POT CONTROL

[CorbinDallas]

i was talking with two different friends about this subject. i don't have the HH but here's the first hand that started the discussion.

don't have any reads or stats so let's just assume villain is your average micro/low player.

$5 daily double on FTP. blinds 20/40. hero (2850) is mp1. villain is BU with (3350).

hero has TcTh raises to 130 gets called by villain. pot is 320.

flop 9h 2c 5h. hero bets 190 villain calls. pot is 700. hero has 2530 behind.

turn is 8h. hero checks.

i asked hero why he didn't bet the turn... he said "pot control". i said.... BET.... let him call with Ah or Kh. we can always check a 4th heart or A on river but we get value from the guy chasing his 25/30% chance to hit. are we to go around checking every scary turn in the name of pot control.... especially versus the numerous calling stations you'd expect to see at micro/low?

[fjuanl]

Hero's hand is?

[caddie444]

I'm assuming hero has an overpair without the Ah or Kh?

If that's true than I prefer bet/folding this turn. If we did have the Kh or Ah a case could be made for pot controlling the turn

[CorbinDallas]

oh i'm sorry.... TcTh

[Mike.Rowe.Grinder]

hero shouldn't pot control in this spot in a tournament. 10 10 overpair is just too strong against a calling range in this spot to not keep taking it to value town.

[fjuanl]

In a field this weak you really should bet the turn because they never fold 9x and you get an extra bet from hands like bare Ah, second pair+draw. Its also hard to make a big mistake by bet/folding the turn because so few people are capable of raising your 2nd barrel with a draw. If you get raised its so often flushes, sets, 98, 76

[drmcboy]

seems fine. How often does he have the Ah/Kh and are you guys sure that call is a mistake? not saying bet/fold is bad but I don't think we're getting two more streets of value from 9x or worse and a check here may get us paid off by any PP 8x and stuff. If we bet he'll fold a ton of hands that are drawing super thin.

[CorbinDallas]

i'm inclined to agree with fjuanl. i think we lose alot of value from Ah9x, Ah3x, Ah4x. Ah5x, Ah2x... 6h6x, 7h7x, Jh9x, Qh9x, and Kh9x.... 9x6h, 9x7h.

[drmcboy]

he doesn't call river with those hands?

How much are planning on betting?

have you run those numbers vs TT?

[CorbinDallas]

i c what you are getting at. i wonder if pot control is more appropriate if this hand is in ring.

in a tourney with lots of fish i think we try to get as much value as possible anytime our opponent wants to call when they are behind.

it appears though that the quandry is what happens if he calls our 375ish turn bet. then river is another scare card for our hand. we'd have to check and face a tough river decision if our opponent bets....

BUT.... the majority of the players we face aren't going to put us in a tuff spot on the river. i think our opponents (at this level) will give us "delayed" pot control by checking behind on a blank river for their hand. what are scare cards for 1 player is often scare cards for both players.

[drmcboy]

if he has most of those hands and you bet PS or less (certainly HPS, he almost can't be a 3/1 dog) you don't want him to call because he has to have some implied odds in addition to getting the right price right now with most of them. If he has no implied odds you'd be saying you are c/f all rivers when he bets? I'm not seeing how you are getting him to make a mistake with the hands you listed. We want people to make mistakes, you are defining "value" in some way I don't understand.

And all this discussion assumes we're ahead. Sometimes we're leading out on the turn drawing dead or to a heart or a board pair/T, and to add to the fun we have no idea what or whether we need to hit.

Again, b/f is fine but I really don't see how it's clear better/worse than c/eval. Since we're assume he sucks anyway he may do something awesome like bet 100 with a straight/low flush.

[CorbinDallas]

i'm not saying its clear cut either. my friend was saying it was clear cut 100% check.... which is why i posted the debate here.

[drmcboy]

it would be neat to put that in the OP. It's weird since I guess when you said
"BET" what you meant was "BET... or check either one is good". Then I guess you also meant to list all the things that made checking good but ran out of time before you had to click SUBMIT.

If you're sure he'll play straight forward and 'good' betting is probably better, but in my experience micro players do neither. Maybe they won't semi bluff, but I think a lot of micro players would raise Ac9c on the turn to prevent you from hitting your overs/spring the trap on your 66.

We're left playing our hand strength, which is unclear on this board and often even more unclear on river.

[fjuanl]

I'm pretty confident that if the river bricks we can 3barrel and get looked up by all kinds of horrible stuff vs $5 randoms. After another glance at the board though I realized its pretty hard to think of rivers that are actually complete bricks. I'm paranoid about giving up the lead and deciding to check/guess on 2 streets but I guess the chances of you getting owned are pretty unlikely. If only that turn was the 2s or 4d...

[drmcboy]

yeah 2/3/4/5 non heart (or not?) really the only good rivers, not just for us but for 9x.