$75, flop set IP, turn brings 4straight

[fjuanl]

Villain is unknown to me, so far he's 31/23 thru 15 hands. BTN is by far the worst player at table from what I've seen (he called a raise with 93s BB and c/c 2barrel with fd on JJ4Q). Seems like every street could be debated!

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 20/40 Blinds (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t3350)
UTG (t5225)
UTG+1 (t4705)
MP1 (t3355)
MP2 (t3755)
MP3 (t3125)
Hero (CO) (t2320)
Button (t1940)
SB (t2885)

Hero's M: 38.67

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4, 4
2 folds, MP1 bets t120, 2 folds, Hero calls t120, 2 folds, BB calls t80

Flop: (t380) 8, 6, 4 (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets t220, 1 fold, MP1 calls t220

Turn: (t820) 7 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero ...

[drmcboy]

pre I think is OK as long as table mostly passive

I'd go 275 on flop but w/e

Now I'd bet call, too many scare cards can come

[fjuanl]

I think we're ahead of his range on the turn; its pretty hard to make sets or have 5x from MP1.

But what types of hands c/c flop that I can get value from on the turn and river? If I check back turn am I going to make a mistake on the river often?

[revolvingiris]

I think top pairs, over pairs, and draws will call turn bets. Villain isnt likely to have a 6 or a 4 that often so it seems like the only thing that would fold the turn is absolute air and that is probably folding on the flop.

I would probably bet around 500-650 here...I like weighting my bet size a little heavy in this spot since there are so many draws in his range but we might fold out some 8x hands by going too much.

[fjuanl]

Lets give him a specific range. I wanna get into gross detail with this hand

First preflop. He's opening with 6 people behind him so you would expect a somewhat tight range. The HUD stats suggest that he could be playing looser than normal. We could get into weighted ranges to make things more accurate (ie: he opens 97s preflop 50% of the time)

[revolvingiris]

Kind of hard to read but how does this look for a range?

AA,KdKh,KdKs,KhKs,QhQs,JhJs,ThTs,9h9s,88,7d7h,7d7s ,7h7s,66,5h5s,AsKs,AsQs,JhTh,JsTs,Tc9c,Th9h,Ts9s,T h8h,Ts8s,Th7h,Ts7s,9h8h,9s8s,97s,8h7h,8s7s,86s,7h6 h,7s6s,75s,AhKs,AsKh,AhQs,AsQh

I mean his stats indicate that he will open with a wide range of hands that all include sooooted connectors. I dont think position is something terribly important to these types of players.

[fulksy]

i def Bet / call

id give him a bit tighter of a range maybe 10,9s+, J9s+, Q9s+, k9s+, A2s+, J10+, Q10+, k10+, A7+, 22+. although you might have to add smaller SC a small % of the time. and i think maybe he limps 22-66 a high % of the time.

[drmcboy]

Not sure if people are doing pre flop or flop but I don't think he'd check call this board with bare overs.

[fjuanl]

Here's my guess on what he c/c's the flop using fulsky's preflop range

99-JJ - 33% frequency

QQ+ - 50% frequency

66 - 33% [its low if we think he limps with it often]

88 - 66%

8x (A8o,A8s, T8s, 98s, 87s, 86s) - ~33%

Draws (97s, T7s, T9s) - 25%

75s - 25%

Weak sd (A6s, A4s, 77, 55, 76s, 65s) - 50%

It looks pretty similar to revolvings except I don't think JT, AK, AQ ever c/c's flop at these stakes.

I also guessed that draws would cbet the flop more (seems a little odd to take a passive line as PFR), which is why I was considering checking back turn and not so worried about draws

Vs this range we're around 79.6% on the flop and 66% on the turn.
If you look only at the hands we're ahead of on the turn, we're 88.8% [these hands are 99-AA, A8o, A8s, A6s, A4s, T8s, 98s, 86s, 76s]

[revolvingiris]

I agree its not likely he would c/c with A high but I also wouldn't think it was likely he would check this flop either and yeah get JT out of there...

[drmcboy]

based on 30/20

very low chance he open limps anything.

he won't check a set on this board much/ever.

55-AA without the sets make sense to me, as do gut shots and weak combo draws like 65. I think he would bet 8x with a gutter but might check 8x without.

[fulksy]

my range was preflop.

i think he checks a set a decent % of the time here, especially after BB checks, but obviously a 30/20 thats a very small part of his range.

i agree 55-AA (no set) and draws makes up the majority of range but, i really cant see two many gutshots check calling that bet. and how many drawing hands that include a 5 were in his preflop range?

i say his c/c range is 55-AA (sometimes include sets), A8, A6, and maybe 98s and a few draws 87s,109s. (also agree most draws bet flop so i would weight those hands a bit lower.)

your equity vs that range ~73% i bet/c turn as i think the majority of his flop c/c range is calling the turn as well.