Two Pairs Facing River CR from Nit 50NL

[Sup3rM4N]

Villain is running 16/11 after 500ish hand and is quite tight pre and post and folds a lot 3b and never 4bets. I have been quite active on this table something like 27/24 and 3betting quite a bit as well. A little confused on the river. I almost want to snap call but any reason not to?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($56.80)
MP ($53.70)
Hero (Button) ($72.20)
SB ($74.60)
BB ($50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with ,
1 fold, MP bets $1, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, MP calls $3

Flop: ($8.75) , , (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($8.75) (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $5.50, MP calls $5.50

River: ($19.75) (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $10, MP raises to $44.20 (All-In)

[meeloche]

I'd pay him off. Don't really get what he's doing.

[kmind]

I call river but not sure about 3betting this guy with T2s

[pocketfours]

KK?

[Mr. Diamond]

KK?

I don't think he would just min raise pre, and why he would check the turn??


- L_Clan_Sup3rMaN - some reads on that min raise pre??

[Silly String]

Almost seems like a slow played AA by a nit trying to stack your AK. I call. I think the dead money makes this a call without AK. If you can include say 4 combos of AK then it is definitely a call.
Board: 8d 7s 2h Th Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.368% 47.37% 00.00% 9 0.00 { Ts2s }
Hand 1: 52.632% 52.63% 00.00% 10 0.00 { KK+, TT, 88-77, AKs }

[griffey24]

I would call this.

I would expect a lot of the hands that now beat us (KT,888,777) to lead the turn.

Especially after your river sizing, I feel even more inclined to call.

[Genitruc]

title of the thread makes this an easy fold

[vaks]

why are we 3 betting T2s here? If he is pretty tight pre then this seems like a hand we should be folding here instead?

[leftygrove]

absolutely brutal spot but nits don't bluff raise here, nor do they value bet worse.

[baudib]

I would call this.

I would expect a lot of the hands that now beat us (KT,888,777) to lead the turn.

Especially after your river sizing, I feel even more inclined to call.

When lines from nits make no sense, don't they have the nuts?

[Genitruc]

i think this would be a close fold w 222

[griffey24]

Yah you guys are right, I overlooked the nit factor. Even if this doesn't make sense, he's more liable to have been slow playing and now raising us, than running a nonsense bluff.

[jackvance]

He might have J9

[Micro2Macro]

i think this would be a close fold w 222

lol

you guys have to at least take into account some random spazz and not just put him on 3 combos. he could be value betting worse, our hand is massively under-repped given we delay cbet even though he's probably bad and likely can't hand read very well he surely never puts us on KK/AA.

I'd pay him off. Don't really get what he's doing.

+1

[Lyric]

Villain is running 16/11 after 500ish hand and is quite tight pre and post and folds a lot 3b and never 4bets. I have been quite active on this table something like 27/24 and 3betting quite a bit as well. A little confused on the river. I almost want to snap call but any reason not to?




UTG ($56.80)
MP ($53.70)
Hero (Button) ($72.20)
SB ($74.60)
BB ($50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with ,
1 fold, MP bets $1, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, MP calls $3

Flop: ($8.75) , , (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($8.75) (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $5.50, MP calls $5.50

River: ($19.75) (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $10, MP raises to $44.20 (All-In)

What % of 3 bets is he calling? What's his range after he calls the 3-bet?

[Lyric]

Villain is running 16/11 after 500ish hand and is quite tight pre and post and folds a lot 3b and never 4bets. I have been quite active on this table something like 27/24 and 3betting quite a bit as well. A little confused on the river. I almost want to snap call but any reason not to?




UTG ($56.80)
MP ($53.70)
Hero (Button) ($72.20)
SB ($74.60)
BB ($50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with ,
1 fold, MP bets $1, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, MP calls $3

Flop: ($8.75) , , (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($8.75) (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $5.50, MP calls $5.50

River: ($19.75) (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $10, MP raises to $44.20 (All-In)

Even if he's a huge nit and does this only with AA, sets, two pair, and straights, AND he gets to the flop with hands like 78 and 89, you still must call. Even if he never does this with AA or AK you still must call.

The only way you can fold is if you think he doesn't do this with AA, and never gets to the flop with 78 and 89. You have about 40% equity vs the guy who does this with AA and all two pair/sets. You have to pay 18% of the final pot to see a showdown. Call.

[Lyric]

i think this would be a close fold w 222

You're committed unless you think he only does this with two pair or a set, never sees a flop with 78 or 89, never has AA, and never bluffs.

[Lyric]

I don't think he would just min raise pre, and why he would check the turn??


- L_Clan_Sup3rMaN - some reads on that min raise pre??

Nits min raise all the time, and slow play AA and sets like this all the time. They love to slow play, it's in their nature.

[caddie444]

My opinion is that this is 77,88,10-10,KK 90% of the time. Also op said that he folds to a lot of 3B's so 3B'ing here is obv fine since it's still profitable even if we never win post flop.

[Genitruc]

lyric after moving down from 10-20 all the way to cheeseburgers i would have to say that something like 90-95% of the time I am HERO in this spot and call I am not good. it s crazy, irrational but oh well. let's just say that folding in a spot like this isn't the leak that caused me to move down!

I'm not saying I would fold in the hand posted here, Maybe I'm just running like death over the past 250k hands but I think vs a nit here we should be making exploitatively tight folds. He just isn't bluffing often (under 5% of the time, probably never lol) and I haven't seen AA played like this by a nitty player in forever.