weirdo blockbet/value spot

[oskar]

HEM crashed while I tried to look up the stats, but nevermind. He was 30/10-ish It was his first 3-bet in 50-ish hands, and I think I had a note on bet sizing... anyway I thought QQ+ was a huge part of his range.

When I posted this in IRC I was expecting to get trashed for the turn call given reads, but haters hated the river bet, because "I never get called by worse".
My thinking there is: I want to bet something that will get called by QQ+ without a diamond. No, I'm not good over 50% when called, but if I check I might get valuebetbluffed by QQ+ without a diamond, and I can't call. Someone suggested c/c which makes my head explode like a watermelon.

Because I'm lazy I haven't figured out if I have equity to call the turn, but I'm pretty sure I don't unless villain can have dumb hands that I already beat.

$0.50/$1 Ante $0.20 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero ($179)
UTG+1 ($106.95)
MP1 ($31)
MP2 ($93.40)
CO ($99.55)
BTN ($100)
SB ($75.40)
BB ($102.40)

Pre-Flop: ($3.10, 8 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, CO raises to $7, 3 folds, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($17.10, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($27.10, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $11, Hero calls $11

River: ($49.10, 2 players)
Hero bets $12, CO folds

Final Pot: $61.10

Hero wins $58.65 (net +$23.45)

CO lost $23.20

[badgers]

I agree with you and not the irc haters. Turn bad river good.

[Micro2Macro]

yeah I don't like calling turn

c/c river is a really, really bad plan

I like your river play.

[Renton]

C/fing river is just fine too, but your line might be better. Turn call is fine, you definitely have the at least the breakeven amount of equity vs his range to call getting that price.

[spoonitnow]

... No, I'm not good over 50% when called ...

Fwiw, this isn't really the metric that matters when value betting most of the time, it's just something that's thrown around a lot because of the common and easy-to-understand beginner's example of checking behind a river or value betting without the chance of getting raised. If you're interested in a more mathy explanation there's a section in NLHE T&P (I think, might be PNL) where it talks about this but under a heading that's something like betting to prevent being bluffed.