AK preflop decision against winning multitabler ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp is a winning multitabler, I have about 1000 hands on him and stats are 17/9. I suspect his UTG open range is something like 99+, AQ+ or 88+, AJ+. No idea what a 7x BB raise means. What's your preflop move?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 27 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 (t1550)
MP1 (t2235)
Hero (MP2) (t1515)
CO (t2295)
Button (t1005)
SB (t2375)
BB (t475)
UTG (t2050)

Hero's M: 20.20

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, A
UTG bets t350, 2 folds, Hero ????

[Fielmann]

7xbb raise could just mean that he didn't realize what the blind level was at this table. (It's happened to me once or twice.)
It also makes KK+ slightly less likely.

As for what do, I really don't know.

- Shoving sucks because it is not profitable or only marginally profitable at best. (That's even when we consider it less likely to be against KK+.)
- Calling sucks because we will too often just fold to his flop c-bet.
- Folding sucks because we have AK.

I usually shove here, thinking "Why wasn't I simply dealt J7o as always?".

[TLR]

I would probably shove here, although I can see a call in position

7BB is wierd, its either a misclick or he has some read on the blinds that they tend to call loosly

[baudib]

He has JJ, flip and win or fire up another I guess.

[Alpine021]

It could have been a mis-click but I know a lot of really tight players that play hands like 10s or JJ (as mentioned above) like this.

The pure line of argument seems to be that he doesn't want to standard raise and get 3 or 4 callers OOP and see overcards hit so if he gets a call he wants to be heads up.

Could be wrong but I know people who do this. They also sometimes completely overbet AK on the button if there have been loads of limpers. Each to their own I guess.

As played I really can't put him on aces or kings as he is effectively blowing the whole table out of the water. Maybe top range would be queens.

I think I'd shove. An extra incentive along with possible FE is that if you do flip and win you get rid of a strong player which is always a bonus.

[taipan168]

Interesting, I also posted this on 2+2 because they might know the player in question (ChetDiMay) and the consensus was that fold was the best choice, because opp was very unlikely to be making this kind of raise with anything we beat.

[Alpine021]

It is interesting. If he has something like aces or kings maybe he just wants some donk to wake up with a lower pair that can't fold it. I can understand it from a certain point of view but I'd rather keep good aces in. What would you have done if he'd have gone to 4x?

I sometimes play 90 man turbo knockout SnGs on full tilt. You start with 3,000 and if I get aces really early I'll just shove. If everyone folds then I wouldn't make much money anyway as early levels but the amount of times people snap call me with 1010 - KK. Maybe on some level it's similar logic.

[Alpine021]

Hey Taipan,

Was just checkin the responses on 2+2 when I saw this reply:

"I agree w/ Juan/Pompey that his 9man stats prove he is not good, he is average at best. I don't understand how total profit is important here tbh. But it all doesn't matter anyway."

What exactly does he mean by that? What are "good" and "bad" stats?

[taipan168]

Hey Taipan,

Was just checkin the responses on 2+2 when I saw this reply:

"I agree w/ Juan/Pompey that his 9man stats prove he is not good, he is average at best. I don't understand how total profit is important here tbh. But it all doesn't matter anyway."

What exactly does he mean by that? What are "good" and "bad" stats?

I think they're referring to the fact that this player has about a 2% ROI at 9-man tourneys even though he may be up tens of thousands overall.

[Alpine021]

Ah without thinking I thought they meant PT3 stats!

Hey - it was early this morning, lol.

[Nakamura]

Against a good player, I tend to muck here as we won't be ahead of their range enough to stack. Against a random or a loose player, I tend to push in these spots as they'll often pitch up with weaker aces or some other silly hand.

Taipan, would you call a 150 bet or still muck it? I'd probably still muck it, but it's always good to get a fresh perspective.

[taipan168]

Taipan, would you call a 150 bet or still muck it? I'd probably still muck it, but it's always good to get a fresh perspective.

I'd almost certainly just flat a 150 bet but play carefully postflop (ie. I'd prefer an A high flop to a K high one).

[Numbr2intheWorld]

folding is real bad here. If you strongly believe your pre range i think you definitely should flat. I think you can play pretty straightforward too, maybe bet flops when checked to if the board runs out 876 or something like that.