99 flopped set facing river action

[revolvingiris]

Stats are 22/15 and no reads really other than that. The only reason I checked was to see what his bet sizing on river would be. Plus I felt I would get more value based on him leading with all of his bluffs. Call, raise, fold?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 26 Tournament, 40/80 Blinds (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t2985)
Hero (UTG+1) (t4310)
MP1 (t4320)
MP2 (t2565)
MP3 (t12640)
CO (t3505)
Button (t3490)
SB (t5920)
BB (t1950)

Hero's M: 35.92

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9, 9
1 fold, Hero bets t200, 5 folds, SB calls t160, 1 fold

Flop: (t480) 4, 9, 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t280, SB calls t280

Turn: (t1040) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (t1040) 2 (2 players)
SB bets t1040, Hero ??

[lolzzz_321]

[drmcboy]

at least 3Q PS on flop, I don't think he folds worse made hands to 420 or if he does he'll fold them to this also. may as well charge draws that think they have more outs than they do and build big pot.

I'd call or shove river, never folding. with stacks call is probably better plus we know he doesn't have AQ/KQdd and he can't have Q9 very often either. but you both look FOS so I don't think shoving is bad.

[revolvingiris]

I was trying to look weak as you stated which is also where my flop mistake is (which you also stated). The real issue for me here is I couldn't put villain on a bluffing range and this certainly isn't a typical value bet. To me this bet looked very "I bet pot to look bluffy" or "I missed value by checking turn so, pot!".