Strategy hand from inside poker...

[Alpine021]

Was reading some SnG strategy from inside poker and surely this can't be right...

$50 SnG (whether the buy-in is totally - if at all relevant im not sure) blinds 25 / 50 with effective stacks of 1500 the button raises to 150.

Apparently the answer is to go all in. And this guy (Phil Shaw) is a SnG instructor for cardrunners.

So is this right and long term +ev? I understand the possible wide range but he could equally want action if unfortunately for him it's folded round and he has a big hand...?

[Nakamura]

Do you mean you are in the BB with ATC?

[taipan168]

If you mean you are in the BB with ATC, it totally depends on reads on the Button. If he/she is a calltard who will call very wide, then I can't imagine this play being +EV. If he/she is a serial stealer, then I can see this play being +EV.

[Tasha]

Might be better to raise to 6BB just in case. I'm guessing you are in the SB and everyone else has folded?
Shoving from the small blind in SNG is usually done only if everyone else has folded. If they haven't you shouldn't be shoving anyway.

[Alpine021]

Geezzz forgot to put the damn hand, lol. You have pocket 7s in the BB.

So as above. Shove long term +ev?

Also no reads. First orbit or thereabouts...

[drmcboy]

Assign BU a raise %, then decide what % he'll call with and run the numbers. Having people tell you it's + or - EV isn't doing you any good, someone already did that and you don't believe them.

The chip EV calc is fairly simple - profit from the times he folds + your equity in pot when he calls (amount of chips you win-amount chips you lose in showdown). If you want to add in ICM Tai has a post in the stickys that will walk you through that.

The $50 BI is important in that you should assume average player at those levels OTB is opening very wide, at least 25% but often closer to 50%, and he will also understand that he can't make a marginal call here for his whole stack. Many SNG players will fold 88 or AJ types here without even thinking much.

All that said I think 3 bet (call shove)/shove any flop is better.

[Nakamura]

Sounds like Phil Shaw might be looking at this from a Nash equilibrium perspective. If he raises too much 77 will be ahead of that range. If he is uber-tight, then he isn't stealing enough even if you are behind his range. By shoving you are unexploitable, but probably not optimal if you are not paying attention to your opponent.

[TLR]

Lets run some numbers
Assume BB raise with 30% of hands but only calls with AA,KK,QQ,JJ, AK, AQ (which is about 4.5% hands)
4.5/30 = 15% call, 85% fold
EV: 0.85*(1500+225)+(24/56)*0.15*0.2*3025+(32/56)*0.15*0.5*3025 = 1635

So from pure EV point of view this is a EV+ move given those ranges