50 FO late i have pair & history

[drmcboy]

limper is 27/0 15 hands

SB 47/33 15 hands

BB (tourney chip leader) is 23/23 43 hands. He also has an iron man medal thing.

14 left. Two hands before this, the CO in this hand flatted an LP raise when he was the SB. I shipped and they BOTH time banked and folded. If not for that I would just jam but do I get called too wide now? Any merit to a limp?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3000/6000 Blinds 750 Ante (7 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG (t138135)
MP1 (t162107)
MP2 (t35584)
CO (t88757)
Hero (Button) (t107664)
SB (t315539)
BB (t443991)

Hero's M: 7.56

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4, 4
3 folds, CO calls t6000, Hero ?

[baudib]

If you limp I think you get jammed on a lot; CO probably has garbage so maybe a small raise is in order?

[CorbinDallas]

tuff spot. yes you probably get called much wider than you'd like... QJ... KT... A8. a small raise (12k or 15k) to isolate against the CO could easily be viewed as weak if BB is paying attention which he probably is. limping behind is also weak but it saves us chips if one of the blinds ships it in. i would lean towards limping rather than raising or shipping.

[fjuanl]

I'd just jam again. This isn't the stage of the tournament where people will limp and then spite call all-in with A8s. The history all points toward CO being a weak/passive fish who just wants to see flops.

I don't like raising 3-4x because its really a hard hand to play postflop with these stacks. I don't like limping behind either because even if you see a flop you can't really do much other than stab at occasional dry boards where you can't rep much. BB will probably pound on you a lot too (preflop) especially if SB folds.

Other small arguments for shoving:
- FTP has a more top heavy payout structure than Stars
- FTP has bigger antes at this stage than Stars

[Numbr2intheWorld]

hmmm i think you could go either way.

[Penneywize]

Alright. I get that we don't want to simply raise to 4 bb or something here, because when we get squeezed we probably have to fold and have thus lost more than we would have with a limp, not to mention that if we get called we are in no-man's land on the flop when we don't trip up and now have a much larger pot to deal with.

I also get that we're not too worried about the CO given he's just limping in late position, and has VPIP 3 of 15 times without raising.

I also get that we're late in the tournament and have an M of 7.6, and our push-fold charts are probably telling us to put it in (correct if wrong / doesn't apply / whatev).

So, all that being said. Can we not fold here?

A few things:

I don't get how CO gets by playing as passively as he is, and making it to the final 14 in a 50-FO is not particularly easy. Sure he could be a donk who can afford to piss away money on poker tournaments, and this could be the one time he lucks out and makes it really far in one. Or he may be a micro-stakes player who won a token or something, whatever.

Can we really be that certain about the quality or style of play of the CO based on this 15-hand sample...? I mean, I'm sure we've all gone 27/0 over 15 hands many times over before, so it's not unlikely that this stat is not representative of his actual long term play.

His M is lower than yours - 6.23 if I still know how to work a calculator these days - so where is the argument for a limp on his part? Why limp when you're going to get shoved behind so often at this stage of a tournament? Can he not be doing this with a real hand - maybe making a bad, or overly sneaky play? If he wakes up with QQ+ here what does he do?

Anyhow. I assume by the wording of your OP that the CO was, as suspected, a nonfactor, and I'm probably just reading into this too much. I should mention that I found myself in a very, very similar situation recently - late in a FO, ~20 or so left, woke up with a small PP in late position, and CO limps in. I jammed, fold fold, he flips KK.

So, forgive me if I've engaged in a little Gambler's Fallacy - but I was wondering if a fold would be justifiable in this spot.

[Penneywize]

Either this thread needs more love or our poor MTT forum needs more activity - I'm not sure which

[mcatdog]

I think this is a profitable jam against anyone who you have ever seen open limp before. The CO isn't going to call you that light because it's his whole stack, and the blinds won't get a hand often enough to even worry about.