AK on the bubble

[dneureiter]

Hero's M = 18.50
PokerStars Game #47276156372: Tournament #295206118, $5.00+$1.25+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2010/07/25 20:03:07 PT [2010/07/25 23:03:07 ET]
Table '295206118 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: ajax7mm (1512)
Seat 3: Hero (4163)
Seat 6: WalktheNose (4515)
Seat 9: plumbwild (3310)
plumbwild: posts small blind 75
ajax7mm: posts big blind 150
Preflop
Dealt to Hero A K
Hero: raises 225 to 375
WalktheNose: calls 375
plumbwild: folds
ajax7mm: folds
Flop: A 2 J
Hero: bets 562
WalktheNose: raises 638 to 1200
Hero: says.... uh ok. Don't really want to stack here vs. bigstack

No specific reads. guy is a little loose, not overly aggressive.
I don't think he's toying too often here but he could have a flush draw or be going for value with worse. Mainly I wonder how much wider is his range than KcQc AJ and 22. It just sucks that this is on the bubble and I'm obviously pot committed if I go on. Do i say meh and get it in?

[D_Fray]

even tho im on the bubble. i think i would have called. I think he was trying to scare you out the pot with nothing or @ best A high (with lower kicker) probably way lower.

[rong]

I would say his range is way wider than that. Need more of a read to have any accuracy, but certainly wider than what you have said.

[fulksy]

I would say his range is way wider than that. Need more of a read to have any accuracy, but certainly wider than what you have said.

yea theirs some pretty weak players at the 5's, without a good read i would say he has quite a few FDs, Ax's,to obv go along with hands that beat you. if the short stack was way lower say 2-3 BB i would say def. fold. but with ss at >10 bb i think i Jam, its defiantly fold or shove.

Obviously reads are important if he is passive and usually just calls with draws then you would adjust his range.

AKo
Vs.
A8o+ A7s+, AA, JJ, 22, KQc, KJc, K10c, K9c, QJc, Q10c, J10c

Your equity is ~61%, i would say that's a decent range that some one would call preflop and raise flop. obviously AA, JJ are rarer because they will usually raise preflop.

even against A9+ AA, JJ, 22, KQc, KJc, QJc, you still have 58% equity.



side note: Why can't i copy and paste from pokerstove???

[dneureiter]

thanks for the responses. Should have mentioned that my image was aggressive, cbetting most flops.

Yea, I actually scoped the guy afterwards and he's a b/e player @ 3 and 5 dollar games. He turned up AQs (obv not of clubs). I just flatted flop and checked to him on the turn... hoping he'd barrel me off if he had air. I guess that's bad if he has a flush draw and checks but I think he's rarely doing that once he minraises flop and I can shove any river to get it in with worse aces.


Fulksy, you just highlight the output and Ctrl+C and then paste... oddly no menu comes up when i right click but the shortcut works...

[fulksy]

yea if i'm continuing on the flop just shove, if FD folds that's good on the bubble here, most players at the $5's are going to stack off to you on the flop with AQ anyways so no need to flat. and i really doubt he ever has air here.

thanks, yea i was just right clicking.

[Fielmann]

Tough spot. Reads and stats are very important here.
In a vacuum, based on villain's calling ranges that fulksy suggested, I actually like a fold, even if in the heat of the battle I'd have very hard time laying it down.