200nl CO vs SB, river 2 pair

[KillsAids]

CO steals 32%, 18/14, cbets 76% barrels 28%.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($358.65)
UTG ($601.25)
UTG+1 ($400)
MP1 ($84.05)
MP2 ($460.60)
MP3 ($440)
CO ($242.30)
Button ($200)
Hero (SB) ($397.70)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 9
5 folds, CO bets $9.70, 1 fold, Hero calls $8.70, 1 fold

Flop: ($24.10) 6, 9, 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $14, Hero calls $14

Turn: ($52.10) K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($52.10) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $32, CO raises to $125

Hero has no clue wtf is going on

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

fold, he has 88/T7

[Bear Bones]

fold, he has 88/T7

Villain is 18/14 and almost never has T7 here. He open bet 4.5x pre and bet the checked flop. You represent nothing. What're your stats? how does villain see you? Any history? I think villains range has to include missed hollywoods and one pair hands.

[gametight]

Im calling/ taking a note

Your range looks weak and he could be raising river for value with worse.

[caddie444]

This is a standard fold pre, what do you do if he barrels turn? As played I'm still folding

[Micro2Macro]

This is a standard fold pre, what do you do if he barrels turn? As played I'm still folding

no

obv fold turn if he barrels

aids i'd bet river bigger

also wtf @ pre sizing is that his standard?

river raise is weird..what other info do you have on him?

[Deanglow]

3bet or fold pre, and obviously fold to the river raise

[Micro2Macro]

I think flatting can be okay vs this particular guy due to his very exploitable postflop cbet/barrel frequencies.

vs someone more balanced 3bet or fold seems best

thoughts?

[badgers]

is there a poster or something? That would explain his wtf-sizing and make your call ok. River seems like a pretty clear fold, I really doubt anyone vaguely competent is going to take this line as a bluff vs. your strong range in this spot.

Micro how are you going to combat this villain's cbet/barreling assuming this is HU? I think you can c/r flop a lot vs. this player on some boards and maybe lead a few boards too. But I can't see c/cing and floating OOP being that profitable as the low barrel % can also be indicative of him checking behind on the turn with surprisingly strong hands for pot control.

[Micro2Macro]

is there a poster or something? That would explain his wtf-sizing and make your call ok. River seems like a pretty clear fold, I really doubt anyone vaguely competent is going to take this line as a bluff vs. your strong range in this spot.

Micro how are you going to combat this villain's cbet/barreling assuming this is HU? I think you can c/r flop a lot vs. this player on some boards and maybe lead a few boards too. But I can't see c/cing and floating OOP being that profitable as the low barrel % can also be indicative of him checking behind on the turn with surprisingly strong hands for pot control.

c/r'ing, leading sometimes, c/c sometimes. depends on board texture, our image etc..

wouldn't really advocate floating many flops with like no equity tho

[KillsAids]

sorry for not replying before, idk why i got no emails that there was responses. The sizing is only weird because there's antes btw. I think the converter included the antes in the raise sizes.

[Jason]

I think folding pre-flop is the first best play. I don't consider 32% steal all that high and he's 18/14 and you know you're going to get barreled and 98s is a pretty mediocre hand. As played, I'd be pretty hard pressed to fold the river. If he liked his hand so much on the river, why not bet the turn in position? Unless he just woke up with pocket 8's (unlikely because you have an 8) or has something crazy like 57 or T7, my guess is his most likely holdings are something like AK, KQ, or making a move with JT or a backdoor diamond draw that missed. His PF bet is pretty high which makes it more likely he was just trying to pick up blinds with squat or had a nice hand like Aces, Kings, or AK. It's a very polarizing move that makes it tougher for him to have some of the hands you fear.

Understanding your image and history is important, too. Is this a blind war he's not letting go or does he never get out of line? Have you done battle before? With no other information, I definitely call and start taking better notes. Yes, sometimes he shows up with a set, better two pair, or even a str8, but I think you're good enough to be profitable.

[Micro2Macro]

I think folding pre-flop is the first best play. I don't consider 32% steal all that high and he's 18/14 and you know you're going to get barreled and 98s is a pretty mediocre hand. As played, I'd be pretty hard pressed to fold the river. If he liked his hand so much on the river, why not bet the turn in position? Unless he just woke up with pocket 8's (unlikely because you have an 8) or has something crazy like 57 or T7, my guess is his most likely holdings are something like AK, KQ, or making a move with JT or a backdoor diamond draw that missed. His PF bet is pretty high which makes it more likely he was just trying to pick up blinds with squat or had a nice hand like Aces, Kings, or AK. It's a very polarizing move that makes it tougher for him to have some of the hands you fear.

Understanding your image and history is important, too. Is this a blind war he's not letting go or does he never get out of line? Have you done battle before? With no other information, I definitely call and start taking better notes. Yes, sometimes he shows up with a set, better two pair, or even a str8, but I think you're good enough to be profitable.

since when does 18/14 mean aggro on all streets postflop? op's read is he cbets the flop too much and doesn't follow through often enough which is going to make it pretty easy to play pots when we flop just one pair.

aids what was your reasoning for calling pre? if he folds alot to 3bets then 3betting might be bettert than callling but how the f are you guys considering folding pre unless the bb is a squeeze monkey and we have a really bad image or something. guy is a weak reg you don't do anything to take advantage of that by folding in close spots because you don't want to have to *gasp* do a bit of hand reading (this isn't directed at you jason just everyone in general). seems like everyone is afraid about flopping 2nd pair or something and not knowing what to do.

[spoonitnow]

Pro tip: 28% barreling frequency is not high.

[KillsAids]

I didn't 3b cause it's a waste of a hand against someone who folds a ton to 3bets. I'd rather add small connectors to my 3b bluffing range and flat hands like T9s through like 87s and c/r a ton of flop or lead a ton of flops. When I flop top pair though, I won't bluff with it so I decide to c/c at least once

[Jason]

I guess my semantics are off, but I think of a "barrel" as the first cbet and the 2nd barrel as the turn follow-up. I assume the stat "barreling" refers to villain's propensity to fire the 2nd barrel. At any rate, what I meant was, we pretty much know we're facing at LEAST another bet after we call pre-flop.

I just think OOP with a mediocre hand against a semi-tight, aggressive player isn't a long term winning play. 98s is a nice multi-way pot hand ... in position. We are HU OOP. Most 18/14 PFR players I come across are not going to be especially pleasant to play against after they show initiative. If he has AK and we get top pair, how much money can we really extract? Then, if you flop top pair, as we did, how are you going to handle the likely overcard, which did happen in this hand? What kind of flop or board will get us villain's stack OOP? How likely is that board to happen?

Position is just so important not only because you can prevent yourself from losing money but also because it's so hard to EXTRACT money. It's not nearly as easy to get money from a villain when you're OOP.

I mean in this actual hand we get two pair and we're arguing the merits of calling versus folding. This is precisely why I don't like to get involved because you're often in these tough spots. It's worth pointing out that pre-flop mistakes lead to bigger post-flop mistakes.

But, like I said, as played, I think a call is fine.

[Micro2Macro]

fwiw he can also have 75s

doubt he's taking this line as a bluff, probably fold.

[caddie444]

This is a standard fold pre

no

I responded without realizing there were antes, which may make this hand playable but I still fold it pre. I'd much prefer 3B'ing to c'ing.

When we do flop some flush/straight draw or whatever is our plan to c/r/call a shove? Plus we're put into some really gay spots when he chooses just to call our c/r's. What do you do on a flop like op posted? c/c?

FWIW I'm a total nit from the blinds

[Micro2Macro]

I responded without realizing there were antes, which may make this hand playable but I still fold it pre. I'd much prefer 3B'ing to c'ing.

When we do flop some flush/straight draw or whatever is our plan to c/r/call a shove? Plus we're put into some really gay spots when he chooses just to call our c/r's. What do you do on a flop like op posted? c/c?

FWIW I'm a total nit from the blinds

lol @ getting into gay spots when he calls our c/r

let's say we have 9h8h and c/r Jh7d4d.

any heart improves our equity, any diamond we can barrel to rep a flush, any T gives us the nut straight, any 6 improves our equity as well and we can rep 76s that decided to c/r the flop rather than c/c. I suppose we could even barrel an ace because we can rep AQ/AJ/AT etc.

9 diamonds, 3 T's, 3 6's, 3 A's = 18 cards we can barrel on the turn that's almost 40% of the deck.

oh shit, forgot to add in any heart too, 10 hearts left so 28 cards to barrel that is over HALF the deck which will give us a decent barrel card (some may or may not be great depending on his range etc but just goes to show you how if you plan your hand in advance rather than think 'omg he called what do I do now' your decisions will become a lot smoother.

damn, after explaining that I realize I need to c/r more often.

[caddie444]

@ ^

hmmm I feel some learning happening here...

I think I may be underestimating how many flops we can profitably c/r and double barrel

To go further down the rabbit hole, assume he calls our double barrel and we miss, are we ever c/f'ing? Does the fact that a villain calls a turn bet after calling a flop c/r really narrow his range to the fact that we shouldn't be 3 Barreling? I realize this is a totally general question but I would assume it would depend on his ability to fold overpairs on the river + how stationy he is is with draws.

[KillsAids]

sure we could c/f a lot on the river. I don't expect medium strength hands to call flop and turn barrels a lot, so he gotta have something when he calls twice. It usually will depend on the board and how much it looks drawy, if it's obv we could have missed tons of draws, then i wouldnt bet, etc...

[Santo2True]

subscribing cause I love this thread... man, some great insight here

As of lately I have been doing a lot reading/watching on how to play suited connectors. I think they are one of the most underated starting hands. I like the way this hand played out until the river.
I think someone had said 3bet pre if you didn't want to fold and I think that is exactly what I would have done with the way I've been playing 56s+ It's actually pretty amazing how many flops complete these hands in one form or another