aa vs royal board

[Zorkion]

Im not sure if I played this quite right, so tell me what you guys think. villain was 11/0 after about 17 hands.


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 2.25 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t665)
UTG (t2640)
UTG+1 (t2310)
MP1 (t1430)
MP2 (t1415)
Hero (CO) (t2560)
Button (t1350)
SB (t1130)

Hero's M: 34.13

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A
4 folds, Hero bets t150, Button calls t150, 2 folds

Flop: (t375) K, J, Q (2 players)
Hero bets t200, Button raises to t450, Hero raises to t2410 (All-In), Button calls t750 (All-In)

Turn: (t2775) K (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t2775) 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t2775

[baudib]

This is about as bad a flop as it gets, I actually thinking c/c 1 street and c/f turn or B/F is OK if effective stacks were bigger...as is getting it in is OK.

[drmcboy]

yeah at 15/30 don't get it in but here not much choice.

Bet more on flop so you can shove the turn if you want.

[losttrem]

I'm guessing 2.25 is the BI. Tbh I wouldn't second guess going broke with an overpair ever in a $2 tournament.

[fulksy]

is b/f, really that bad here? we don't beat a lot here, except maybe a combo draw or something. i doubt K10 or worse raise on this flop.

[Yabasa]

I just set this up in PokerStove and you have approximately 35% equity here if you assume you're up against TPTK or better.

Board: Ks Jc Qc
Dead:

equity win tie
Hand 0: 34.790% 31.69% 03.10% { AdAh }
Hand 1: 65.210% 62.11% 03.10% { JJ+, AKs, ATs, KJs+, QJs, AKo, ATo, KJo+, QJo }

This means you are a 1.86:1 dog at this point against that range.

Seen as you have pretty much zero fold equity and you know he's calling your shove, you're paying 1000 to win 1775 so the pot is giving odds of 1.78:1. So a shove isn't profitable here assuming that range is correct.


If you look at your chances of improving to a better hand against that range on the turn only, its approximately 29%. I don't know if you can do that in PokerStove so i just put in a brick turn and did the calculation for the river but it should be pretty close.

Board: Ks Jc Qc 2h
Dead:

equity win tie
Hand 0: 28.676% 26.65% 02.03% { AdAh }
Hand 1: 71.324% 69.30% 02.03% { JJ+, AKs, ATs, KJs+, QJs, AKo, ATo, KJo+, QJo }

So you're 2.45:1 against improving to a better hand on the turn and the pot is giving you over 4:1 to call so a call is profitable. So in this scenario if you improve on the turn ship it in and if you don't c/f.

That second calculation may be bullcrap, i'm not sure if it makes much sense, hopefully someone will correct me if it is.

[baudib]

villain's range on flop is a ton of combo draws as well...we do have a couple blockers to some of them.

[drmcboy]

I'd remove or at least discount JJ+.

[ManicLombax]

Yeah board is pretty scary, and at a $2.25 you'll definitely get a bunch of people that would call your pf raise with KQ, KJ as well as hands you beat like AK, AQ, AJ. Flop raise means he probably has at least top pair. He could have JJ, QQ, probably would have 3-bet KK but who knows. I might slow down rather than shoving on the flop. But on the other hand if he does have AK he's going to be anxious to get it all in anyhow.

I've busted out early a couple of times like this in the $2.25's. I think you double up more often than you lose because people get so excited about TPTK.

I've also seen a number of people in $2.25's over-betting madly on flush draws. They see 2 matching suited cards on the board and they're ready to go all in even though they only have 2:1 odds to hit it over the next 2 cards.