$10cubed, 50bb with nut flushdraw facing heat

[fjuanl]

UTG is a little wild, running 43/21 thru 120 hands. I have notes that he's restolen 25bbs with 63o and raise/called all-in for 25bbs with KJs. He's cbet in 8/9 chances. He's a winning player thru 4k MTTs on Stars (abi=40) BTN is unknown.

Thoughts on raising flop? What should I do now?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 11 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP2) (t8770)
MP3 (t14665)
CO (t8965)
Button (t5320)
SB (t4050)
BB (t16630)
UTG (t7490)
UTG+1 (t6775)
MP1 (t10200)

Hero's M: 38.98

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q, A
UTG bets t450, 2 folds, Hero calls t450, 2 folds, Button calls t450, 2 folds

Flop: (t1575) 2, J, 5 (3 players)
UTG bets t750, Hero calls t750, Button raises to t1500, UTG raises to t6450, Hero ...

[Tasha]

Even if you put him on KJs you still have over 50% equity so that points to a raise.

[drmcboy]

I'd raise flop, I guess to make BU fold hands that have you beat but mostly because ZOMG FD OVERSsss cram etc. If you raise you cannot be made to fold!

that said zero chance I'm folding to the min raise/clown shove, I guess if you called it was to fold now? If the money's going in, may as well try and win the pot once and it seems much safer/better on the flop.

[Tasha]

... but mostly because ZOMG FD OVERSsss cram etc. If you raise you cannot be made to fold!

Er, could you explain that?

[drmcboy]

I just mean I'm never folding the nut flush draw and two overs with this stack/pot size. It can't be a big mistake to get the money in but it could be a huge mistake to fold. The times when that is true in Hold em are rare and I'm not going to waste them playing passively.

[revolvingiris]

Im shoving over on the flop...as playing I am folding to the BTN raise and hating life.

[fjuanl]

Whats the main concern with calling flop? I could still call most turns right? Effective stacks would be 7570 into a pot of 3075.

I was thinking I'm ahead/dominating a good amount of a LAG's range with just AQ high. Do you think its unlikely I'll be able to get him to fold 66-TT after calling flop?

[drmcboy]

what are the benefits to calling?

quick list of good things about raising:

BU might fold as good as AJ and will fold lots of hands that have equity against us.

Calling gives UTG cheap price to hit whatever he has.

Tough to play our hand after calling because we don't know if A or Q are good outs.

I think UTG is more likely to fold 66-TT on the flop. If the turn is a blank he may put you on the draw and commit. If we hit the turn he isn't paying us off with those hands. But if he has AJ/QJ we're paying him off (i think?)

[mcatdog]

what are the benefits to calling?

He's likely to put us on something like 99 or Jx and barrel all of the cards that improve our hand.

Oh and as played it's an easy gamble.

[drmcboy]

@ gris - we have 21% vs JJ and 34ss so I don't think we can fold.

@ mcat - I guess I like my assumptions better than yours. Plus even if calling is better vs UTG it may not be better with BU in?

@ mcat or juan - what is your plan on the various turns - also do they change if BU comes along?

[mcatdog]

I'm not making any assumptions. You implied that calling has no advantages, but I think it's clearly better to call and get it in on any turn against people who are overly barrel-happy. Without that read my default is obviously to get it in on the flop.

As for your last question I can't think of a turn scenario where I'm not getting it in.

[drmcboy]

I don't think there is a difference between an assumption and a read in this context but if you do and you think assumptions are bad I apologize, was not my intent.

There are benefits to calling, I just think they are substantially outweighed by the benefits to raising.

Am I putting too much value in getting the BU out? For me the fact that we don't really know if UTG two barrels a lot means it must be close vs just him so why not raise it now and hopefully get HU.

[revolvingiris]

The pot odds I am getting are 38% and I only have fjuanl at 33.6% equity after the raising:

Hand 0: 33.656% { AsQs }
Hand 1: 28.779% { JJ+, 5d5h, 5d5s, 5h5s, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2h2s, AcJc, AdJd, AhJh, AJo }
Hand 2: 37.565% { AcAd, AcAh, AdAh, KcKd, KcKh, KdKh, QcQd, QcQh, QdQh, JcJd, JcJh, JdJh, 5c5d, 5c5h, 5d5h, 2c2h, 2c2s, 2h2s, AcJc, AdJd, AhJh, AcJd, AcJh, AdJc, AdJh, AhJc, AhJd }

[drmcboy]

BU doesn't have big pairs much at all and has a lot more Jx in his range along with spade draws. And UTG is running 43/21 so you have to add some sc spades in there too and maybe KJ. I'm not sure who is who in that list.

[mcatdog]

Also what's up with calculating our equity 3-way but using pot odds we need to get HU? Apples to oranges.

[drmcboy]

revolvingodds imo

[revolvingiris]

Button will fold some % of the time, this was my quick way of accounting for that.