overbet bluffing vs supernit 50nl

[rpm]

villain is 5/3 over 150. i wouldnt often bother tangling with this guy except when i steal his blinds every single orbit, but i felt he's just so exploitable and wanted to play a pot. flop i bet because i wanted to fold JJ and AK (or TT if he is limping AK and raising TT+ or something) he may even call with all of TT+,AK (his range at its widest) or whatever. really good turn card for me i thought because its so hard for him to have a queen. most people this nitty dont open AQs. sample size may be too small to draw such conclusions, i don't know. so say he calls the flop with only QQ+, thats 9 combined combos of AA and KK, and one of QQ. i assume someone this conservative and nitty doesnt make hero calls with AA or KK on the river. this is not standard for me but it seemed like a fun spot, if not one which might earn me a "3barrel bluffs air when checked to" note from some of the players. villain has to fold 21/(21+17.25) = 54% of the time on the river. thoughts?

weaktight | Hand Poll | 9As - $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem

[rpm]

ps i prefer more on the turn now i look at it. because we're setting it up to bluff the river and assuming that any non K or A river is +EV to bluff, i'd prefer the pot to have been bigger. turn bet was intended to be what he'd expect me to do with a Q, if he's one to try to analyse betsizes psychologically.

[badgers]

It looks like the converter has messed up the pf action... You're calling an MP raise in the CO or something right? I really don't like that, trying to move a nit off a strong hand when you don't know how good he is is usually bad.

The problem throughout this hand is that until you've established yourself as a reg/ unless you know he's a reg, he's gonna give you absolutely no credit whatsoever. Because of that I don't think any street is good, with the possible exception of a flop bet because he's probably c/fing AK a lot here.

[Micro2Macro]

wtf fold pre you are oop and severely dominated plus he has a strong range so you can't really make any moves postflop without getting looked up.

how the f is the button checking before you bet also.

[aka_red]

you fucked this hand up royally. flop bet is fine but you should consider checking it back and calling turns. the turn bet is pretty atrocious. i really don't understand what you are trying to get a fold from. he might fold an ax chop but that doesn't really do a ton for you compared to value owning yourself against 77+,7x and qx. that being said. hes clearly got a hand and your repping a narrow range 7x,qx. so the river is a really bad card for you because it kills combos of your 7x hand and if he didnt think you had a q or has one himself he is never folding. so if you are gonna bet here you have to make him want to fold the chop [88-jj or double floated ax] as your never folding out a qx or better, so if your gonna bet here 21 is not going to cut it. you are gonna have to bet like 27 here.

[rpm]

i've messed up the hand in conversion. i'm 100% i was in position for this hand. hold up.

[rpm]

here is the actual hand as played:
weaktight | Hand | 9As - $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem

@ badgers, you're right. as i mentioned, normally i wouldnt even bother with this guy because he's got such a tight range. but i did in this hand, so once i saw the flop i wasn't going to open fold because the preflop call was -EV.

@ zilla, on the turn i am trying to represent a queen, which i feel he can hardly ever have, and build a pot to steal on the river (rather than necessarily taking it on the turn). a 5/3 is NEVER opening 77 except maybe on the button imo so i'm not worrying about that hand. and he may not even be opening AQ. if he is, thats 6 possible combos and i think he's betting the flop for value so much of the time. and its still outweighed by AA,KK,AK (which i'm assuming he checks on the flop as well, if he checks AQ for tptk) the rest of his range (anything thats not a queen) i think is making a hero call vs my line. one which someone so straightforward isnt going to make over 3 streets once the queen pairs. i agree the river is almost the worst bluffing card in the deck because i'm now repping so thin but what else can a straightforward villain think i have but 7x or Qx here without reads? it must look really hard for me to be 3barrel bluffing this board in villain's opinion. so if his range going to the river is:
AA(3)
KK(6)
QQ(1)
AK(12)
AQ(6)
JJ(6)

i was assuming, perhaps without sufficient reads, that he folds AA, KK, AK, JJ, or 27 combinations out of 34 (i doubt AQ is even in his opening range). even if he calls with AA and KK 100%, thats 16 combos he calls with and 18 he folds. still +EV based on my betsizing right? i made the play based on the assumption that he has AA and KK a huge amount of the time and is being pretty brave calling 3 barrels with it, even after the 7 on the river.

i'm not saying i'm right, or trying to "rebut" your responses. you guys are all far better at poker than i'll probably ever be. i'm just displaying my though process in the hand in the hope of getting told how to think better.

[aka_red]

...
you called a 5/3 utg+1 open with A9s?

[Sprayed]

Against a super nit, you should be playing very few hands when they raise. You aren't going to "out play" these guys when they have position on you and they raise from UTG +1.