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 re-steal MATH EV, please check
this is a rather simplified example of a common re-steal situation. i'm more interested if i did the math correctly rather than if villains assumed action is accurate. once i get the math confirmed, we can debate villains steal % and calling % based on his image and stack size. then we can replug the numbers based on different villains, hands, etc.
blinds 1000/2000 antes 200 4800 in the pot.
CO Villain raises 2.5x and has 46k. you have T8s on the BB with 36k. CO Villain has PFR of 15%. you shove.
in this example... villain is calling with top 5%.
let's assume he's gonna steal with hands outside his normal range sometimes so instead of getting called 1/3 times, let's say we get called 1/4 times. (this may be way off but let me go with it for this example and we can debate this after as it shouldn't change the basic equation.)
blinds/antes= 4800
villains raise= 5000
POT= 9800
we shove 34000
3 out of 4 times villain folds we win 9800x3=29400 (should this number be the amount of chips added to our stack OR the total amount of chips we win INCLUDING our shoved stack.... 43800 ????)
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.677% 69.41% 00.27% 309003020 1196884.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 30.323% 30.05% 00.27% 133802252 1196884.00 { T8s }
when we get called:
blinds/antes= 4800
villains raise= 5000
our shove= 34000
villains call= 29000
total= 72800
we lose 70%= -50960
we win 30%= +21840
villain folds we win= 29400 chips
villain calls we win= 21840 chips
TOTAL won= 51240 chips
villain calls= -50960 chips
TOTAL= +280 chips. (obviously, this number is much higher if i should use the above red method. can someone confirm or correct me here?)
couldn't something like this be made into a resteal EV chart... plug in the blinds, villains numbers (reads, estimated calling %) chips stacks and presto?
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Originally Posted by fjuanl
