(odd bluff i guess). This would seem accurate if he really is about 30/5 donk? With some air in his range calling KK is probably a good play-re-ev river. Ofc you're stack makes it easier to call the 200. Out of curiosity if you had about 1500 chips like the otherplayers how would you play this?

[taipan168]

Ofc you're stack makes it easier to call the 200. Out of curiosity if you had about 1500 chips like the otherplayers how would you play this?

Interesting point, the fact that I tripled up on the first hand definitely made it easier to call the turn bet. If I had a starting stack I would probably still call however, although it would have been closer.

Part of what led to the call was that I figured that this kind of overbet is more likely to be opp trying to push me out of the pot rather than trying to draw me in to it.

[djh860]

I lead out and bet the flop 90%

[taipan168]

I lead out and bet the flop 90%

This is one of the more interesting points in poker. Can you set out your logic for betting here - what hands we beat do you think will call and what hands that beat us will fold?

[Xenq]

I normally fire off a c-bet and shut down if it's called in this situation. I guess it's fair to say though that you'll be well ahead or well behind at that point. So by checking the flop, hands that you are beating will probably need to improve a lot to overtake you (lower pairs improved to sets, gutshot straight draw come off or some bogus runner runner 2pair hand). However, surely the scenario most of the time if you check is that they will fire off a bet on the turn, and what do you do then? You flat called there, but what's the strategy where you don't improve on the river and sensing your weakness they fire off another strong bet? I'm not good enough to figure it out, so I'd rather risk a 1/2 pot bet on the flop than 1/3 of my stack trying to call his river bluff.

[Jack Sawyer]

I would overbet the river.

[Nakamura]

As Taipan suggest the point of checking the flop is to induce your opponent to bluff. If you make a bet yourself, his calling range includes Ax and better hands, while he folds pretty much everything else.

Despite what beginners think (myself included) winning in poker isn't about winning pots, it's about extracting value from hands. If you bet here you are folding hands from which you could extract value.

[taipan168]

I would overbet the river.

Yes, in retrospect I was wondering whether my river bet was too small.

[taipan168]

However, surely the scenario most of the time if you check is that they will fire off a bet on the turn, and what do you do then? You flat called there, but what's the strategy where you don't improve on the river and sensing your weakness they fire off another strong bet?

I'd fold (assuming that I didn't spike a K of course). It's unlikely that opp will fire again on the river as a bluff after I call his turn bet. Sure there's a chance that I'm folding the best hand but only crazies would bet again on the river without something that beats me.

As an aside, this is a good example of where I can get information about opp's hand without having to bet.

[djh860]

sometimes what they are betting is very plain to see. He may have A8 and turned two pair. I don't see him folding shove the river. As you played it is also fine.