$3 sng PartyPoker, KTs against shortstack

[vaaanha]

Hi guys. I'm not sure if I'm counting ICM correctly. But in this situation - would you shove or fold?

Party Poker $3 USD Buy-in No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds - 4 players -
Hero ( BTN ): t1400 M = 4.67
blade_235 ( SB ): t11270 M = 37.57
OnkelHasi ( BB ): t1110 M = 3.70
molodalen ( CO ): t6220 M = 20.73

Pre Flop: (t0) Hero is BTN with KdTd
1 fold, Hero bets t1400 all in, 1 fold, OnkelHasi calls t910 all in

Flop: (t1820) 9hTsQs(2 players - 2 are all in)

Turn: (t1820) As(2 players - 2 are all in)

River: (t1820) Jc(2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: t1820

Hero shows KdTd(a straight, Ten to Ace)

OnkelHasi shows Kh8s (a straight, Ten to Ace)
Hero wins t290
OnkelHasi wins t1160
Hero wins t670
(Rake: t-300)

So is here shove correct? If I fold now & also deepstack on my left hand, shortstack can easy shove me next round & after that I'll be the worst on the table.

I give him(shortstack) calling range 66+ a AJo+, KQ - is it OK?

Against his range I'm 36/63 underdog

So here comes the math...

He holds calling hand in 8% of time.

Pf(0,92)*Ef(1,02) = 0,94$
---
Pcl(0,08)*Ecl(0,17)*0,63 = 0,02$
Pcw(0,08)*Ecw(1,57)*0,36 = 0,05$
=========
1,01$

My equity before action is 0,84$. I don't take into account calling by that deepstack. I think he can call maybe QQ+. He's no interested in throwing his stack away.

I shoved....

& was called by K8...(55/45)

So if I take K8 as least possible hand to call - he holds calling hand in 20,6% of situations. Then...

Pf(0,794)*(1,02) = 0,81$
---
Pcl(0,206)*(0,17)*0,55= 0,02$
Pcw(0,206)*(1,57)*0,45=0,15$

========
0,98$

I'm not really sure with my math. Logically I suppose that it's (for me) more profitable being called by smaller range of hands because it happens less often - but it looks it's lil different.

Am I counting that ICM right? Let me know.

[taipan168]

Hi and welcome to FTR, it's good to have you here.

I'll check the ICM maths later, but without even looking at it I strongly suspect your shove is correct.

[taipan168]

Interesting, I ran this in SNG Wiz and it actually doesn't matter how wide or loose the short stack in the BB calls, it's all about the SB's calling range (since if the SB calls, the BB would be crazy to call without a monster hand).

SB needs to call no looser than 18% of hands (33+, A5o, A7o+, A2s+, KQo, KTs+) to make this a good shove.

[vaaanha]

Yep. I also used SNGwiz & it showed me an exclamation mark next to this hand. But I thought that range of SB is pretty tight - he's now in very safe position & if he call for example A8o, he can be very easily dominated. I thought he can call only QQ+ & maybe AKs in this situation.

So the result is that it's pretty unimportant what shortstack's range is? What only matters is the SB's calling range?

[fulksy]

I thought he can call only QQ+ & maybe AKs in this situation.

i think its important to remember that at $3 sngs, what opponents should call with and what they will call with is very very different, most players at these stakes are very bad and have no clue about ICM or what EV is. so make sure you take that into account when your trying to figure out opponents range.

[taipan168]

I thought he can call only QQ+ & maybe AKs in this situation.

i think its important to remember that at $3 sngs, what opponents should call with and what they will call with is very very different, most players at these stakes are very bad and have no clue about ICM or what EV is. so make sure you take that into account when your trying to figure out opponents range.

The other thing to remember is that SB has a huge stack, so he can afford to call you, lose and still be the biggest stack by a long way. QQ+, AKs is WAY too tight a range for SB. If I had to take a guess I would say that the 18% range that I posted above is probably about right if not a little tight. This is why I was surprised what a marginal spot this was since in a game I would probably shove this pretty fast.

[TLR]

I dont think the push is bad here