JJ, K high flop ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp's stats were 22/11 but that was only over about 10 hands.

Thoughts? Who bets the flop and if so, how much? I pretty much have to call the river getting 2:1, right?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 27 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 (t1355)
CO (t1550)
Hero (Button) (t1435)
SB (t1320)
BB (t1490)
UTG (t1520)
MP1 (t4830)

Hero's M: 31.89

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J
1 fold, MP1 bets t95, MP2 calls t95, 1 fold, Hero raises to t300, 2 folds, MP1 calls t205, 1 fold

Flop: (t740) 7, K, 2 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets t350, MP1 calls t350

Turn: (t1440) 3 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks

River: (t1440) 4 (2 players)
MP1 bets t785, Hero ????

[Fielmann]

Pre: That early I usually just call with JJ, playing a well-disguised hand with lots of potential in position, rather than raise with it, playing a big pot with vulnerable hand.

Flop: I'd check behind, mostly because I can't find a bet-size I'd like.
1) Betting half a pot after having 3-bet pre doesn't look convincing at all. If villain likes his hand enough to call a 3-bet, he's rarely folding to such a weak bet that's giving him nice odds.
2) Betting close to pot size leaves us quite committed. If we're then raised all-in, we have a tough decision.
3) Shoving all-in makes villain fold all his flush draws and (more importantly) lower pairs, while we're still getting called by Kx.

Turn is standard and river is a clear call as he's showing up with lower pairs/busted draws/random air a lot.

[drmcboy]

given the way I assume you play I think you should 3 bet close to 0 percent without a read and I def would not have JJ in there, you're over repping your hand.

"
1) Betting half a pot after having 3-bet pre doesn't look convincing at all. If villain likes his hand enough to call a 3-bet, he's rarely folding to such a weak bet that's giving him nice odds.
"
so he's going to continue with weak hands - why is that a bad thing? We are never folding Kx or a FD, so may as well get value from other hands. Generally your bets should be smaller on the flop in 3 bet pots, but here there are lots of other good reasons.

River I don't think you're good much more than 25%, I would call in MTT but you tell me if surviving is worth it. you're getting 3/1, PSBs lay 2/1, I would for sure fold if you had that much back.

[taipan168]

given the way I assume you play I think you should 3 bet close to 0 percent without a read and I def would not have JJ in there, you're over repping your hand.

I don't get what you mean by this, can you elaborate? The reason I 3-bet was to try to squeeze the cold caller out, to give me the initiative on the flop and also because he might call with worse, is this wrong thinking?

River I don't think you're good much more than 25%, I would call in MTT but you tell me if surviving is worth it. you're getting 3/1, PSBs lay 2/1, I would for sure fold if you had that much back.

Sorry, you're absolutely right, I'm getting 3:1 on the river. Surely after my turn check there's a reasonable percentage of bluffs on the river aren't there?

[drmcboy]

if they are level 0 it's fine which is why I mention reads, but I would much rather see the flop 3-5 way then specifically allow them to put you on JJ+. Even if he doesn't have a read on you either surely that's the default in a 20 (well, any $$ level sng). 3 bet AA, KK & AK sometimes and some stuff like JTs, Q9s-QJs, if you don't think calling with those hands is a good play (you're OOP or w/e).

If you're worried about stacking off with an over pair in a raised pot you should be really really worried about stacking off on any flop after you 3 bet with JJ.

back to the river - I think it's pretty much break even so I'll gamble for the bigger stack but you're the SNG guy. To me it looks like AK/KQ that now knows you don't have AA/KK, will be clubs sometimes and air more or less never. Again this goes back to pre, he more or less knows you have a hand.

[drmcboy]

thought of this thread after this hand, he gets about as good a spot as he could hope for and gets two small bets out of it. with deep stacks it's just really tough unless you have a crazy aggro image. you say you want the initiative, but which flops is that helping you on? I think you mean that you'll get a lot of folds, so why would you want to have JJ?

No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 75/150 Blinds (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

MP3 (t12523)
CO (t12574)
Button (t2372)
SB (t4330)
BB (t4360)
Hero (UTG) (t16625)
UTG+1 (t15451)
MP1 (t17469)
MP2 (t5732)

Hero's M: 73.89

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9, 9
Hero bets t420, UTG+1 raises t1050, 7 folds, Hero calls t630

Flop: (t2325) Q, 8, 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets t725, Hero calls t725

Turn: (t3775) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets t1225, Hero calls t1225

River: (t6225) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

Total pot: t6225

Results:
Hero had 9, 9 (one pair, nines).
UTG+1 had J, J (one pair, Jacks).
Outcome: UTG+1 won t6405