9handed, risk half stack w/ AKs?

[liqourmaster]

Hi. I got 1400, loose aggressive running 43/14 (14 hands) goes AI w/ 710 remaining.
I limp b/c I generally dont like playing big pots early game, especially 9 handed. loose dude goes AI for 700, I know he's got dirt b/c guys like him like to panic early, double up fast, etc. I see it all too often.

The question is... do I call his AI for 1/2 my stack? At best I'd be ~70%, often times ~40-60%. Worst case scenario I'm <10%. I wouldnt be crippled if I lost but I wouldnt be comfortable within 10-12 minutes playing my tight style. 10-12 minutes at these stakes usually ~6-7 players still. Whereas if I won, I'd be sitting @ 2200, which I feel is not that far from 1400, especially so early into the game, although it'd allow me to sit comfortably until bb=120ish.

I tweaked sngwiz so that I was bb and one guy limps 100% and for sure wont call me if I push after CO pushes (limper will only call AA). sngwiz under ICM model says I should go for it w/ 88+, AQ, AJs... but I think it's a bad idea... My calling range here would be more like JJ+ cuz I want to be 70% or better a good majority of the time to avoid variance.

what do you guys think?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 33 Tournament, 20/40 Blinds (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FTR

MP1 (t2165)
MP2 (t1845)
MP3 (t1455)
CO (t710)
Button (t1385)
SB (t1350)
BB (t1485)
UTG (t1650)
Hero (UTG+1) (t1455)

Hero's M: 24.25

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Ac, Kc
1 fold, Hero calls t40, 3 folds, CO bets t710 (All-In), 4 folds

Total pot: t140

[Fielmann]

Don't openlimp. Especially not with a strong hand like AK. Make it at least 120 to go.
As played, call his all-in.

I don't have time to go into details as to why you should do it. Read Harrington on Hold 'Em vol. 1.

[taipan168]

I agree, don't open limp a strong hand like AKs. With the fourth strongest starting hand in poker, why are you afraid of playing a big pot?

As played, I can't hit the call button fast enough, particularly against a player as loose as you describe. By your own calculations, in the vast majority of times the worst you'll be is a 60% favourite, so what's the problem here?

The way to avoid variance is to get your chips in good not by playing scared, and this is a very good spot.

[djh860]

I think its best to consider your table. If it was soft I would be more likely to gamble early. My thinking might be "the blinds are low the table is soft I can chip up"
That said its very hard for me not to call "shorty shoves" with solid hands that crush his range. The math makes this an insta call but I tend to think my play is more powerful than the math. I win many pots with AIR and position during the course of a game. Stabbing ,stealing, sensing fear are all big parts of my game. Coin flips are not. So I pause and consider this call. I don't like to be all in early either but I call this a very high percentage of the time. I think people need to force themselves to keep their calling range wide enough to include AK. I understand its different but on a DoN post one player wanted to fold KK on the bubble. My thinking was if your range is AA you need to quit poker.

[RoundThemUPjoe]

alright so maybe your numbers say you are running loose aggressive but by reading your post I would say you are probably playing tight passive. Just because you are playing a bunch of small pots does not make you loose or aggresssive it just means your in some small pots.

I agree with not playing big pots if it can be avoided early but I'm not going to pass up a spot early to double up or triple up with a top 5 hand. And yes sometimes you will end up being against AA or KK and be in trouble but most of the time you are going to be a huge favorite and getting your chips in with the best of it should be your goal at any stage.

DJ brings up a great point about playing your table. You need to be picking on these guys who are pushing with junk that you know with AK you are going to be ahead of. And yes 33% of the time you will loose big deal. Knowing that you are going to win the other 70% or better should be in the front of your mind making these calls easier. good luck at the tables

[danoxford]

I think he means villain is LAG although I think the same applies to him.

Raise PF but as played you crush most of his range and its an easy call for me.

[liqourmaster]

sweet. thx for replies.
yea I meant villain is LAG, not me. I'm usually tight-passive early sng.

[taipan168]

I'm usually tight-passive early sng.

You should be tight/aggressive. If you're playing tight enough early, you'll be happy to raise most hands that you're playing.

[liqourmaster]

I'm usually tight-passive early sng.

You should be tight/aggressive. If you're playing tight enough early, you'll be happy to raise most hands that you're playing.

noted

[imuck]

As everyone else had said, don't openlimp. In this situation, you should call the all-in

[pomkin23]

in my opinion ak always loses when there is more than 2 people in the pot i usually bet enough so i go heads up with some one on the hand

[SMRZ]

AA and KK are great for open limps.

AK is not.

[taipan168]

AA and KK can very occasionally be open limped when there is a known very aggressive player in front, but 95%+ of the time you should be looking to raise them.

[lolzzz_321]

Agree with Taipan for the most part.

Constructed this range and you are looking in pretty good shape.

100,000 iterations from free Poker Odds-Calculator at PokerRanges.com:

Hero's hand: A K
Range: A2+, KJ+, QJ, 22-QQ, KcAc, KdAd, KhAh, KsAs, QcAc, QdAd, QhAh, QsAs, JcAc, JdAd, JhAh, JsAs, TcAc, TdAd, ThAh, TsAs, 9cAc, 9dAd, 9hAh, 9sAs, 8cAc, 8dAd, 8hAh, 8sAs, 7cAc, 7dAd, 7hAh, 7sAs, 6cAc, 6dAd, 6hAh, 6sAs, 5cAc, 5dAd, 5hAh, 5sAs, 4cAc, 4dAd, 4hAh, 4sAs, 3cAc, 3dAd, 3hAh, 3sAs, 2cAc, 2dAd, 2hAh, 2sAs, QcKc, QdKd, QhKh, QsKs, JcKc, JdKd, JhKh, JsKs, TcKc, TdKd, ThKh, TsKs, 9cKc, 9dKd, 9hKh, 9sKs, JcQc, JdQd, JhQh, JsQs, TcQc, TdQd, ThQh, TsQs, TcJc, TdJd, ThJh, TsJs, 9cTc, 9dTd, 9hTh, 9sTs, 8c9c, 8d9d, 8h9h, 8s9s, 7c8c, 7d8d, 7h8h, 7s8s, 5c6c, 5d6d, 5h6h, 5s6s

Overall Odds:
Win: 62.7%
Tie: 5.4%
Lose: 31.9%

[Uncster]

Hi. I got 1400, loose aggressive running 43/14 (14 hands) goes AI w/ 710 remaining.
I limp b/c I generally dont like playing big pots early game, especially 9 handed.

I'll be shouted down but if you don't like playing big pots early, fold.

Why flip for half your stack if you believe that you are a good post-flop player?

If he is bluffing all-in for level one blinds, you'll have his cash by the end of the game.

[baudib]

Consider yourself shouted down.

The most annoying cliche in poker is that "AK is a coinflip." It is not. We are well ahead of villain's range in this spot.

[shady24]

tried to delete!

[shady24]

Consider yourself shouted down.

The most annoying cliche in poker is that "AK is a coinflip." It is not. We are well ahead of villain's range in this spot.

This!