JJ bubble against ATC

[fulksy]

button has been shoving or raising 90% of the time, has been super loose all game, and is essentially shoving ATC. i have 0 FE he called a shove earlier after raising with 10,7. whats my shoving range. bb is tight and will fold anything but a monster.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 12 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (3 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t6175)
Hero (SB) (t1820)
BB (t1005)

Hero's M: 6.07

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, J
Button bets t700, hero

[RockyMoose]

Especially since this is post-bubble, it's a very easy shove. You want him to call since you are so far ahead of his range (ATC!). You doubling up here and make taking 1st a real possibility.

Put another way, if you don't shove here, what are you waiting for?

(I'd guess you are 70% to win here, but maybe someone will run the software and tell you for sure.)

Edit: oh, is this a 6-handed tournament and you are on the bubble? Sorry, of course. I missed that. Still, I think this is a shove, but now I see the dilemma. I'm curious now if my instinct to shove here is wrong.

[taipan168]

I ran this in SNG Wiz with Button opening 80% (and of course always calling a shove) and BB calling only with JJ+, AK and this was very solidly +EV. Using these ranges Wiz suggests shoving over with TT (and interestingly for the other thread below, not AK).

[fulksy]

and i assume moving his range to 90-95% only improves our EV? is this one orbit away from being a fold say BB stack was 700?

i haven't got SngWiz yet haven't been able to play much so haven't invested in it, but i thought this would be closer then what it sounds.

[paratrooper99]

BB has 3 orbits to make a move or he is done. Since he is a tight player, I would fold here and shove on him with any 2 in next SB as long as villian doesnt get involved.

[taipan168]

BB has 3 orbits to make a move or he is done. Since he is a tight player, I would fold here and shove on him with any 2 in next SB as long as villian doesnt get involved.

Don't think that BB being blinded out in 3 orbits is quite enough to give up the large amount of expected value we have in this spot. A lot can happen in 3 orbits - if BB doubles up we will be kicking ourselves for folding JJ here. If BB was AI on the next hand it would be different though.

[drmcboy]

is it the bubble? If not let's pretend it is.

[fulksy]

yea it was 6 handed, so this is bubble.

[FlyingSaucy]

3 orbits assuming he's sitting out/folding all and never getting a pushable hand and never doubling in the meantime. I agree with tai, you can't pass up value now hoping shorty will remain card dead or get unlucky.

[3 pairs should be a hand]

I most certainly don't see this as a pass. As said you cannot rely on shorty not to make a comeback. I see them (comebacks) happen over n over in DONs that I watch my friend play.
You can't sit back n wait. Yes the adage is to be the shover not the caller and here while you are in effect the shover seen as you know you are going to be called your action will result in a board and you have will have to holdup at showdown.
So do Jacks look strong enough preflop to entertain this. Well wiz says yes. But even without wiz you can analyse your opponents likely holdings. How many hands are you behind to? How many are you racing with and how many are you dominating.
Moshman has a nice simple chart of probablities. The ICM take on it is one answer but looking at the probablilities is another quick and easy way to come to a conclusion live, while ICM has to be done in retrospect and I guess eventually you'll know what the ICM answer is live too once you've wizzed enough.
My immediate thought was tho that JJs win rate justifies seeing a board in this situation, however, in others it would be a pass. Not easy poker, is it?

[TLR]

I would shove it, your stack is not big enough and BB stack is not short enough to justify a fold

[TLR]

Ran ICM calc on it

65/35 prize distribution
BB folds 100% of the time and villian folds 0% of the time

Calling and winning gives you 43% of the prize pool, folding gives you 30% of the prize pool

so you need to be about 69% favorite to justify a call, you are about a 76% favorite if he opens with 90% of hands, and the breakeven point is about 40% of hands