QQ with raise, shove and call in front ($27)

[taipan168]

Shover's stats were 20/13, callers were 18/12 (and I think he's a reg but I can't be sure). Have to fold here, right? Would you call just the first shove?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 27 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 (t1480)
MP3 (t1470)
CO (t1640)
Button (t1400)
SB (t2390)
Hero (BB) (t1500)
UTG (t1480)
UTG+1 (t700)
MP1 (t1440)

Hero's M: 50.00

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, Q
2 folds, MP1 calls t20, MP2 bets t80, MP3 raises to t1470 (All-In), 1 fold, Button calls t1400 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero ????

[danoxford]

I think you have to fold it. If you think the caller is a tight regular then he's not going to be calling AIs in the first level with 99-JJ and you're well behind here a lot more than 50% of the time in my opinion. As for whether I'd call the first shove with no other callers, it would depend on reads and how many hands I've got on the villain, but most of the time I'd be folding unless it was a weak loose maniac.

[IAM-member]

AGree with danoxford. At 27 level I guess you have to assume they have u beat.

[Nakamura]

I think with the call, you have to give the reg some credit here for a high probability of holding KK+, so I'd fold.

Without that call I'd call myself. AA or KK forms such a small part of the initial raisers range, that you can almost discount it. The AI shove is usually not AA or KK, since most people don't shove these hands over a 80 chip bet. It's more likely a hand like TT, JJ or AK (I believe the range should be weighted here). If I called and he flipped over AA or KK, I'd make a note on how he plays this for next time.

As for ICM, I reckon it says call with KK+ and fold QQ+, but having a big stack this early is probably worth a few %. I'm prepared to take a slightly -EV gamble here. Plus WIZ isn't weighting the hand range, which I think is necessary is this hand. Below I've thrown out AA in the analysis to weight it less in favour of AA or KK, and you are well ahead.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

359,583,840 games 0.437 secs 822,846,315 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.814% 40.24% 01.58% 144690252 5667888.00 { KK-TT, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 58.186% 56.61% 01.58% 203557812 5667888.00 { QQ }

[lNormajean]

given that it is probably a reg, it is 10/20 blind level i fold pretty fast and feel like lol i so shuda got stacked there

do you call if button doesnt?

[taipan168]

do you call if button doesnt?

Guess so, but I'm not that overjoyed about it considering his stats are 20/13.

[lNormajean]

as for the hand, i dont think its even close. mp2 raised 4x, mp3 shuved and button called...i mean cmon 1 of them has to have u beat.

if button folded, i would only call with a read that he was some kind of spazz. if it was 50/100 i would probably call but its not. im sure there will be better places to get ur money in later

[TLR]

Relatively easy fold, if the button does not call It is a tougher decision but I think I fold here given that the original raiser is also still involved

[lancelott_]

snapfold