$11 27-man / bubble situation

[Extremophile]

Villian's stats was 60% vpip for the first half of the tourney. Then, he started to play tight and it decreased to 30%. He had been folding to shoves in the FT.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 11 Tournament, 400/800 Blinds 50 Ante (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t7468)
UTG (t8080)
MP (t11386)
CO (t4444)
Button (t3032)
Hero (SB) (t6090)

Hero's M: 4.06

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 9
4 folds,

Hero?

[taipan168]

Very read dependent on whether you think he'll fold. In a vacuum I would shove this almost always, however if you've shoved the last 5 times into him and he's folded I'm tempted to let this one to go mix it up.

[IAM-member]

Basically what taipan said but since your shoving range here is probably super wide consider folding something like Jx instead of 89 because 89 prolly does better against his calling range.

[Extremophile]

Thanks for the replies. He actually took a few seconds and made the call with A6s. I think I shouldn't have shoved over someone running 60% because, he probably has no idea about ICM.

[TLR]

vs tight opponents raising to 2000 is almost as effective as shoving

[taipan168]

vs tight opponents raising to 2000 is almost as effective as shoving

True, but you give aggressive opps the opportunity to shove over you when you can't possibly make the call

[Jenya]

You have here 48% against any random hand.
Eq+ 16.46%
Eq- 14.35%
So it is -EV situation.
If you are pushing here you get coinflip with money loss on the distance.

[fulksy]

You have here 48% against any random hand.
Eq+ 16.46%
Eq- 14.35%
So it is -EV situation.

you think he's calling with ATC?

[lancelott_]

shove if he`d tightened up