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33 flops a set on drawy board, river decision?

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  1. #1

    Default 33 flops a set on drawy board, river decision?

    This is a $12/180, second hand with no reads on opp other than 11/0 over 19 hands. What's your river move? Happily get 'em in or check/call?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 12 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    CO (t1500)
    Button (t1480)
    SB (t1720)
    Hero (BB) (t1500)
    UTG (t1500)
    UTG+1 (t1500)
    MP1 (t1500)
    MP2 (t1300)
    MP3 (t1500)

    Hero's M: 50.00

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 3, 3
    UTG calls t20, 3 folds, MP3 calls t20, 1 fold, Button calls t20, SB calls t10, Hero checks

    Flop: (t100) 3, 4, A (5 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets t90, 1 fold, MP3 calls t90, Button calls t90, 1 fold

    Turn: (t370) 7 (3 players)
    Hero bets t300, MP3 calls t300, Button calls t300

    River: (t1270) 6 (3 players)
    Hero ????
  2. #2
    It's a tough spot, I think bet fold like 350 is best. HU I would assume clubs and c/c but here it seems like one of them probably has Aces up and 3 way I don't think missed clubs will bluff at it.
  3. #3
    fulksy's Avatar
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    can you explain bet sizing on river, seems to small of a value bet into ~ a 1300 pot, especially if you put a guy on Aces up, as i'm sure he's calling a bigger bet.

    or is it because it gives you room to B/F were a bigger bet would commit you. and maybe that it also leaves opponent enough chips that he thinks that he's not crippled if he calls.

    why b/f i assume that if a guys bad enough to slow play an over set on this board with 2 players that could have a FD, then I'm sure he would do the same with aces up. and 5x seems pretty unlikely given the action.
  4. #4
    I just don't think anything worse than 5x will call a shove and I think betting over half our stack looks even more scary than a shove and it's horrible if we get shoved on from there.

    Someone could have Ax with missed clubs (or even without trying to make sure clubs don't come) and again I don't think will call a big bet but might call something, and that hand for sure checks behind. You might even get two calls from Ax and two pair!

    Even if you don't think they have a 5, which I don't understand, we were in the BB and 5x is for sure in our range. A5, 25,35,45 & 65 all make sense.
  5. #5
    fulksy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy View Post
    I just don't think anything worse than 5x will call a shove and I think betting over half our stack looks even more scary than a shove and it's horrible if we get shoved on from there.

    Someone could have Ax with missed clubs (or even without trying to make sure clubs don't come) and again I don't think will call a big bet but might call something, and that hand for sure checks behind. You might even get two calls from Ax and two pair!

    Even if you don't think they have a 5, which I don't understand, we were in the BB and 5x is for sure in our range. A5, 25,35,45 & 65 all make sense.
    thanks was just wondering, that all makes sense.
  6. #6
    Sabr1988's Avatar
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    Bet 350 and if u get min-reraised or reraised AI, well i would do the fold!

    Their ranges could easily be 5Ksuited/5Asuited/56suited/5Qsuited/54suited could easily be in their ranges, then comes all the A with good kicker, thats why you gotta do some kind of value bet. At least.
    With patience you win

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