200nl - playmaster time

[Micro2Macro]

villain is 15/11 reg we don't have any remarkable history

I doubt he ever has a boat or a flush here and is basically screaming he has an overpair that wanted to 'lol pot control' the turn (plus his river sizing looks alot like he's trying to get me to cry call with the TT type hands in my range and he'd never bluff like this often enough to bluff catch)

so I want to move him off it because I don't like to fold (my image is clean fwiw I'm not a 20vpip monkey) and it seems obvious he doesn't want to play a big pot (yeah I understand I only rep about 8 combos but it almost seems irrelevant given the player isn't that good at hand reading etc. hes not a big winner)

thoughts on sizing though? I don't want to make it too small so that he talks himself into hero calling QQ or some shit so I think maybe really bombing it to like $90-$100 would do it. I don't think this guy even considers ever doing shit like this so I doubt he'd think like 'oh well he must be turning 77 or TT into a bluff here I call' it's more like 'holy shit pot getting big I have one pair omg' if he was on that level he'd be playing higher

- or at least thats what I think and what inspired me to make a move.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($200)
UTG+1 ($209.65)
MP1 ($181.75)
MP2 ($125.90)
CO ($255)
BTN ($195.35)
Hero ($220.30)
BB ($65.70)

Pre-Flop: ($3, 8 players) Hero is SB
UTG raises to $6, 5 folds, Hero calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: ($14, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $10, Hero calls $10

Turn: ($34, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($34, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $22, Hero C/R's to?

$72
$88
$100+

cast your vote? or just berate me I don't care

[Micro2Macro]

fwiw I actually just 4bet him like 3-4 hands ago and he folded not sure if that would be of any relevance though because of this I feel like he's going to look to 'pot control' his range that has sd value that doesn't want to get raised on turn for fear has been instilled. though perhaps if I didn't just 4bet him he might actually barrel the turn for thinner value. meh.

[rpm]

not sure if it's relevant at 200nl but i found when i played 50nl that guys would be far less inclined to fold KK or AA here than JJ or QQ even though any overpair probably has the exact same equity seeing as we are repping a pretty polar range. i think you're right, he so rarely has a flush or a full house when he checks the turn, and if we do bet the river and he hero calls, i am expecting to see JJ+ a huge % of the time. i'm just not sure if he folds those hands. if it was me taking this line against a perceptive villain, i'd expect to get called because i probably never check the turn and river with a "nut" hand like a full house or strong flush (and i don't checkraise medium-strength hands unless i have a read which makes it appear profitable) so it looks like exactly what it is. but thats obviously dependent on what kind of lines you typically take (which i'm sure will be different to mine hence you play 200nl and i play 5nl) and if this guy is aware of them. do you ever check nut hands on the turn AND the river intending to C/R? as far as sizing goes i'm thinking that 72>88>100 because the more we bet the more i think villain will see through our three checks and make a hero call with AA or KK here. i may be giving too much credit to villain's thinking capacity, or i may be 100 levels below him and exhibiting lol fish logic. dont know.

[Micro2Macro]

do you ever check nut hands on the turn AND the river intending to C/R?

absolutely yes

[rpm]

well then i definitely like it far more now. do you typically 3bet AKs or AQs pre in this spot? just thinking how many flushes you can rep from villain's perspective. because the full houses are obviously super-thin, like 6 combos, and 1 of quads. so if he thinks you are capable of doin this with say, TT (6 combos), he doesn't need many bluff combos in your range to make a river call +EV, especially if he has AsAx or KsKx (discounting flushes). obv. i don't know near enough about how 200nl plays to be able to comment with much credibility.

[oskar]

Check out the balls on m2m!
I like c/r, and I'd c/r big. $102 imo

[OhioRounder]

If you're gonna pump it, go all the way. I vote +$100

[aka_red]

why don't you think calling is an option?

[Micro2Macro]

why don't you think calling is an option?

I imagine he'd be more likely to barrel the turn as a bluff if he has something like AK or AQ (espec if he had a spade?) so that would cut down the amount of air combos he has getting to the river.

I guess his line would be reasonable though as a bluff because he very credibly represents a made hand betting for value. If he's on this level then that would be a good reason to call + we're getting a good price to look him up. However I didn't think he was so much on that level since taking that line as a bluff actually requires some thought - but perhaps I'm not giving him enough credit in the first place and should pay more attention to his future actions in similar spots.

[Deanglow]

I prefer a dry board because you wouldn't do this with a flush

[Renton]

I think check raising here is an awesome play, 88.

[Renton]

I prefer a dry board because you wouldn't do this with a flush

wat

[Renton]

The reason this is a good play is because its such a stretch for you to be expected to turn a hand as strong as you have into a bluff, and its hard for you to have a weaker hand than you have. You basically have 66-99 or a flush 95% of the time here when you c/r, and its exactly how you would play those hands.

[Micro2Macro]

I think check raising here is an awesome play, 88.

this is exactly what I was thinking after reviewing everyone's response cuz it's such a sick level with the 8 on board and it gives us a better price than making it >$100, and perhaps somehow even has more fold equity lol.

[nutsinho]

agree w/ renton fwiw