200nl - river sizing?

[Micro2Macro]

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($246.40)
Hero ($203)
MP1 ($283.35)
MP2 ($205.45)
CO ($209.30)
BTN ($94)
SB ($201)
BB ($232.65)

Pre-Flop: ($3, 8 players) Hero is UTG+1
1 fold, Hero raises to $6, 5 folds, BB calls $4

Flop: ($13, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8, BB calls $8

Turn: ($29, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $20, BB calls $20

River: ($69, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero ($169)?


villain is 16/13 decent winning reg. we don't have any notable history. my image is clean/in line for the most part (I think?).

plan is to fire any Q/K/8/4/J(maybe?) on the river. I feel as if its mandatory since he isn't folding the turn a ton of the time but we have suckout equity + implied odds and this also balances nicely for when I double barrel a real hand on boards like this.

thoughts on line/river sizing/(check?) etc..

[Jason]

Tough spot. I think that flop hits a reasonable part of your villain's range and although it's not the worst board to cbet on, it's not the best either. Maybe he's getting stubborn with an ace high with a str8 draw, pocket pair, or some other suited connector that gave him a draw or a piece. As played, $50 seems about right if we're going to stick with our plan.

But, don't be surprised if he raises you or shows up with something stronger like an overpair, two pair, or better because it should be a little disconcerting that a decent winning reg calls your UTG+1 PFR OOP and won't go away to this point on a rainbow board.

[Deanglow]

100% opponent dependent. A lot matters on what he thinks of you. Just fire anything from $48-200

[Dex]

If that's how you view your image and how you think he views you then take your time and overbet $84 or something.

[daven]

if i'm gonna do it here, then it's gonna be $55. I see him folding TT/JJ a bunch and grumbling about rigged rivers. But, depending on your image and his tendencies, then i see him calling/raising here too. Like, checking 99 on a K river makes perfect sense...

[badgers]

I'd rather bet an amount that can rep AK/AA like $44 than overbet shove, especially since villain can have loads of sets in his range. I think we fold out 88/tt/jj/qq enough to make a bet good.