Rivered top two facing overbet vs tag.

[Ravageur]

Maybe I'm trying to lvl myself into folds these days since I'm running bad, but I think this hand seemed really close at the time and now in retrospect I think it's a fold. Tell me different!

Villain is aggro and has been destroying me winning flips and he flopped nut straight vs my top set just a few moments ago for another buyin. He's 21/18/3.8 AF and seems to double barrel lots but i'm not too sure about 3-barrelling light. I think I'm perceived as a station especially because I'm been losing to him so I can't imagine he expect me to fold this often, but his overbet really confused me and I felt like it polarized his range to pure air and JJ/AA/K10.

Boss Media (IPN) No-Limit Hold'em, €4.00 BB (4 handed) - BossMedia Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (€953)
Hero (Button) (€435.20)
SB (€51.20)
BB (€419)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, A
UTG bets €14, Hero calls €14, 2 folds

Flop: (€34) A, 2, J (2 players)
UTG bets €25.50, Hero calls €25.50

Turn: (€85) 2 (2 players)
UTG bets €63.75, Hero calls €63.75

River: (€212.50) Q (2 players)
UTG bets €212.50, Hero fak

[griffey24]

I would definitely call this. He could have AJ here, he could even have AK here hoping that you think you're chopping with a lot of aces and call.. and he might just be trying to take you off a chop himself.

He probably also expects you to have made some noise with AJ already, so from his perspective the only thing that card changes is that it improves your AQ. So he'd probably take the same action on some random rag 5.

[Ravageur]

I don't really see people try to take people off chops in spots like this (probably not as much as they should) so I really don't think we'll ever see stuff like AK/A10 because he'd be afraid I have AQ, especially when he makes such a big bet.

[griffey24]

Maybe I'm over thinking this, or on a different level here. But the way I see it, or how he could be thinking is. You're on the button , 4 handed, so you can have a lot of aces.

You might have raised AJ already given the board, so he can discount that. You might have raised AQ on the flop even, or often 3bet pre, so he can discount that. You would have 3bet AK pre, so he can discount that. So from his perspective, you have lots of aces, never AK, rarely AJ and rarely AQ. So I don't see why he shouldn't be betting most of his aces like this on the river, since he has nothing to be afraid of. He either gets called and chops most of the time, or you fold. FD also missed, so maybe he even thinks you hero call worse on river (Jx or Qxhh).

I don't know.. all I know is with the way I play, if I have A8,AJ,AK here I'm betting it the same as him.

[pocketfours]

I'm leaning towards call. I think he might do this with AJ/AK and this can be a bluff as well. I also think seeing what he has should tell you something about his game.

[Ravageur]

hmm...i completely agree with your thinking griffey i just don't think as many people put it in practice like you do. That being said my hand was so underrepped so i did call.

[pocketfours]

I really don't understand why you want to pot the river with A8 griffey?

[griffey24]

I really don't understand why you want to pot the river with A8 griffey?

Cause I think I'm almost never behind, and I think I'm rarely getting called by worse. So most of the value of our hand is the fact that our range on this particular board is probably stronger than his, as the hand went down, so I'd rather just use our strong range to take him off the chop.

Not really sure how much value A8 has otherwise here. Bet $100.. get called..chop.. sweet. If we bet big here with A8 and get called it also definitely helps our action the times we actually have AJ,AQ,AK here.

If we have a read that villain might be more likely to call Jx,Qx if we bet $100.. well thats another story. There's definitely value in that then.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

I'm not sure why you think he couldnt have Ax. This is just like a fistpump call.

[grindinginnj]

I think you have to call. The only hands your afraid of are AA,JJ. Like grif said AK,AJ big part of his range. I call 100%..

[meeloche]

I'm leaning towards call. I think he might do this with AJ/AK and this can be a bluff as well. I also think seeing what he has should tell you something about his game.

+1

[Ravageur]

geez, I guess for me it just came down to the fact that I felt like the size of his bet was pure value, and I really don't think he's confidently value betting this river with Ax ever. I mean do you guys often see people POT the river which is out of character for him (I should've mentioned I've never seen villain do this; he's usually a 2/3, 3/4 type player) with AK or Ax in this spot? Seems like he's turn AK/Ax into a bluffcatcher on this river. I also think we're not putting enough emphasis on the fact he just stacked me on this table and another table so he should expect me to be wanting to get unstuck so I think this is never air either.

Meh I dunno I just don't think this is a fistpump. I think we beat 1 hand, AJ which I suppose is more likely than the rest of his range: AA/JJ/22/A2s.

Anyway, thanks for the input guys.

[pocketfours]

I really don't understand why you want to pot the river with A8 griffey?

Cause I think I'm almost never behind, and I think I'm rarely getting called by worse. So most of the value of our hand is the fact that our range on this particular board is probably stronger than his, as the hand went down, so I'd rather just use our strong range to take him off the chop.

Not really sure how much value A8 has otherwise here. Bet $100.. get called..chop.. sweet. If we bet big here with A8 and get called it also definitely helps our action the times we actually have AJ,AQ,AK here.

If we have a read that villain might be more likely to call Jx,Qx if we bet $100.. well thats another story. There's definitely value in that then.

And up it goes if you know what I'm talking about. I like it griffey!

[IowaSkinsFan]

Why not just fold turn if you want to fold the river?

I'd call though, I think if he can have AJ as much as any other nut hand its a call.

[Alexos]

Pretty crazy to think he's doing this with Ax. But given our range looks pretty damn weak here and he can have AJ, possibly AK, I'd call as well. I just think he's bluffin us a decent amount here....

[Ravageur]

ISF, I call the turn because I don't expect him to pot the river and I think if he bet smaller or if he checks i'm always good obviously and he can double barrel FDs and worse Ax that he will now c/call with and I can safely value bet him with my underrepped strong hand.